Chris Hamilton of Econimica: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2021/11/housing-employment-inflation-and-2022.html Housing, Employment, Inflation, and 2022 Some times saying less can say more. Given that, I’m going to offer four variables relating to housing and hopefully let them and their relationships do the talking. 1- US median home price versus total US employees. 1970 through 2021 (YE est.). Since 2019: —HomeContinue reading “Less is More”
Category Archives: Monetary Policy
Black Monday: October 19, 1987
Nothing was ever the same after that day. From here, the Fed beginning a 34 year long suppression of interest rates at a level never seen before. Global Macro Monitor tells the tale: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/18/black-monday-1987-inside-the-u-s-treasury-2/ The following exchange took place between President Reagan and reporters after the market close on Black Monday, October 19, 1987. LeavingContinue reading “Black Monday: October 19, 1987”
“We got Condition Red and we’re definitely expecting rain.”
Excess liquidity is the ratio of a monetary aggregate to nominal GDP. It is often referred to as the “Marshallian K”, which is equivalent to the inverse of the “velocity of money.” The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip inContinue reading ““We got Condition Red and we’re definitely expecting rain.””
Yikes! Inflation Nation!!!
Energy and Transportation costs lead the way The index for final demand services rose 1.1 percent in July, the largest one-month increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. Final demand goods up 0.6 percent in July following a 1.2-percent jump in June. Nearly half of the broad-based advance in July is attributable toContinue reading “Yikes! Inflation Nation!!!”
Reverse Repo Madness
Is this the work of a serious artist? And here’s Tyler showing you what’s ahead: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/25-trillion-reverse-repo-year-end RRP volume is quickly approaching $1 trillion a day, with today’s reverse repo usage hitting the second highest on record at $987.3 billion and just shy of $1 trillion. And with QE still running at $120 billion a month,Continue reading “Reverse Repo Madness”
“TED’s Dead, Baby. TED’s Dead”
The gospel according to Tim Knight: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/07/smashed.html Just in case any of you with mortgages and other interest-bearing debt are worried about rates, I’d say this is not a situation that is going to change anytime in our natural lives. And, while we’re on the subject, here’s the IMF on the corrosive effect firm market power hasContinue reading ““TED’s Dead, Baby. TED’s Dead””
Econophysics2020 