The Vise Tightens as Russia Breaks Through

The pace is picking up in the East.

In the last 24 hours, the Russian Federation forces took two towns threatening the AFU position in and south Severodnetsk:

  • Voronove to the south-east (circled on the right above)
  • Bilohorivka (circled on the left above in the AFU’s rear)

The AFU supply line is the blue-highlighted road ~3000 meters south of the town — well within artillery and rocket range.

Presently, the AFU has 3-5 days of supplies. Cut the supply line and those inventories quickly run out.

Like Guderian through the Ardennes in the 1940 Battle of France, the Russians 2nd Guards Tank Army successfully cleared the woods to the northwest of Bilohivka, and successfully forced a crossing of the Siversky Donetz River and broke through the AFU defenses.

From here on is open country.

Similarly, the successful assault on Voronove further east leaves AFU forces in rifle pits and trenches north of the airport just west of town – out in the open.

To put this action in perspective, here are the battle lines — including the vise applied to the left flank of the AFU line:

Viewed at a high level, 5th Guards Combined Army is punching through from the East. The AFU’s 24th Mechanized has been regrouping around Bakhmut when it was hit with a missile attack.

Meanwhile, the 2nd Guards Tank Army is dropping down behind Severodonetsk from the north, and 1st Guards Tank Army is poised to drive into the AFU rear west of 2nd Guards while covering its right flank.

As AFU units attempt to reform, they are taking missile strikes near Pyatikhatka, Artsyz, and Krasnopolie.

The problem AFU faces is their units have insufficient fuel to maneuver, and cannot easily disengage from the Russian Federation forces facing them.

On the Donesk front, the AFU is dug into fortified positions. If they try to move, they get hit. And if they move, they can’t move quickly enough.

Their air force is at risk – 2 Su-24’s were destroyed over the past 24 hours.

The cadence should begin to accelerate over the next 2 weeks – slowly, at first, and then ever faster.

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