Map courtesy of The Vineyard of the Saker http://thesaker.is/
Reproduced above is the Saker’s summary of the Ukraine theater as seen from the Russian side as of 11 PM local, March 3, 2022.
It is notable that for all the PsyOp news coverage in Western media since Russia invaded, we never see a theater map.
I have no idea how much of The Sakr’s map is correct but some fixed points on his map seem to correlate with a subset of the otherwise emotional news reports.
Also, by way of full disclosure, it’s worth noting how this blogger describes himself:
- Born in Switzerland to a Dutch father and Russian mother
- Raised by his mother
- Started in Swiss military and strategic intelligence
- Later worked at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research
- BA International Relations, American University and MA Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University
The Day 9 map shows the development of an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbass. Russian units appear to moving at the speed of ~10 miles per day. On this front, Russian forces have branched out along two main axes, one northwest along the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast along the coast and inland towards the Donbass region. Assuming the arrows represent those major lines of Russian advance, 10 miles per day translates to complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east within a week.
At that point, the combined Russian forces in the east can advance unimpeded to the Dnieper — splitting Ukraine in two with a Russian population in the east.
Ukrainian Order of Battle
- 101st Brigade for the Protection of the General Staff
- 10th Mountain Assault Brigade: deep in the Donbass Pocket defending positions around Popasna
- 93rd Mechanized Brigade: thought to be deep in the Donbass Pocket centered on the village of Krymske
- 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade: thought to be deep in the Donbass Pocket
- 1st Tank Brigade: currently encircled in Chernihiv and bypassed
- 53rd Mechanized Brigade
- 24th Mechanized Brigade: may be in the Donbass Pocket
- 302nd Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment
- 14th Mechanized Brigade: may be in the Donbass Pocket
7 mobile brigades of which ~4 are thought to be in the Donbass region. Encirclement of these units would crush Ukrainian resistance.
So what is really happening?
News sources in the US have no clue.
As Pontius Pilate famously asked: “What is truth?”
The first casualty of war.
Econophysics2020 