Doomberg on the EU’s Carbon Credits: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-banana-worth-squeezing?r=9ozk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email “To me, left unchecked, the price of carbon goes to infinity.” – Lawson Steele On Friday, October 24, 2008, Volkswagen’s (VW) stock closed at EUR 210 per share, down 50% over the prior two weeks. Like many manufacturing companies, VW was reeling from the global financial crisis. BecauseContinue reading “The Market Clearing Price for a National Suicide Pact”
Category Archives: Economics
Supply Chain Systemic Risk
James Rickards explains the obvious: https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-supply-chain-collapse/ The Great Supply Chain Collapse What’s at the root of the supply chain breakdown? That’s a critical question but the answer is almost irrelevant. The supply chain is a complex dynamic system of immense scale. It is of a complexity comparable to the climate as a system. This meansContinue reading “Supply Chain Systemic Risk”
Judgment Day for Evergrande
Sarah Connor (Terminator 2): “The Survivors of the nuclear holocaust called the war Judgement Day. They lived only to face a new nightmare: the way against the machines.” ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evegrande-default-inevitable-sp-warns-chinese-developer-misses-dollar-bond-payments Evergrande Default Is “Inevitable” – S&P Warns As Chinese Developer Misses Dollar Bond Payments Having sold its Gulfstream Jets, dumped assets (at fire-sale prices), and seenContinue reading “Judgment Day for Evergrande”
BTC – the Biden Trade
ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-mulls-cutting-russia-swift-ahead-putin-call-nuclear-option-response-ukraine With the United States cutting back its own oil production in the name of “climate”, and fueling double-digit inflation, why would we consider shooting ourselves in the foot over Ukraine? Well, maybe Hunter Biden knows – he’s pulled enough dough out of Ukraine’s oligarchs for himself with “10% for the Big Guy.” OneContinue reading “BTC – the Biden Trade”
“Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-500-futures-had-bad-week-worse-lies-ahead S&P 500 Futures Had a Bad Week, Worse Lies Ahead By Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst S&P 500 futures have a distinctly bearish tone after a week of whiplash trading, which began with the post-Thanksgiving Day meltdown. Though it hasn’t been a one-way street lower, intraday bounces for the contract have been fadingContinue reading ““Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!””
Less is More
Chris Hamilton of Econimica: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2021/11/housing-employment-inflation-and-2022.html Housing, Employment, Inflation, and 2022 Some times saying less can say more. Given that, I’m going to offer four variables relating to housing and hopefully let them and their relationships do the talking. 1- US median home price versus total US employees. 1970 through 2021 (YE est.). Since 2019: —HomeContinue reading “Less is More”
House of Pain
Tim Knight: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/11/burning-down-the-house-2.html Burning Down the House One of today’s train wrecks is Zillow (symbol Z) which I only found out recently decided that no one knew more about real estate data than they did, so they would become the world’s biggest house-flippers. Well, that’s not working out so great. It would be like takingContinue reading “House of Pain”
Bonds Away!
The US bond market may be closed, but it was fully open in China, and locals took advantage of this fact to do one thing: sell. In the aftermath of our viral post “”Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play“, China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball onContinue reading “Bonds Away!”
Peak Ponzi: Domino Theory
Evergrande: Companies like Evergrande. Junk companies borrowing USDs at 20%+ comprising ~35 “significant” companies representing 12.5% of the current market cap of the Red Ponzi property sector has already lost some $500 billion to date. These companies develop and sell the 85% of homes bought as investment property – speculators – facing to be a seriousContinue reading “Peak Ponzi: Domino Theory”
Ball. Court. Germany: how do you like those 2000EURs/month heating bills?
Gold, Goats, and Guns: https://tomluongo.me/2021/10/06/european-energy-crisis-gas-you-think-burning/ The European Gas Crisis keeps hitting new high after new high as gas prices around the world go ballistic. While this isn’t just a European problem, if you read the MSM, that’s all they seem to care about. You know, it snows in Japan as well folks, and China.Continue reading “Ball. Court. Germany: how do you like those 2000EURs/month heating bills?”
Econophysics2020 