The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt

Chris Hamilton’s Econimica blog remains one of my favorites. In his latest posting, Chris’s punchline remains on-point and entertaining Some say these are the seeds of the second American revolution as a class of unelected, undemocratic central bankers enrich a tiny majority at the expense of the majority…but I just like making colorful charts. IContinue reading “The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt”

The Limits of Climate Change due to GHG Sensitivity

Stefani (2021): The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as a proxy for solar activity, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19thContinue reading “The Limits of Climate Change due to GHG Sensitivity”

Doug Casey on Robinhood

Doug Casey: https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-robinhood-hedge-funds-and-class-warfare/ International Man: We seem to be entering a new paradigm in the financial markets. Social media has allowed a large number of small investors to band together and move markets in ways that were previously inconceivable. What are your thoughts on this and what lies ahead? Doug Casey: To start with, mostContinue reading “Doug Casey on Robinhood”

GME Gamma Squeeze – the Movie

SpotGamma: https://spotgamma.com/gme-gamma-squeeze/?utm_source=ZeroHedge%20GME%20Squeeze&utm_medium=ZH%20Website&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge%20GME%20Squeeze In late January 2021, GameStop experienced a once-in-a-decade squeeze that has captivated the world’s attention. This was a premeditated and programmatic exercise, orchestrated by coordinated stock and option buying across the retail and professional community, that resulted in large institutional entities losing billions of dollars. These investment houses with significant short positions did not expect aContinue reading “GME Gamma Squeeze – the Movie”

mRNA Vaccine Safety

Remmel, A. (2021): COVID vaccines and safety: what the research says It is clear that coronavirus vaccines are safe and effective, but as more are rolled out, researchers are learning about the extent and nature of side effects. As people around the world receive COVID-19 vaccines, reports of temporary side effects such as headaches andContinue reading “mRNA Vaccine Safety”

Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High

What can possibly go wrong? Well, here’s JPM’s John Normand ,head of cross-asset strategy, (courtesy of ZeroHedge): https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/complacency-20-year-highs-jpm-models-warn-imminent-correction Current readings for individual indicators and the composite are summarized in charts 3 and 4. In Chart 3, four of the seven cross-asset measures have moved beyond the levels that have preceded previous corrections (short and long-term valuation, positioningContinue reading “Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High”

The Blackouts That Go With Going Green

With the Modern Solar Minimum upon us, better get used to colder winters over the next 3 decades. Solar Cycle 24 (December 2008 – December 2019) is recorded as the weakest in magnitude since 1957 (Hajra, 2021). That cycle is consistent with the so-called “hiatus” that ran through 2013. Here is how Cycle 24 fitsContinue reading “The Blackouts That Go With Going Green”

The New Normal: Higher VX Summer Prices and Excessive Contango in VX Futures

Evil Speculator: https://evilspeculator.com/the-new-old-normal/ Implied volatility has been dropping faster than an ACME anvil over the past two weeks, which stands in stark contrast to what I am seeing in the bonds market so the jury is still out whether or not we are looking at some bifurcation here (strange things happen sometimes) or if riskContinue reading “The New Normal: Higher VX Summer Prices and Excessive Contango in VX Futures”

Solar Minimum, Weakened Jet Stream, and Extended Cold Ahead

7-day NOAA GFS forecast (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021021612&fh=6 With a weakening solar cycle, no surprise we are seeing new cold records being set. And, this is what’s ahead – a slight warming trend late-decade to be followed by a return to cold temperatures.

Arbitrage

Zero Hedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/microstrategy-selling-600-million-bonds-acquire-additional-bitcoins MicroStrategy Is Selling $600 Million In Bonds To “Acquire Additional Bitcoins” With Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 for the first time this morning, Business intelligence and mobile software firm MicroStrategy has announced it intends to sell bonds and use the net proceeds to “acquire additional bitcoins.” In the last few weeks, MicroStrategy has been addingContinue reading “Arbitrage”