Mind the Wedgies

Wedges are characterized by a contracting range in prices coupled with a trend – upward is a “rising wedge” while downward is a falling wedge. Wedges are transitive – they form near the top or bottom of a trend and often resolve within ~4 weeks. In the case of an upward trend, resolution can triggerContinue reading “Mind the Wedgies”

The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt

Chris Hamilton’s Econimica blog remains one of my favorites. In his latest posting, Chris’s punchline remains on-point and entertaining Some say these are the seeds of the second American revolution as a class of unelected, undemocratic central bankers enrich a tiny majority at the expense of the majority…but I just like making colorful charts. IContinue reading “The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt”

Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High

What can possibly go wrong? Well, here’s JPM’s John Normand ,head of cross-asset strategy, (courtesy of ZeroHedge): https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/complacency-20-year-highs-jpm-models-warn-imminent-correction Current readings for individual indicators and the composite are summarized in charts 3 and 4. In Chart 3, four of the seven cross-asset measures have moved beyond the levels that have preceded previous corrections (short and long-term valuation, positioningContinue reading “Cross-Asset Complacency at 20-yr High”

Deja Vu All Over Again: 50 DMA Reconnects

February 2020: February 2021: Sven Henrich (Northman Trader): https://northmantrader.com/2021/02/09/signal-fire-3/ No, this market is really not behaving that much differently from the one that led to the February 2020 top. Back then of course the Fed too was printing running their Repo program having cut rates three times already, now of course printing still $120B aContinue reading “Deja Vu All Over Again: 50 DMA Reconnects”

Long Acme

From EvilSpeculator: https://evilspeculator.com/long-acme/ Social media giants have been channeling their inner Wile E. Coyote over the past few days for rather obvious reasons you are most likely aware of but which clearly fall outside the context of what we do and worry about here at Evil Speculator. Again, there is a myriad of places thatContinue reading “Long Acme”

Centrally Planned Shock and Awe

Per Sven Henrich: https://northmantrader.com/2021/02/03/bounce-2/ Sharing is caring and in this spirit I wanted to share some technical insights into this week’s market bounce following the aggressive flush down last week. As of late I’ve been hearing more and more people throw their hands up in the air and declare that technicals no longer work inContinue reading “Centrally Planned Shock and Awe”

Whack SPACs

Contrarian shares a cautionary tale: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4401822-current-speculative-bubble-dwarfs-1999-2000 From highly shorted equities to SPACs to the largest capitalization market stocks, an almost all encompassing pervasive bubble has made future real returns lower than any other time in modern market history for the U.S. stock market. The abysmal level of future expected real returns is dismal even compared to 2000Continue reading “Whack SPACs”

Home Prices Soar At 4.5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities

Tyler Durden (ZeroHedge): Well, here’s an idea: maybe all the central-planning megabrains at the Marriner Eccles building and 33 Liberty Street can take a break from whatever circle jerk they are engaged in right now, and look at the latest Case Shiller numbers which showed not only that home prices surged at the fastest pace inContinue reading “Home Prices Soar At 4.5 Times The Fed’s Inflation Target In All US Cities”