Phase 2: The Donbass Cauldron and South Front

Probably the most current metric for how Russia is doing is the Ruble. So far, it is holding its own even as Biden sanctions are destroying the EU economy and crippling the US.

We’ll summarize what we know about principal military attack vectors, share Russian/DPR perspective, and end with Scott Ritter’s analysis.

We’re not cheerleaders. But with Western media nothing more than Biden Regime “psyops”, it’s always helpful to see how the other side sees things, plus a little reality check.

Now to the front which has shifted north and east as the Mariupol ends.

Karkiv

On the right flank of the Russian position is the 138th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army (6th CAA). The 138th employs MT-LBV armored personnel carriers and T-72B3 tanks. According to the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat article, two battle groups of approximately 800 men each from the brigade had been sent to participate in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Here are some T-72s reportedly in the vicinity ot Kharkiv.

Russia completed its withdrawal from Sumy Oblast and additional forces from the 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) arrived on the Izium axis. 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle DIvision’s (2nd GMRD) 1st Guards Tank Regiment conducted a possible probe south of Izium near Sulyhivka. 1st Guards Tank Army’s remaining combat power may not be enough to achieve a breakthrough without further reinforcements. 35th CAA likely begun to arrive in this sector, with Ukraine’s General Staff noting the arrival of the 38th Seperate Motorized Rifle Brigade.

This appears to be a flank security position for the larger body of troops aimed at IZyum.

Izyum

The 1st Guards Tank Army is the Russian hammer.

Russian forces will continue reinforcing the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and attempting to advance to and through Slovyansk to encircle Ukrainian forces.

Here we see the bulk of the 1st Guards Tank Army stretched along the vital M-03 road.

More broadly, Russia continued its redeployment of VDV and Eastern Military District forces from Belarus to the Donbas and Kharkiv Oblast. Additional 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) elements and possibly part of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division arrived at Valuyki and Kup’yans’k. The 35th CAA’s remaining combat capable units will arrive over the next five days, possibly achieving allowing Russia overall to reach a correlation of forces favorable enough to mount an offensive south of Izium. 5th CAA elements have been identified in the Sievierodonetsk area. Kherson has been slightly reinforced by an unidentified naval infantry unit, possibly indicating Russia intends to try to hold it.

But back to the M-03: the primary rail hubs being used to reinforce the Izium axis are Valuyki and Kup’yans’k.

Imperial (black and yellow and white) and St. Andrew (Russian Marines) flags – units heading east

Abrams tank captured by DPR forces on the Eastern front.

As reported by Tass:

“During the day, high-precision land-based missiles hit a battalion command center, three company strongholds, two company tactical groups of the 24th Ukrainian mechanized brigade and a territorial defense brigade, and two place of the deployment of personnel, weapons and military hardware near the settlements of Popasnaya, Novozvanovka, and Zolotoye in the Donetsk region,” he said, adding that up to 300 Ukrainian militants were killed and more than 50 armored combat vehicles were destroyed.

Mariupol and the Russian/DPR Point of View

Finally, Scott Ritter on the Battle of Donbass – the “Double Envelopment”

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