It’s a crazy world—we’re getting bombarded with information and disinformation at an incredible pace. Nowhere is this more true than with regard to the war on Russia. The latest example of disinformation about Ukraine is the so-called Ukrainian “counter-offensive” toward Kherson. In reality, most knowledgeable military commentators regard this as a failed attempt at a tactical advance—failed, because not only have the Ukrainians failed to make any sustainable advance, but in the process of being defeated they have suffered horrendous losses of their best trained and armed forces. Yesterday, beyond the Russian official claims and stats regarding Ukrainian KIAs, I heard Scott Ritter state that hospitals in the nearby city of Nikolaev are overflowing with many thousands of wounded Ukrainian soldiers. In effect, as Ritter and others have maintained, this was the cost of what was in effect a PR offensive—a desperate attempt to gin up more support in the West by presenting some very limited effort as proof that Ukraine is not defeated.
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Today The Saker has a worthwhile article that addresses this whole disinformation campaign—not, however, from a media standpoint but from the hard realities of warfare. It’s a detailed presentation, so I’ll break it down into its sections and urge readers to follow the link.
The article is broken down, substantively, into six topics.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive tactical attack in the south:
First the Ukrainian losses are presented, from Russian official sources. Then:
But this does not tell the full story. 1’700 KIAs might not sound like much, but in reality this is a huge deal for the following reasons:
These 1’700 soldiers were supported by armor, artillery and even some aviation and the USA/UK had huge hopes that this much announced “counter-offensive” would yield some good PR. The Brandon administration is absolutely desperate to show at least something vaguely successful, yet this so-called “counter-offensive” resulted in only a few tactical attacks which brought no tangible results whatsoever.
The size of this force shows that this operation was mostly about PR. The Ukrainians never had a chance, not on the tactical level and, even less so, to develop tactical attack into an operational counter-offensive. Considering that it took them months to prepare this rather modest operation, this shows how much the Ukrainian armed forces have been degraded over the past months.
Even worse for the Nazis and their US patrons is the fact that now the entire southern front just lost a lot of its best soldiers and hardware. Considering that the Russians are reinforcing their southern forces (see below), this is an especially dangerous development for the regime in Kiev.
What the author is suggesting is that this ill-advised PR effort has opened up the Black Sea coast between Kherson and the Romanian border, making Russian advances much easier when they come.
Western weapon deliveries to the Ukraine
Here the author focuses on planned deliveries of ex-Soviet aircraft to replace the destroyed Ukrainian airforce—but the same considerations apply to other weapons systems. These considerations explain why Western weapons cannot change the inevitable full defeat of Ukraine, in detail.
… Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective:
They need to be fully integrated into a combined arms operation.
They need to be operated by a highly trained crews.
They need to be used in sufficient numbers to achieve any meaningful effect, [requiring massive infrastructure, much of it already destroyed].
They need to be maintained/supported by a complex and advanced supply chain and qualified specialists.
Since none of that can happen, …
In reality, it takes MANY YEARS to form a capable military pilot, and there is no substitute for this. …
Rumors of a major Russian offensive
These rumors remain rumors, but the assembled Russian forces—up to two army corps—are stationed to be used in two directions: either up north toward Dnipropetrovsk, or west toward Odessa. Or both. The Ukrainian losses in this failed attempt at a counteroffensive will only enable whatever Russia decides on next.
Will Russia declare a full mobilization?
The short answer is no. Furthermore, this question is based on a flawed assumption: that Russia’s so-called “slow progress” is due to lack of manpower (about the “slow progress” see here). That assumption, in turn, is based on two major mistakes: the first it conflates overall manpower with manpower available at any specific moment in time on a specific sector of the line of contact. What matters is not overall numerical superiority, but local superiority, superiority on your main axes of attack/defense. …
Second, the Russians have been fighting this entire SMO with less than 10% of the Russian military and with a 3:1 advantage for the Nazi forces almost everywhere. You could say that the Ukrainians are fighting a positional war while the Russians are fighting a mobile war, counting on their qualitative superiority (in most fields, with a few exceptions – such as counter-battery radars and squad level need for commercial quad-copters similar to the famous DJI Mavic series, see below – and these limited disadvantages are now being quickly addressed).
Is it possible that Russia might buy some Iranian UAV?
I would say that it is not very likely, but quite possible. Why? First, Russia and Iran are (informal but strong) allies and the Iranians would probably love to test their gear in real, modern, warfare conditions (Syria, Iraq or Yemen do not qualify). Second, the Iranians have superb UAVs, not necessarily better than Russian ones (it really depends on the mission and what the rest of the forces are doing), but very good ones indeed. Since Russia is flush with cash thanks to the western sanctions, Russia could do worse than purchase an X number of Iranian UAV and use them (or even give them to the LDNR). Again, I don’t think that this will happen because … the more advanced a UAV is, the more it needs to be able to “talk” to a lot of highly specialized networks and equipment, most of which are secret to begin with.
Conclusion:
Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, … Now this entire narrative is tanking …
…
… All the recent developments further show that Russia will methodically achieve all of her objectives in the coming months (though the denazification of Europe will, of course, take longer, not to mention the need to denazify the USA itself).
Now, in case you’re wondering whether this is just pro-Russian happy talk, consider this article, which hasn’t received a lot of attention in the MSM, even though it was carried by Reuters:
Striking as that title is, check this assessment out:
“The bulk of the Russian land forces may be tied down in Ukraine at the moment but, even so, we should not underestimate the Russian land forces’ potential to open a second theatre of war,” General Eberhard Zorn, the highest-ranking soldier of the Bundeswehr, told Reuters in an interview.
Beyond the army, Russia also has a navy and air force at its disposal, he added.
“Most of the Russian navy has not yet been deployed in the war on Ukraine, and the Russian air force still has significant potential as well …
“As concerns its military, Russia is very well capable of expanding the conflict regionally,” the general said. …
Referring to the military situation in Ukraine, Zorn said the dynamic of Russia’s attack had slowed down but Russia was still pressing steadily ahead.
….
He also suggested that Russia was not about to run out of ammunition any time soon.
And there’s more. Count on it—this guy knows what the real situation is.
Meanwhile, here’s what the German population—which is scrambling for firewood for the winter, with major industries shutting down—is hearing from their government:
German FM: I will put Ukraine first “no matter what my German voters think” or how hard their life gets. pic.twitter.com/GwAqIZ2jL7
— Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil (@ivan_8848) August 31, 2022
But just as interesting are the dynamics we’re seeing between Poland and Germany. The Russians must be chuckling over this development. Recall that I’ve repeatedly remarked upon the extraordinary patience that Putin and Lavrov have shown toward Poland, given how extreme some of the Polish rhetoric has been. The energy crunch could make for some interesting realignments:
🇵🇱🇩🇪Poland has decided to officially demand reparations from Germany for World War II.
This statement was made by the leader of the Polish ruling party Kaczynski. Poland will demand 6.2 trillion zlotys (about $1.3 trillion) from Germany as reparations, leader Kaczynski said. pic.twitter.com/UWz2QzHC2J
Recall also that Tom Luongo spoke of Russian policy being directed at breaking Germany. This next item isn’t from Germany, per se, but it wouldn’t be happening without German support. At some point will the Poles realize they’re being set up to be an EU colony—which means, dominated by Germany? Zerohedge has the full article,
but the tweet below tells the story—just as the Euros are telling Russia, ‘We really, really hate you,’ so too they’re telling the Poles the same thing:
Verhofstadt is also very keen on voicing his opinion about Poland on social media. Let us note that despite the unprecedented support Poland provides to war refugees from Ukraine, it still has not received any new funds from the EU.
Now, the Belgian politician has appealed to not unfreeze the EU recovery funds as well.
Welcome to the start of the new political year, where Europe’s old political problems remain on the table…
Whatever vital role Poland is playing to help Ukraine, it will NOT get EU recovery funds unless it fully restores the rule of law ! 👇🏻 https://t.co/0cShHNDRZv
He is currently attending Campus Polska, a left-wing conference, where he appears together with Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski, the former Polish foreign minister. They will discuss “a Europe of shared healthcare standards, law mechanisms, security policies, protection of civil rights, and energy.”
In other words, they’re discussing Poland’s surrender of its culture and history and national sovereignty. I’m willing to bet that Putin and Lavrov will find a way to put out feelers.
Econophysics2020 
Reblogged this on Calculus of Decay .
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