Sarah Connor (Terminator 2): “The Survivors of the nuclear holocaust called the war Judgement Day. They lived only to face a new nightmare: the way against the machines.” ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evegrande-default-inevitable-sp-warns-chinese-developer-misses-dollar-bond-payments Evergrande Default Is “Inevitable” – S&P Warns As Chinese Developer Misses Dollar Bond Payments Having sold its Gulfstream Jets, dumped assets (at fire-sale prices), and seenContinue reading “Judgment Day for Evergrande”
Category Archives: Banking
House of Pain
Tim Knight: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/11/burning-down-the-house-2.html Burning Down the House One of today’s train wrecks is Zillow (symbol Z) which I only found out recently decided that no one knew more about real estate data than they did, so they would become the world’s biggest house-flippers. Well, that’s not working out so great. It would be like takingContinue reading “House of Pain”
Monetary Politburo News
The “Martens” at Wall Street on Parade weighed in today on the dynamics of endless money creation: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/02/wall-street-sends-a-message-to-the-fed-we-have-run-out-of-places-to-stuff-your-treasuries/ The practical dynamics. As in “where all this sh___ goes” dynamics. Recall we have a monetary politburo for all sorts of reasons you likely heard before – bankers want to offload their liquidity risk onto the public,Continue reading “Monetary Politburo News”
Inflation Ahead? Or Is It Already Here?
Here is the M1 – the most liquid of all measures of the USD money stock. Note the growth during the Obama years following the Great Financial Crisis. Slowed a bit under Trump. But relentlessly grew faster than the economy. Until CoVid hit when the M1 exploded. Until November 2020 when the M1 went hypersonic.Continue reading “Inflation Ahead? Or Is It Already Here?”
Bill Blain on Bonker Markets
“It’s been truly extraordinary. DoorDash, a food delivery company that’s never made a penny profit is worth $70bln? It exists in a no-barriers-to-entry, highly price competitive, and ultimate risk sector – where if Micky D makes a bad burger they get the blame. It’s also a concept that’s shifting on the value curve. Money ain’tContinue reading “Bill Blain on Bonker Markets”
Hostile Power – the source of US fentanyl addictions adds narco-terrorist money laundering to their portfolio
“Routing cartel drug profits from the United States to China then on to Mexico with a few clicks of a burner phone and Chinese banking apps – and without the bulky cash ever crossing borders. The launderers pay small Chinese-owned businesses in the United States and Mexico to help them move the funds. Most contact withContinue reading “Hostile Power – the source of US fentanyl addictions adds narco-terrorist money laundering to their portfolio”
John Tuld: “If you’re first out the door, that’s not called panicking.”
“Margin Call” is a 2011 film that follows the key people at an investment bank, over a 24-hour period, during the early stages of the financial crisis. Written and directed by J.C. Chandor, we learn from the firm’s CEO, “John Tuld” (played by Jeremy Irons) that successfully running a banking business can come down toContinue reading “John Tuld: “If you’re first out the door, that’s not called panicking.””
Commercial Loan Demand Crash
Last quarter, we saw collapsing consumer loan supply, tighter loan conditions, and consumer demand falling to record low levels. That was then. This is now. the latest round of bank earnings saw a collapse in loan loss provisions across the US banking sector, which miraculously plunged from near all time highs back to pre-covid levelsContinue reading “Commercial Loan Demand Crash”
Loss Loss Reserves – and CECL Relief
With Senator Chuck Schumer covering their backs under CARES Act stimulus, mega banks don’t need to think much about reserving for losses on financial instruments under Current Expected Credit Losses or CECL (pronounced Cecil). So, what kind of reserves are indicated? A lot less than the Crash.