Some final thoughts on Census 2023 projections:
1- From 2024 to 2050…Census projects the US population to grow 25+ million —The native-born US population projected to grow 1 million… —Immigration projected to account for the other 24 million…
2- Bulk of that immigration will come “illegally” from Central America and South America. These immigrants have the lowest levels of secondary education and among lowest savings, income, and access to credit.
3- These immigrants are entering America among a cost-of-living inflationary crisis where-in native-born young adults are struggling to earn adequate income and thus record #’s still living with parents.
4- The level of poverty among these immigrants is, and is likely to remain, significantly above the national averages.
5- By my #’s, US is at “full employment” and a job loss recession is inevitable (as the Fed’s interest rate policy is meant to achieve). These immigrants will be disproportionately laid off first, and longest…with the least savings/access to credit to ride out the storm.
6- Will UBI or MMT be focused on these immigrants to maintain those already in the US (avoiding an outflow) and continue to attract even more?
Please note I’m in no way anti-immigration (the US is a nation of immigrants) but a far more thoughtful and purposeful approach to immigration seems necessary than the current chaotic, de facto open border policy.
Regarding the America’s South of the Rio Grande…it should be common knowledge now that they have been depopulating, from the bottom-up for decades. This is not the perpetual fountain of US population growth it once was considered to be.
Even with the Census immigration projections (immigrants are primarily young adults)…Census projects the under 45-year-old US population will decline by 7 million by 2050…while the 45+ year-old population will increase by 30 million. Give that a ponder.
Focusing in on the US projected working age population (even bolstered by immigration), this level of population growth supports an average of about 19k new jobs monthly through 2050 (btw, most of the growth happens post 2030…suggesting essentially no labor (job) growth is supported through the remainder of the 2020’s). For those unclear about what this means; potential employee growth=potential housing unit growth…no potential employee growth=no potential housing demand growth).
Econophysics2020 