Hot Money, Unraveling Economy

On St. Patrick’s Day, Charles Hugh Smith succinctly summarized the melt-up of the US economy (https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar21/dead-money3-21.html) In the era of widespread prosperity in the 1960s and 1970s, the velocity of money ratio remained in a band between 1.7 and 1.8, moving up toward 2 in the inflationary late 70s as it made sense to tradeContinue reading “Hot Money, Unraveling Economy”

ERCOT Margin Call

ERCOT is a “just-in-time” energy market without a capacity market and missing the ability to “call” adjacent systems or ready-to-go capacity to cover supply shortages. And so, – surprise, surprise – market clearing prices can get rather spikey when confronted by high demand and limited capacity. As reported by Zero Hedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/texas-grid-operator-warns-defaults-credit-crisis-develops The Texas energyContinue reading “ERCOT Margin Call”

The Blackouts That Go With Going Green

With the Modern Solar Minimum upon us, better get used to colder winters over the next 3 decades. Solar Cycle 24 (December 2008 – December 2019) is recorded as the weakest in magnitude since 1957 (Hajra, 2021). That cycle is consistent with the so-called “hiatus” that ran through 2013. Here is how Cycle 24 fitsContinue reading “The Blackouts That Go With Going Green”

Car Wreck

Jill Mislinski: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/04/vehicle-sales-per-capita-as-of-december-2020 The latest data point is the December count published by the BEA in their monthly Auto and Truck Seasonal Adjustment report, which shows a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.3 million units, which is a 4.0% decrease from the previous month’s figure from the BEA. The first chart shows the series since 2007, which illustratesContinue reading “Car Wreck”

Canary in the Mine: Red Ponzi Corn Imports

Per Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge: On the same day that China published a much stronger than expected (if largely laughable as we first noted and Michael Pettis subsequently confirmed) GDP print, making China the only major economy to grow in the “year of covid”, China customs data showed that grains imports soared to record highs in 2020 afterContinue reading “Canary in the Mine: Red Ponzi Corn Imports”

Spiking LNG Prices as Grand Solar Minimum Weather Patterns Appear

This is the first winter since the onset of the Grand Solar Minimum. And the impacts are sharp and immediate. LNG prices hit new records as temperature in Asia and Europe drop precipitousely amist tight supples. The historic Arctic blast is set to continue across Asia, with Beijing recording -19.6C on Thursday morning–the city’s lowest temperatureContinue reading “Spiking LNG Prices as Grand Solar Minimum Weather Patterns Appear”

Supply Chain Disruption

As Tyler observes, ISM falsely shows an uptick when, in fact, delivery time extension is more indicative of a supply chain disruption. Recall US industrial production remains stalled 5.6 percentage points below the long-run average. Nothing like this ever happened before. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ism-manufacturing-unexpectedly-soars-supplier-delivery-times-spike

“A Personal Financial Disaster”

Quite a year: Socialist governments have slaughtered small businesses by the thousands, with more than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits have been filed since the COVID pandemic first started. A brutal, government-mandated economic depression. A Federal government carrying over $27 trillion in debt. A OnePoll survey reports 55% of Americans consider 2020 aContinue reading ““A Personal Financial Disaster””

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Maybe Chinese exporters are overstating their exports, in general and to the United States. Overstating exports is a classic way of getting capital into a country with capital controls. Or, maybe US tariffs have created a strong incentive for firms importing into the United States to go to some lengths to understate their imports from China. Thus, U.S.Continue reading “Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”