Hull Breach

Tim Knight (Slope of Hope) enumerates the support breaches: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/03/index-omnibus.html#more-194173 With the giant reversal taking place today, let’s take a fresh look at some important indexes, in alphabetical order. First is the $COMP, the Dow Jones Composite. This cracked through its trendline on Friday, but it has sprung right back above it. We’ll see ifContinue reading “Hull Breach”

Chris Whalen on the 2025 Correction

When we compare Weimar Germany a century ago to Oligarch America today, it’s easy to get a sense of deja vu. So how does this play out? As always, Chris Whalen can explain: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/the-great-correction-of-2025 In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we focus on the global tendency toward inflation even as economists insist thatContinue reading “Chris Whalen on the 2025 Correction”

Monetary Politburo News

The “Martens” at Wall Street on Parade weighed in today on the dynamics of endless money creation: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/02/wall-street-sends-a-message-to-the-fed-we-have-run-out-of-places-to-stuff-your-treasuries/ The practical dynamics. As in “where all this sh___ goes” dynamics. Recall we have a monetary politburo for all sorts of reasons you likely heard before – bankers want to offload their liquidity risk onto the public,Continue reading “Monetary Politburo News”

27% of Household Income now comes from the Government

USBEA Personal Income and Outlays: https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2021 Let’s think in terms of a good news/bad news joke. Personal income increased $1,954.7 billion (10.0 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1,963.2 billion (11.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasedContinue reading “27% of Household Income now comes from the Government”

ZB – Free Fallin’

But what’s more important is that it is dropping while picking up velocity while realized volatility is also dropping. Connect the dots McFly. Or, let Evil Speculator do it for you: https://evilspeculator.com/the-pressure-cooker/ Mmm num ba deDum bum ba beDoo buh dum ba beh beh Pressure pushing down on mePressing down on you, no man askContinue reading “ZB – Free Fallin’”

Mind the Wedgies

Wedges are characterized by a contracting range in prices coupled with a trend – upward is a “rising wedge” while downward is a falling wedge. Wedges are transitive – they form near the top or bottom of a trend and often resolve within ~4 weeks. In the case of an upward trend, resolution can triggerContinue reading “Mind the Wedgies”

The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt

Chris Hamilton’s Econimica blog remains one of my favorites. In his latest posting, Chris’s punchline remains on-point and entertaining Some say these are the seeds of the second American revolution as a class of unelected, undemocratic central bankers enrich a tiny majority at the expense of the majority…but I just like making colorful charts. IContinue reading “The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt”

Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High

What can possibly go wrong? Well, here’s JPM’s John Normand ,head of cross-asset strategy, (courtesy of ZeroHedge): https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/complacency-20-year-highs-jpm-models-warn-imminent-correction Current readings for individual indicators and the composite are summarized in charts 3 and 4. In Chart 3, four of the seven cross-asset measures have moved beyond the levels that have preceded previous corrections (short and long-term valuation, positioningContinue reading “Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High”

Deja Vu All Over Again: 50 DMA Reconnects

February 2020: February 2021: Sven Henrich (Northman Trader): https://northmantrader.com/2021/02/09/signal-fire-3/ No, this market is really not behaving that much differently from the one that led to the February 2020 top. Back then of course the Fed too was printing running their Repo program having cut rates three times already, now of course printing still $120B aContinue reading “Deja Vu All Over Again: 50 DMA Reconnects”

Long Acme

From EvilSpeculator: https://evilspeculator.com/long-acme/ Social media giants have been channeling their inner Wile E. Coyote over the past few days for rather obvious reasons you are most likely aware of but which clearly fall outside the context of what we do and worry about here at Evil Speculator. Again, there is a myriad of places thatContinue reading “Long Acme”