Outstanding piece by Peter Hanseler
To understand Russia’s current strength, attitude and strategy, one must understand the developments since 1990. Only then will one understand why President Putin is doing what he is doing and why he will be successful. Analysis.
Peter Hänseler
This article was also published on ZeroHedge: https://voicefromrussia.ch/russland-gewinnt-europa-verliert-usa-lasst-europa-hangen/
Development since 1990
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was at its lowest point. Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s first president, was unable to lift the country out of its misery. There were concrete reasons for this, which can be found both inside and outside Russia.
In an article by Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Matt Tahibi, whose explosiveness and importance cannot be overestimated, entitled ” Economist Jeffrey Sachs Reveals How Neocons Subverted Russia’s Financial Stabilization In Early 1990s ,” both transparently reveal the US strategy towards the Soviet Union and Russia from 1990 onwards.
The West – under the leadership of the USA – pursued an unmistakable strategy of destruction. Sachs provides first-hand evidence that Poland, which later became a member of the EU and NATO, was helped back on its feet from 1989 onwards with billions in aid from the G7, the IMF and other Western institutions – very successfully.
The situation with Russia was completely different. Russia was never meant to become a partner of the West, and Professor Sachs shows how he failed as an advisor to Gorbachev and then to Yeltsin to organize support from the West. The USA’s goal was not to restore Russia to health, but to break it up into small, digestible portions, which would then be taken over by the USA through puppets. This plan is still being pursued with enormous effort and has reached its current climax in the war in Ukraine. We reported on this last summer in an article: ” The planned dismemberment of Russia .”
The climax of the road to Russia’s destruction occurred in the late summer of 1998, when Russia’s economy collapsed, the ruble lost 99.9% of its value and the state was unable to service its debts. The United States was almost at the goal of its dreams.
Things turned out differently – a previously inconspicuous and unknown man came to the levers of power – Vladimir Putin.
The development of Russia under President Putin
In 1999, President Yeltsin first appointed Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister. On the last day of the same year, he was then installed as acting President of the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin, the new president, was faced with the ruins of a once feared world power. The economy was in ruins, the infrastructure practically non-existent, the people disillusioned. A few oligarchs who had grabbed the best parts of Russia with the help of American investment banks controlled politics in order to steal even more at the expense of the general public. The army – always the backbone of the Russian state – was a shadow of its former self and NATO’s eastward expansion was in full swing.
In short, Russia was in a deplorable state and many observers did not give the country much chance of survival as a unit.
President Putin achieved the impossible. First, he publicly disempowered the oligarchs politically. He ensured that wages, salaries and, above all, pensions were gradually paid again – regularly and in accordance with the law. In doing so, he created a basis for later trust. As a result, foundations were laid in all areas of life and the economy that made the later upturn possible.
The few words used here to describe this unprecedented process of change do not begin to describe the colossal problems that had to be solved. It took years before the first successes became visible and tangible for the population, and this development continues to this day.
The course of the young president’s first years in office is the source of the phenomenon that the political West simply cannot and is not willing to understand and which can be described in its own way as a fundamental trust in Putin. Putin provided wages, pensions, food, basic compliance with the law, stability and prosperity – the basis for modern Russia.
In terms of foreign policy, President Putin initially sought proximity to the West and pursued a policy aimed at making Russia an equal partner of the EU and developing friendly relations with the USA. After 9/11, Putin even allowed the USA to use Russian airfields.
Speech from Munich – Georgia – Maidan – Syria
In his famous speech on February 10, 2007 at the Munich Security Conference, President Putin criticized for the first time the monopolistic dominance of the USA and its almost unbridled use of force in international relations, as well as the unstoppable eastward expansion of NATO. This was a surprising turn of events for the West. It had to accept that Russia would no longer accept this development.
Georgia’s attack on its breakaway territories under Russian auspices in 2008 – organized and orchestrated by the United States – resulted in Russia being forced to reassess the structure and armament of its military in light of the threat situation. Under the pretext of reclaiming former Georgian territories, the actual aim of the aggression was to create the conditions for the admission of new countries into NATO – namely Georgia and Ukraine – and thus, above all, to weaken Russia.
The admission of Georgia and Ukraine was to be decided at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Surprisingly, Russia was also invited to the summit as a guest – proof of how weak the USA considered the Russian Federation to be at the time.
All these events forced Russia to devote great energy to rebuilding its military. This was only possible because the economic and political conditions for this had been created.
The Maidan in 2013/14 and an eight-year covert war by the West against the Russian-speaking Donbass confirmed Russia’s decisions made in 2008.
The non-compliance with the Minsk I and II agreements – initially welcomed by Russia, in particular in its reliance on Germany, as an effective instrument for settling the cruel internal Ukrainian disputes – ultimately represented the end of any trust Russia had in the political leaders of the West and in Western diplomacy as a whole. They did not want a peaceful solution.
Russia first demonstrated its new military strength in Syria in 2015. Its intervention resulted in the failure of the American plans to destroy Syria as part of the Wolfowitz Plan of 1992. Russia achieved the turning point in Syria with a skillful military approach using a very manageable military force.
The strategic capabilities of the Russian leadership
Clearly defined overall strategy is consistently implemented
President Putin sees the war in Ukraine as just one piece of the puzzle in a great chess game that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union and whose 64 squares stretch across the globe. He has repeatedly referred to this in his speeches. In my opinion, it is absurd that the West does not pay the attention to President Putin’s speeches that they deserve. Unlike many Western leaders, Putin is a prime example of strategic transparency. He implements exactly what he says in his speeches. This may come as a surprise to the West. It is also becoming increasingly clear that Western strategy is limited to being against Russia. This means that the West has no strategies whatsoever regarding its own interests. The economic and social collapse of Germany as a de facto colony of the USA is a prime example of this. See my article ” Germany is a naive pawn of the USA with no power to turn around “.
The fact that Russia is stronger today than at any time in its recent history is based on a rational, systematic and forward-looking long-term strategy, not only by Putin, but by the entire Russian leadership over the last 24 years.
The reasons why Russia not only survived the largest storm of sanctions ever imposed by the West, but is actually thriving, can be found precisely in this. The Russian leadership anticipated the West’s policies and made the necessary and, above all, correct political and economic decisions years in advance. Today, despite the storm of Western sanctions, Russia has sound economic and social foundations that allow it to respond quickly and efficiently to any new economic attacks.
The result is surprising in the West: Russia is one of the few countries without net debt. This year it has achieved economic growth of over 5%. In contrast, the USA and the EU are in a de facto recession and are bankrupt by any standard of balance sheet analysis, which is becoming increasingly evident as the manipulation of economic figures becomes less and less effective at concealing reality.
The political West’s view of President Putin as a dictator who does and controls everything himself cannot be further from the truth. Putin has assembled a team around him, which consists largely of top people who understand their tasks and can carry them out competently. In recent months, this has included an uncompromising fight against corruption throughout the country, which has not even stopped at ministers and is taking place very publicly. The consistency shown is extraordinary and shows that Russia is preparing for a long conflict, even if not all the swamps have been drained yet.
In addition to the economic strengthening during this crisis and the clear military victory on the front, Russia managed to become, alongside China, the foreign policy and diplomatic heavyweight of the Global South. Russia’s partnership with China is reflected in an increasingly effective coordination of their decisions. These two giants are forging economic and security policy organizations with the BRICS and SCO organizations, which will bid farewell to the hegemonic system of the West and form a multipolar community of states in this world.
Kursk and further western escalation
The Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region caught Russia unprepared. The reaction of the Russian leadership and the population made it clear almost from the start that even this action, which would have been impossible without Western coordination and material support, would not be able to deter Russia from its path. It will take weeks for the Ukrainian troops to be expelled, but ultimately the invasion of Kursk will only hasten the end of today’s political Ukraine. The action has already failed and will probably go down in history as the last stand of a loser.
This is also reflected in the fact that Kiev is constantly trying to explain the purpose of this military suicide mission. If the declared aim was to obtain a bargaining chip for negotiations by occupying the Kursk nuclear power plant, for example, this goal was not achieved. The explanations were then changed to say that the aim was to force the Russians to withdraw their units from the Donbass to Kursk in order to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian troops. This did not happen either, and the Russian troops are even accelerating their actions.
The aim of instilling fear and terror in the Russian population was also not achieved. The fact that Russian territory was attacked for the first time since 1941 had the opposite effect on the Russian population. Estimates show that up to 30,000 Ukrainians and Western mercenaries invaded Kursk and that over 12,000 of them have already died. It can be assumed that the remaining troops will be wiped out over the next weeks and months. These forces are now missing from the front in Donbass; they were the best that could still be assembled.
I expect the Americans to escalate the conflict further. The Americans will probably supply the JASSMs , which can be fired from the F16. This weapon will – depending on the design – theoretically be capable of reaching even Moscow; theoretically, because in order to reach Moscow it would be necessary to bring an F-16 to the east of Ukraine, which is not impossible due to the dense Russian air defenses, but would be associated with considerable difficulties – and impossible without Western logistical support.
Such long-range weapons will go down in history as the next new wonder weapon, which is supposed to change the course of war, but – like all the others – will have no influence on the course of the war. We already explained this 18 months ago in our article ” Wonder weapons, weapon systems and chatter ” and we were right.
Will President Putin allow himself to be provoked by these provocations, which will ultimately be militarily ineffective and will have no influence on the final outcome?
Real strategists have infinite patience
President Putin’s patience is often the subject of contemplation – by both pro-Western and pro-Russian exponents. One commentator on our article ” Kursk: Invasion, beginning of war, diversion, pawn? ” quoted the proverb “Beware the fury of a patient man.”, which comes from John Dryden.
In my opinion, however, to describe the attitude of President Putin and his team as patient is an oversimplification and does not get to the heart of the Russian strategy. A chess player without patience inevitably loses. A gifted chess player creates the conditions for defeating his opponent by patiently implementing a strategy once he has recognized it as correct.
Putin’s chessboard extends as far as Russian interests extend. He will not change his strategy, which has proven successful over the last 24 years, by reacting emotionally to the events in Kursk or the missile strikes in Russia, which were quite painful for the population affected. Anyone who thinks that Russia can be provoked in this way is wrong in my opinion and has – once again – failed to understand Russia’s strategy and how it is being implemented. The fact that the entire West is following this line of provocation and believes in it is by no means an argument for its success, but rather shows that the West has no strategy at all. The lack of a strategy is easy to prove: in our article ” The consequences of the intercepted German air force conversation mean war ” we described a possible target for Russia in response to the use of Taurus . Let’s assume that Russia were to launch such a strike, which would be easy to achieve. What would Germany’s reaction be? – Outcry, nothing more. NATO in Europe as a whole would have no tools to respond seriously to this. In a conventional conflict, NATO would have no chance. That is not an assertion, but a fact. NATO has suffered a bloody nose in Ukraine over the past two and a half years, at the expense of the Ukrainians. NATO forces themselves have no serious forces in Europe, neither in terms of size nor quality. The only serious army in NATO is Turkey, and it will certainly not march against Russia. In 1941, Germany invaded the Soviet Union with an army of almost four million men, which was militarily poorly prepared at the time. The result is well known. What would happen if NATO invaded Russia with a few hundred thousand soldiers from various NATO member states, a Russia that has never been so strong and battle-hardened militarily? A downright ridiculous thought.
Thoughts on Russia’s next steps
principle
Any reaction by Russia must be understood in the context of the overall situation on the global chessboard. With regard to Ukraine, President Putin’s goals are known in principle and have been clearly communicated again and again since February 2022: denazification, demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine (NATO) and the retention of Crimea (Istanbul 2022) as well as the retention of the Lugansk, Donek, Saparoshiya and Kherson regions (Istanbul+) under Russia.
Since President Putin is aware of the US long-term strategy (dismemberment of Russia) and the broken agreements (1991 and Minsk I + II), Russia will not be willing to agree to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. Negotiations will take place at the earliest when there are no more Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory; this includes the four regions mentioned above that are now part of Russia.
These goals are currently within Russia’s grasp. The situation in Kursk, or rather the destruction of the Ukrainian troops, has accelerated in recent days and it can be assumed that this suicide mission by the West will soon be history. If one follows developments on the Donbass front, it is clear that the Russian advance is accelerating daily and it is only a matter of time before the Russian armed forces are on the Dnieper. The Ukrainian armed forces are practically disintegrating. There is a lack of soldiers and material.
diplomacy
Trump’s nominee for Vice President, Senator Vance, explains the peace proposal Trump would likely put forward: (1) A demarcation line along which the existing front line would run and be fortified so that the Russians could not attack again; (2) Guarantee of Ukraine’s neutrality towards Russia, i.e. no membership in NATO or other allied institutions. (3) The Germans and other European countries must finance the reconstruction of Western Ukraine.
By November, the Russians will probably be on the Dnieper and will have achieved militarily what Vance and Trump intend territorially – or more.
(President) Zelensky will be furious if this plan is implemented. He is exercising his power without any legal basis because his term of office expired in May and he did not stand for re-election. How could he? He no longer has any support among the people and the war is lost. He must fear not only for his power but also for his life. Anyone who believes that he will use his stolen billions to lead a comfortable life in exile – in Miami, for example – does not know Americans. The American plan in Ukraine has failed, so the USA no longer needs this man in Kiev and Zelensky, who is heavily addicted to cocaine, knows too much. He will probably suffer the same fate as Ngo Dinh Diem, who was executed – probably on orders from the USA – on November 2, 1963. Problem solved.
Europe, especially Germany, will be furious. Germany has ruined itself as a loyal vassal for US interests in Ukraine, economically and socially, and has contributed to the destruction of Ukraine with its military and financial support. If Trump becomes president, he will abandon Germany and leave the bill for reconstruction on the table in Berlin.
However, the peace plan is not only a disaster for Zelensky and Europe, but also for the deep state in the USA. Trump recognizes that the USA cannot afford a war against Russia financially and he would accept another foreign policy and military defeat. The deep state does not. I explained why in my article ” US elections decide on war or peace “. The above-mentioned plan to dismember Russia would be set back by decades or made impossible entirely by a Trump-style peace. The fact that the deep state is trying everything to prevent a Trump election was already evident in this week’s debate: the two ABC “journalists” who were supposed to conduct this debate neutrally actually fought for Kamala Harris, who is closely allied with the head of ABC.
It is not clear who will win this election, but I assume that Donald Trump’s life is in danger.
American pressure on BRICS countries
It is evident that the US is putting massive pressure on BRCS countries – especially Brazil and India – to get Russia to negotiate. These countries, which do business with both the Global South and the Collective West, are trying to pass this pressure on to Russia.
China is also being put under pressure, with the result that payment transactions between Russia and China are currently being affected due to the pressure on Chinese banks . China’s ties with Russia may be characterized by strong economic cooperation, but strategically – especially for the Chinese – they are military. China’s interest in the Russians defeating NATO in Ukraine is vital for the Middle Kingdom’s survival. China, as the USA’s declared main enemy in its fight to maintain its hegemony, will only be able to withstand this pressure as long as Russia is strong at its side. China’s chance of winning this fight – which will be fought over the next generations – depends militarily on Russia. China may have a very large army that is being consistently expanded and has an impressive high-tech arsenal, but China has no experience of war – in contrast to Russia. Andrei Martyanov argues convincingly that Russia is now the only armed force in the world that has mastered “combined warfare”. an indispensable prerequisite for winning a real military conflict. Real means against a serious enemy. That is precisely the reason why Ukraine – even with the active support of NATO – has no chance against Russia.
Russia certainly takes these calls from its BRICS partners at the diplomatic level seriously, but will under no circumstances deviate from its strategy on the matter.
Russia’s reactions to the Western escalation
The attack on the Kursk region has already had consequences, such as the destruction of the NATO-run training center in Poltava in early September. In this center, Ukrainian troops were trained by NATO officers for drone and missile attacks on Russia. According to my sources, around 720 soldiers were killed in this attack, including a large number of NATO instructors from Sweden, Germany, France and Poland. Not mercenaries, but NATO officers.
In Poltava, personnel were trained on a large scale to operate drones and for electronic reconnaissance. Sweden intended to sell two SAAB 340 AEW Erieye aircraft, a smaller version of the American AWACS aircraft.
Sweden also trained personnel for this purpose in Poltava. The completely unexpected resignation of the Swedish Foreign Minister on the morning after the Russian attack should not surprise anyone.
One indication that this information is true is the flight movements of some of the huge S Lookheed Martin K 130 aircraft, which in the Medvac version can transport 74 injured people. A large number of Medvac flights were carried out by Poland, Germany and Romania. This makes the statement that many NATO personnel were injured very credible.
President Putin speaks on September 12 about the use of long-range weapons against Russia
President Putin does not see the permission of the USA and Great Britain to use western long-range weapons against Russia as permission, but as a clear and direct entry of NATO countries into a war against Russia. He justifies this view by saying that these attacks cannot be carried out by Ukraine without NATO support. On the one hand, Ukraine does not have any satellite reconnaissance of its own, and on the other hand it does not have the personnel to provide technical support for the weapons systems.
President Putin’s conclusion in full:
If this decision is made, it will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct involvement, and this, of course, significantly changes the essence, the nature of the conflict.
It means that NATO countries, the United States and European countries are at war with Russia. And if that is the case, then given the changed nature of that conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will arise for us.http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75092
These statements by President Putin are once again a brilliant move. In doing so, he automatically creates a legal basis for an attack on any NATO member in the event that these long-range weapons are used. He doesn’t have to – he can – at any time.
Conclusion
President Putin is well aware of the United States’ long-term strategy toward Russia: the dismemberment of Russia.
During the first 22 years of his term in office, Putin has tried to solve this problem diplomatically, with Russia refraining from using armed force until February 2022. On the one hand, Putin’s long exhaustion of diplomatic means is being ignored by the West or interpreted as weakness. On the other hand, this angelic patience is sometimes criticized within his own ranks.
In the period up to 2022, Russia flourished thanks to an unprecedented economic and social policy, so that only Germany’s post-war boom after the Second World War can be used as a parallel, although this comparison is flawed: Germany was supported with huge resources, especially by the USA, to make its success possible. Russia did not have this privilege, but managed it on its own, which makes Russia’s boom since 2000 all the more impressive.
Putin’s strategy is a holistic, global game of chess, which is balanced down to the last detail and rests on such a stable foundation that even the largest storm of sanctions ever initiated by the West not only failed to harm the Russian economy, but led to an economic upturn.
Russia has no military opponents today: the West has no strategy – neither a geopolitical nor a military one – but uses propaganda as its main weapon and embarrasses itself on the battlefield so that one would have laugh lines if gloating were appropriate – it is not. Countless people die as a result of these cynical games that a few sociopaths are playing, and the media in the West are either bought or so stupid that it makes you stop laughing.
Russia will end this war and dictate the terms. It is astonishing that, according to the statements of Vice President candidate Vance, a possible President Trump would come very close to the Kremlin’s terms. However, it is up in the air whether Trump will live to see the election, as the deep state will do everything it can to keep the ball of war in play; that can only be achieved without Trump.
I assume that the attacks on Russia with drones and missiles – including long-range missiles – will continue and be intensified. Like the adventure in Kursk, these actions will have no impact on the overall military situation. The situation on the main front is becoming more and more of a catastrophe for Ukraine: the Russians are gaining ground rapidly and the Ukrainians are suffering ever greater losses as the forcibly recruited soldiers are increasingly deserting. Even CNN reported this, another indication of the catastrophic situation in which Ukraine finds itself.
While I do not rule out an attack on a NATO base outside Ukraine by Russia – one should never do that – I consider it unlikely at the moment. However, if long-range attacks on Russia are staged from Poland or Romania, they would also be legally justified.
The Russians are known for reacting unconventionally, and thus American bases in the Middle East are ideal targets that the Russians could attack – this time through their proxies.
Let us hope that there is still some sanity left in the Western decision-making centres so that the worst does not happen.
Econophysics2020 