Questioning the Lockdowns

Back in September, Donalid Luskin (CIO, TrendMacro) penned an opinion piece in the WSJ regarding uncontrolled experiments of government lockdowns ( The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory,Continue reading “Questioning the Lockdowns”

The Mathematics Against Lockdowns

In a bioRxiv preprint first posted October 21, 2020 (and later published in Molecular Biology and Evolution), Dellacour et al. (2020) report their studies of the spatial density of available SARS-CoV-2 genomes mapped in the Belgium epidemic. Their phylodynamic analysis demonstrates real-time dispersion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Among other things, their spatially-explicit phylogeographic analyses highlight thatContinue reading “The Mathematics Against Lockdowns”

What Risk?

Chris Hamilton ( is known for his insightful statistical analysis of the economy. And, last week, Chris did a great job poking through the CoV data in response to Oregon’s lockdown order. But, first, the order. Last week State Potentate Kate Brown issued the following statement:  “As we near 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in Oregon,Continue reading “What Risk?”

The Myth of Asymptomatic Spread

Here’s “The Science”: “The screening of the 9,865,404 participants without a history of COVID-19 found no newly confirmed COVID-19 cases, and identified 300 asymptomatic positive cases with a detection rate of 0.303 (95% CI 0.270–0.339)/10,000. The median age-stratified Ct-values of the asymptomatic cases were shown in Supplementary Table 1. Of the 300 asymptomatic positive cases,Continue reading “The Myth of Asymptomatic Spread”