What Risk?

Chris Hamilton (Econimica.com) is known for his insightful statistical analysis of the economy. And, last week, Chris did a great job poking through the CoV data in response to Oregon’s lockdown order.

But, first, the order.

Last week State Potentate Kate Brown issued the following statement:  “As we near 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in Oregon, and with hospitals and health care workers stretched to their limits, there is no doubt that COVID-19 continues to pose a public health threa. These are the darkest days in the pandemic”.

“Darkest days.” OK, that’s a pretty dramatic statement.

Now for Chris and Oregon public health data.

The graph on the top shows current year death rate following the long-term trend. Certainly the “darkest days” are not obvious in that plot.

OK, so maybe it’s the hospitalization rate – you know the usual “stretched to their limit” comment.

Personally, I don’t know what “stretched to the limit” means.

Oregon’s Department of Health and Human Services (updated last 12/15, link HHS) reports Oregon is among the states with a below average percentage of Covid patients in the hospitals (10.6% of beds occupied by Covid patients), among normal total hospital utilization (75% of available beds are filled), and among slightly elevated ICU utilization (about 75% of ICU beds are occupied).

Anyway, here’s Chris: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/12/response-to-coronavirus-in-oregon-has.html

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