https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets: The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check Facebook faceplants on youth exodus The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral EUContinue reading “Saxo Bank’s 22 Calls for 2022”
Category Archives: Currency
Evergrande Implosion
How do you say “too big to fail?” How big? Well, we can see just how big real soon as China slides into deflation. Here’s IICS: http://investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/china-land-sales-collapse.html China Land Sales Collapse, Deflation Cometh I outlined China’s credit trouble here: The Quick and Dirty Summary of China’s Credit Bubble yesterday. It’s a quick overview touching some of theContinue reading “Evergrande Implosion”
Peak Population – Sow the Wind, Reap the Whirlwind
Chris Hamilton of Econimica shared two graphs reproduced above that summarize all we need to know about macro trends (see https://econimica.blogspot.com/2021/04/ever-fewer-people-need-ever-more.html). You don’t need the usual “talking head” on Squawk Box, or “insights” from some economist to explain the role of “economic slack”. It’s simple physics: wage-generating population (and, households), and money stock. All thereContinue reading “Peak Population – Sow the Wind, Reap the Whirlwind”
The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt
Chris Hamilton’s Econimica blog remains one of my favorites. In his latest posting, Chris’s punchline remains on-point and entertaining Some say these are the seeds of the second American revolution as a class of unelected, undemocratic central bankers enrich a tiny majority at the expense of the majority…but I just like making colorful charts. IContinue reading “The Hard Realities of Population Dynamics and Accelerating Debt”
China Joe v. Gold
China Joe seems bent on blowing out the money supply in an absolutely pathetic hope of “stimulating” demand and GDP growth. Well, the only thing likely to be “stimulated” is the demand for synthetic gold (you know what that is) and gold. Here are your trading targets – “shooters, watch your lane.”
A Blue Wave of Helicopter Money
Corporate elites get their payday. As for the rest? Qu’ils mangent du gâteau. And remember what history teaches happens next: après moi le déluge https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-full-blue-wave-implications-politics-markets-and-economy
Bill Blain on Bonker Markets
“It’s been truly extraordinary. DoorDash, a food delivery company that’s never made a penny profit is worth $70bln? It exists in a no-barriers-to-entry, highly price competitive, and ultimate risk sector – where if Micky D makes a bad burger they get the blame. It’s also a concept that’s shifting on the value curve. Money ain’tContinue reading “Bill Blain on Bonker Markets”
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
Maybe Chinese exporters are overstating their exports, in general and to the United States. Overstating exports is a classic way of getting capital into a country with capital controls. Or, maybe US tariffs have created a strong incentive for firms importing into the United States to go to some lengths to understate their imports from China. Thus, U.S.Continue reading “Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics”
The Trend’s Your Friend Until It Ends
Tim Knight (Slope of Hope) on sine wave correlations: “Since cryptos have been on an absolute tear lately, I was curious how Bitcoin correlated with equities. Here, below, is the SPY with its correlation to $BTC beneath. As you can see, right now they’re about as correlated as they can be, with equities and cryptosContinue reading “The Trend’s Your Friend Until It Ends”
Econophysics2020 