Latest estimate: 1.5 percent — April 5, 2023
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.5 percent on April 5, down from 1.7 percent on April 3. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -8.5 percent to -7.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.44 percentage points to 0.29 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 10.
Comments:
- March ADP <150K and JOLTS slowest since May 2020
- ISM down 10 points to 40.3 — the second lowest since 2020 with new orders sub-45
- Factory orders rolled over and declining
Econophysics2020 