Category Archives: Market Risk

The Market Clearing Price for a National Suicide Pact

Doomberg on the EU’s Carbon Credits: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-banana-worth-squeezing?r=9ozk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email “To me, left unchecked, the price of carbon goes to infinity.” – Lawson Steele On Friday, October 24, 2008, Volkswagen’s (VW) stock closed at EUR 210 per share, down 50% over the prior two weeks. Like many manufacturing companies, VW was reeling from the global financial crisis. BecauseContinue reading “The Market Clearing Price for a National Suicide Pact”

“Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-500-futures-had-bad-week-worse-lies-ahead S&P 500 Futures Had a Bad Week, Worse Lies Ahead By Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst S&P 500 futures have a distinctly bearish tone after a week of whiplash trading, which began with the post-Thanksgiving Day meltdown. Though it hasn’t been a one-way street lower, intraday bounces for the contract have been fadingContinue reading ““Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!””

House of Pain

Tim Knight: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/11/burning-down-the-house-2.html Burning Down the House One of today’s train wrecks is Zillow (symbol Z) which I only found out recently decided that no one knew more about real estate data than they did, so they would become the world’s biggest house-flippers. Well, that’s not working out so great. It would be like takingContinue reading “House of Pain”

Black Monday: October 19, 1987

Nothing was ever the same after that day. From here, the Fed beginning a 34 year long suppression of interest rates at a level never seen before. Global Macro Monitor tells the tale: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/18/black-monday-1987-inside-the-u-s-treasury-2/ The following exchange took place between President Reagan and reporters after the market close on Black Monday, October 19, 1987.  LeavingContinue reading “Black Monday: October 19, 1987”

Bonds Away!

The US bond market may be closed, but it was fully open in China, and locals took advantage of this fact to do one thing: sell. In the aftermath of our viral post “”Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play“, China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball onContinue reading “Bonds Away!”

“We got Condition Red and we’re definitely expecting rain.”

Excess liquidity is the ratio of a monetary aggregate to nominal GDP. It is often referred to as the “Marshallian K”, which is equivalent to the inverse of the “velocity of money.” The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip inContinue reading ““We got Condition Red and we’re definitely expecting rain.””

If it’s somethin’ weird an’ it don’t look good

If there’s somethin’ strange in your neighborhoodWho ya gonna call?(Ghostbusters!)If it’s somethin’ weird an’ it don’t look goodWho ya gonna call?(Ghostbusters!) With the “Federales” talking up more lockdowns, their Ministry of Truth expanding and formalizing their diktats to their all-too-enthusiastic oligarchical cronies, and the casino face-planting while inflation steps up, it makes you wonder: howContinue reading “If it’s somethin’ weird an’ it don’t look good”

Mike Wilson: “If being a bear is wrong, I don’t want to be right.”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mike-wilson-re-emerges-wall-streets-biggest-bear-heres-why-he-expects-20-drop-stocks Mike Wilson Re-Emerges As Wall Street’s Biggest Bear: Here’s Why He Expects A 20% Drop In Stocks BY TYLER DURDENMONDAY, JUL 12, 2021 – 02:40 PM Back in the summer of 2018, when stocks were surging at least until the fourth quarter when the Fed made the policy error ofContinue reading “Mike Wilson: “If being a bear is wrong, I don’t want to be right.””