Atlanta Fed: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Latest estimate: 0.3 percent — June 27, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on June 27, up from 0.0 percent on June 16. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the National Association of Realtors, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -9.0 percent to -8.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is is Thursday, June 30. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
Here are some take-aways, per MishTalk
- Real Final Sales (RFS) is the true bottom line forecast of the economy.
- The difference between GDP and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
- RFS is 1.7 percent, unchanged since June 26.
- Base GDP is up to 0.3 percent from June 26, a meaningless rise in size but more importantly because RFS is the number to watch.
- Since June 16 the most important data releases were existing and new home sales.
- June 24: New Home Sales Jump 10.7 Percent in Big Upward Surprise
- June 21: Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May, Down Fourth Month
The net impact of housing was essentially nothing.
Bottom line – tune into the June 30 update to GDPNow