The map above is from The Skar. Note the black lines – they appear to be emergent threat axes for two double envelopments – one east of the Dnieper and a second well west of the Dnieper along a line anchored by Odessa and Kiev.

The operations at Kiev are starting to appear to be a demonstration meant to hold Ukrainian forces in place. Meanwhile, an amphibious assault on Odessa appears to be developing which would cut off both a retreat to the Black Sea as well as interdict a port of entry should NATO attempt to engage in the 11th hour.

Very reminiscent of the Gulf War where Coalition forces held the Iraqi army in the east with a demonstration by US Marine Corps heavy armor on the ground and combined forces aboard amphibious vessels in the Gulf while a mechanized cavalry/heavy armor force swung out into the desert and crashed into the Republican Guard flank at the Battle of 73 Easting to broadcasted cavalry bugles sounding a 19th century “charge” straight out of a John Wayne movie.

The double envelopment maneuver is taught to all officers and built into military tactics of all Tier 1 armies throughout history. It was used by Alexander the Great at the Battle of the Hydaspes in 326 BC. Launching his attack at the Indian left flank, the Indian king Porus reacted by sending the cavalry on the right of his formation around in support. Alexander had positioned two cavalry units on the left of his formation, hidden from view, under the command of Coenus and Demitrius. The units were then able to follow Porus’s cavalry around, trapping them in a classic pincer movement.

If you think the “40 mile convoy” is all about a direct assault on Kiev, consider an alternative destination — cutting off the last retreat of Ukrainian forces.

Spooks start civil wars — militaries end them.

Keep that mind as we turn to the thoughts of Tom Luongo.: https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/02/opening-salvos-tossed-putin-next-moves-ukraine/

Last week I wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin rewrote the rules for the geopolitical game board. A week into his campaign to officially “demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine” it’s clear to me that Putin’s ambitions lie far beyond this stated goal.

He will, however, stick to that script until that part of the campaign is complete.

Today I want to start outlining where we go next and to do that we have to describe where we are.

Looking around the reports that are the most credible (and properly bracketing for any partisanship) we are staring at a complete, effective neutralization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to hold any of the ethnically-dominant areas of Ukraine.

In a post for my patrons on February 25th, responding to an excellent article by Alistair MacLeod I wrote the following:

MacLeod: Both sides probably do not know how fragile the Eurozone banking system is, with both the ECB and its national central bank shareholders already having liabilities greater than their assets. In other words, rising interest rates have broken the euro system and an economic and financial catastrophe on its eastern flank will probably trigger its collapse.

I’ve been banging my shoe on this table for 3 years now.  If the US/NATO respond with some kind of guerilla war here to hang Ukraine like an albatross around Putin’s neck, as we should expect, then Europe is in big trouble financially.  

Because the financial war will keep escalating as Putin responds militarily.  Remember, he’s openly threatened the ‘decision makers’ here.  And no amount of mealy-mouthed CIA/MI6 disinformation will deter him from action anymore.

This is always what I meant by “spooks start civil wars, militaries end them.”  There is no more War for Ukraine.  

I still believe that. This isn’t a war for Ukraine, it’s a war for the future of the entire world. Ukraine represents the hill both Davos and Russia have chosen to live or die on.

The Afghanistan Gambit

Davos has refused to let President Zelensky surrender because if he does then legally there is no more war to sanction Russia with. It’s not Putin’s War at that point, it is a settled conflict and terms negotiated.

At that point what’s left of Ukraine can be carved up into pieces. It’s way to early for that to occur, so you’ll see constant threats of peace talks, but that’s only to assuage the fears of the capital markets, which is where Davos has the most control over the situation.

The primary goal of the information war from the West is to push capital markets as far in its favor as possible, keeping things within the bounds of the ‘acceptable’ to avoid any short-term pain. Gold is still under it’s all-time high, which is just hilarious.

That said, in that same post I put up this map of a future Ukraine which I felt, conservatively, would be in effect by the end of this year. Events are moving far faster than that, however.

Chernihiv and Sumy are also in play, as is Lviv as a bargaining chip to Poland. As Fmr. Col. Douglas Macgregor pointed out on Fox News recently, everything east of the Dnieper River will become part of a new Novorussia, if not part of the Russian Federation.

Clearly this is Putin’s initial goal, the partitioning of Ukraine. He’s moved militarily, the EU and the rest of the West have responded financially. Their hope is to turn Ukraine into a quagmire, a la Afghanistan (per Hillary Clinton’s recent remarks), which they hope Russia will not be able to sustain after being choked off from the global economy.

The financial sanctions regime put in place so far are brutal but also full of holes wide enough for Putin to maneuver within and around because of the well understood facts of Russia’s dominance as a global supplier of life-sustaining commodities for the entire world.

This is an asymmetric war.

There isn’t much farther the West can go financially. They’ve seized Bank of Russia foreign assets, for pity’s sake. What other weapons do they really have in their arsenal which can threaten Russia with?

They have, in effect, executed their nuclear first strike against Russia. Once you’ve gone nuclear, where do you go next? Real nukes? Yes, that’s a possibility, sadly, given the people we’re talking about.

On the other hand, Russia has so far only committed the necessary troops to neutralize Ukraine. So, in this respect, big advantage Russia.

Facts on the ground are facts. Russia has taken territory it can maintain. By not targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure, Russia has put itself in a very good position to not face an insane insurgency which the West can finance in the way that it has in past conflicts.

Much of NATO’s in-country assets have been neutralized. And you know this because the propaganda and rhetoric have been so thoroughly crude, cartoonish and strident. Again, ask why the financial and informational war has been so intense?

Is it because the West thinks it’s winning or because it’s trying desperately to pivot domestic populations to solidarity after losing massive credibility during the last year with COVID-19 related lockdowns, vax passes, and the unpersoning of whole swaths of Western society?

The Real Russian Cauldron

Now let’s ask the next question that keeps coming up.

Why has Putin not shut off the gas to a Europe that is rapidly running out of it?

Because to do so would target civilian populations. If he’s not targeting civilians in Ukraine to minimize their anger at being invaded, then why would he use that weapon now against civilians in Germany who hold the key to getting overthrowing the insane politicians and oligarchs who provoked this war in the first place?

It doesn’t make any strategic sense. It also speaks to a kind of confidence in Russia’s military position in Ukraine, thereby lending credence to the reports that Russia is achieving her strategic goals on the ground in Ukraine.

Okay, that’s the lay of the land.

So, what are Putin’s real goals? Like I said at the outset, nothing less than breaking the back of Davos and their agents in the US/UK who have tormented Russia for more than a century.

How does he achieve that goal?

Putin is creating incontrovertible facts which his opponents must respond to. Again, he’s setting the operational tempo, like I said last week.

Their counter-moves are insipid and predictable. Ukraine has asked for admission into the EU. The EU is open to this. Georgia is now doing the same thing. Turkey is livid. Hungary is not getting involved.

No one is willing to actually send arms to Ukraine.

What does the EU achieve by adding Ukraine? Do they think because they signed a piece of paper with a person who is de facto not in charge of his country going to change the facts on the ground there?

Do they still think “stroke of the pen, law of the land, kinda cool” matters at this point?

Because if the EU accepts Ukraine into its ranks, then it will be responsible for the next stage of escalation, not Putin. It will then have to figure out how to oust the Russians from their territory.

Last night President Sundowner made the entire US State of the Union about Ukraine. Do they really think a president with an approval rating that is, at best 37%, capable of marshalling the US into fighting a war for Europe against Russia after bankrupting us with NATO for three generations?

If they are, they are more delusional than even I’ve contemplated at this point.

Is NATO prepared to expand now into Ukraine under the umbrella of EU membership?

What’s obvious to me is the neocons and neoliberals controlling the West think they can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Putin, but what if Putin thinks he can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for them?

Russia is not capable of conquering Europe. But he doesn’t need to to defeat them. He just needs to create a version of the map I posted above.

The Limits of Money Wars

If Putin and Russia have achieved, or are about to achieve, all of their military goals in Ukraine, what do they do to secure those gains?

They have to neutralize the financial war waged against them and create an environment where Europe spends money it doesn’t have, with failing political capital domestically, and bankrupts them completely.

And the first move along those lines was just announced by the Russian Finance Ministry today (VPN and Deepl translator needed).

What does this mean? It means simply that Russia has now, in effect, begun the remonetization of gold for domestic purposes. By removing the VAT on gold purchases Russian citizens can now offset their currency risk with gold and stabilize the domestic monetary situation.

The first step in offsetting financial warfare from the West is allowing the domestic population to be immune to collapses in their currency from foreign actors pulling capital out of the country. Companies doing international business now have an alternative to hold time deposits which are far less volatile than the ruble without penalty. Gold becomes the coin of Russia’s international business.

It’s the beginning of the process of draining physical gold from the global market and control over its price by the ponzi schemes that are the COMEX and the LBMA.

This is a first step in rebuilding confidence in the Russian banking system rather than what we’re seeing in the West which is the ritualistic assault on privacy, wealth generation and the value of our labor, which is degrading rapidly thanks to inflation, which will rage from here as all energy and commodity markets are scared to death of Davos’ financial war on Russia.

As Luke Gromen pointed out on Twitter this is the big signal that the petrodollar system is headed for the ashbin of history.

Failure of imagination, or western hubris.

Alternative view: Russia will soon begin to demonstrate in very stark terms that in the Petrodollar system, it is the "Petro-" portion that is the true value, not the "-dollar" portion, via either price or shortages or both. https://t.co/ee6MlHTogu

— Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) March 2, 2022

With the global oil market in a complete state of shock as no one wants to run afoul of US and/or EU sanctions on Russian energy, the price of oil here potentially goes parabolic. At that point reality hits the money masters squarely in the face.

Those that brave the waters will get their oil at a steep discount, those that don’t will pay through the nose, further accelerating the decline of those economies as inflation spirals out of control and the people put the blame, not on Putin, but on the people in charge.

Moreover, Russia has kept the gas flows going to ensure that money keeps flowing into the country to finance further expansion of its gold reserves.

The current shock will abate. Russia is not Iran. It can insure its own tanker fleet. It can deliver the oil. If Iran could survive what Trump did to them, Russia can thrive under this new regime, changing the entire flow of capital around the world.

Now, I want to turn your attention to the other news of which further corroborates that Davos and Europe are trapped. FOMC Chair Jerome Powell testified today telling the world that the Fed will still hike 25 basis points in March. Bullard came out and said the Fed has to withdraw accommodation to maintain its credibility.

Further Powell blamed both the Fed and Congress for inflation. It’s a result of too much spending.

Powell even floated the idea that the world can have more than one reserve currency (!!). Meanwhile Biden is talking about bringing back Build Back Better and sending us down the road to financial ruin.

The fight between Davos and the Fed, which I identified last summer is real, folks. That leaves a belligerent yet impotent Europe caught between the Scylla of a Fed drying up the global supply of dollars and the Carbides of a Russian military capable of withstanding anything Europe throws at them if the US doesn’t get involved, i.e. this doesn’t go nuclear.

NATO isn’t getting involved in Ukraine even if Ukraine becomes an EU member. They can have the landlocked rump of what’s left over. If Putin is smart, which he is, he will offer the Poles Lviv and Hungary Transcarpathia. The EU gets the dregs.

It’s clear from the wailing and gnashing of the Neocon/Neolibs that they want Putin Milosevic’d for daring to put them in this position. They still dream of overthrowing him. It’s also clear that there are a lot of people who are not down with the willful destruction of the current global economy within the upper reaches of US policy makers and European corporate boards.

This is the real fight for the future and if Davos thinks extreme demand destruction will be tolerated for any length of time over a regional conflict like Ukraine because it’s their ox being gored, then this war, while still raging is, in effect, already over.

We also have the text for tonight’s State of the Union, courtesy of Simon Black of Sovereign Man

March 1, 2022

My fellow Americans.

Now that my approval ratings are roughly at the same level as my blood pressure, i.e. barely detectable, and my credibility is nonexistent, I thought I might actually try being honest for a change about the real State of the Union.

Just over a year ago when I took oath of office, I talked about “the common objects we love that define us as Americans. . . Opportunity. Security. Liberty. Dignity. Respect. Honor. And yes, the truth.”

So let me describe to you the State of our Union in those terms:

First, opportunity.

Under my leadership, inflation has reached a 40+ year high and shows no signs of abating.

I’ve also demonstrated how serious I am about fighting inflation by re-appointing the very same Federal Reserve officials who created the inflation to begin with, to another four-year term.

Further, the supply chain crisis we engineered from our cascading failures of labor policy, environmental policy, trade policy, monetary policy, and public health policy, also shows little sign of resolving.

We’ve also been instrumental in destroying the labor market and making it virtually impossible to find workers.

Plus my administration continues to impose new regulations by the day, threaten new taxes, and put out unintelligible public health policies, that make things especially difficult for small and medium-sized businesses.

But at least Pfizer’s profits are at a record high.

Second, security.

Our southern border was overwhelmed with countless migrants almost literally the moment I took office. We continue to ignore this growing crisis.

Similarly, we choose to ignore soaring rates of murder in America’s cities.

As Commander-in-Chief, I ordered the US military to hastily withdraw from Afghanistan without sufficient time to make adequate preparations. As a result, the entire world witnessed one of the most disgraceful, shameful events in US history as we left behind our citizens, our allies, and tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer-funded military equipment to our sworn enemy.

I tried making up for this personal and national humiliation by trying to outmaneuver Vladimir Putin over Ukraine.

My son Hunter and I obviously have a soft spot for Ukraine. But my real priority was using Putin’s military buildup as an opportunity to appear strong again, and hopefully boost my sagging poll numbers.

Despite my years of foreign policy experience, I failed to foresee the consequences of provoking Putin, pushing him into a corner, and essentially daring him to invade.

(And now, by the way, as we are pushing Russia out of the SWIFT international banking platform, I am also failing to foresee the obvious risk of Putin hacking it. But more on that another time…)

You may recall that, while I was hiding in my basement during the 2020 Presidential campaign, I promised voters a “steady hand” when it came to diplomacy and national security.

Well, this is what 5 decades of government experience gets you.

Third, liberty.

We continue to foster a climate where the government tells you what you’re supposed to believe, what you have to put in your body, and how you’re allowed to educate your children.

We think nothing of imposing illegal, unconstitutional mandates, and handing public health bureaucrats the authority to regulate everything from nationwide commerce to the entire US housing market.

Justin Trudeau recently set a fantastic example for us to follow when it comes to individual freedom, and so we’re working hard to become Canada as quickly as possible.

Fourth, dignity and respect.

I promised the American people unity in my inaugural address. I said that “we must end this uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal.”

Naturally I have completely abandoned that promise. Not only have I failed to rein in the intolerant, out-of-control leftist puritans waging cultural genocide across America, but I set a clear example for them by labeling my ideological opponents as White Supremacists.

I call legislation I don’t like “Jim Crow 2.0”. And I encourage federal police agencies to investigate parents who don’t want Critical Race Theory taught to their children in public schools.

Fifth, honor.

My short time in office has brought extreme dishonor upon the reputation of the United States. In addition to the humiliation in Afghanistan, the rest of the world must be in shock as they see the constant chaos and absurdity of our government.

We are more consumed by pronouns than progress. We publicly embrace Marxist ideologies. We push our intelligence agencies to prioritize diversity and inclusion over national security. We deliberately undercut our ally—the French—to do a submarine deal with Australia that provided absolutely zero benefit to our nation.

And just recently our public debt reached a whopping $30 trillion… which hardly brings any honor or esteem to our nation.

Last but not least, truth.

I told Americans last year during my inauguration that “each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans. . . to defend the truth and to defeat the lies.”

That’s why my administration has worked diligently to suppress free speech. We believe that #science has only one authority figure, and anyone who disagrees with his eminence, Lord Protector Fauci, is guilty of misinformation.

For that reason we enlisted the support of Big Tech to remove posts and terminate user accounts upon our request.

We claim that we love democracy so much, yet we continue to assert federal control over state and local elections. One of our goals is to squash any state law requiring voters to present valid identification before being allowed to cast their ballots.

Requiring identification would help reduce voter fraud and increase election security. But we like voter fraud… so we’re opposed to any identification requirement and label them as racist.

We also rely on the mainstream media, which absurdly claims to be objective and unbiased, to reinforce our ridiculous propaganda. They do so willingly and voluntarily, refraining from holding me accountable or asking any difficult questions whatsoever.

This, my fellow Americans, is the real State of our Union.

(Tonight, however, I’m going to tell a bunch of pathetic lies that no one will believe about what a great job I’m doing.)

And if you feel a bit down about the State of our Union, just remember– I’ll still be President for another 3 years, 10 months, 19 days. We have a looooong way to go.

ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-global-banks-largest-exposures-russian-sanctions

Following Zoltan Pozsar’s blueprint for how the US/UK/EU sanctions unveiled over the weekend could lead to problems in the “plumbing” of the global financial ecosystem, we have seen several cracks appear already.

Dollar liquidity is drying up – and thus getting more costly – especially against the Euro…

And while both US and European bank stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, we note that US bounced back modestly while Europe’s financials couldn’t managed much (despite the overall indices rebounding from deep losses)…

So, the question is – which banks are most exposed to the ongoing (and escalating) threat of sanctions on Russia?

Specifically, among other more arcane details, the sanctions relate to:

• freeze of assets,
• capabilities of certain largest Russian banks to process transactions and
• proposed ban of certain payment avenues (SWIFT).

While the Russian banks have been in freefall recently (most especially the sanctioned ones)…

In their latest report, Goldman Sachs attempts to calculate the exposures that US and European banks face to these threats.

European banks exposure

In assessing exposure to Russia we use data from the latest EBA transparency exercise (June 2021); we acknowledge that certain banks have disclosed more recent figures and that the aggregate picture may have changed since June 2021 – but we use EBA data for the purpose of comparability. This data shows that (i) overall Russia exposure of European (EU/EEA) banks is small at €66bn – this is equivalent to 0.25% of banks aggregate exposure amount, (ii) concentrated among three banks (RBI, SG and UCG) and (iii) the impact on these groups is diluted owing to geographic diversification (Russian exposure is <5% of group loans for all banks apart for RBI at 9%). The direct exposure is therefore limited, in our view.

The EBA data shows that the banks with the largest exposure to Russia are (as at 06/21):

• UniCredit: Total exposure of €13.7bn (of which €1.2bn is Government, €12.6bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 1.6% of total exposure.
• Société Générale: Total exposure of €14.3bn (of which €2.5bn is Government, €11.8bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 1.7% of total.
• Raiffeisen Bank International: Total exposure of €14.3bn (of which €2.4bn is Government, €11.9bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 9.3% of total exposure.

The Nancy Trade

I say “Booyah!”

Pretty much sums it up.

Adapted from Sovereign Man

Publius Cornelius Tacitus c. AD 56 – c. 120) was a Roman historian and politician and widely regarded as one of the greatest Roman historians

He lived in the Silver Age of Latin literature and has a reputation for the brevity and compactness of his Latin prose, as well as for his penetrating insights into the psychology of power politics.

The surviving portions of his two major works—the Annals (Latin: Annales) and the Histories (Latin: Historiae)—examine the reigns of the emperors Tiberius, Claudius, Nero, and those who reigned in the Year of the Four Emperors (69 AD). These two works span the history of the Roman Empire from the death of Augustus, in 14 AD, to 70 AD in the First Jewish–Roman War of 66–73. There are substantial lacunae in the surviving texts, including a gap in the Annals that is four books long.

“To ravage, to slaughter, to steal, this they give the false name of empire; and where they create a desert, they call it peace.”

Tacitus, “Agricola”

The core of the campaign history of the Roman military is an aggregate of different accounts of the Roman military‘s land battles, from its initial defense against and subsequent conquest of the city’s hilltop neighbors on the Italian peninsula, to the ultimate struggle of the Western Roman Empire for its existence against invading Huns, Vandals and Germanic tribes. These accounts were written by various authors throughout and after the history of the Empire. Following the First Punic War, naval battles were less significant than land battles to the military history of Rome due to its encompassment of lands of the periphery and its unchallenged dominance of the Mediterranean Sea.

Despite their formidable reputation and host of victories, Roman armies were not invincible. Romans “produced their share of incompetents” who led Roman armies into catastrophic defeats. Nevertheless, it was generally the fate of even the greatest of Rome’s enemies, such as Pyrrhus and Hannibal, to win the battle but lose the war. The history of Rome’s campaigning is, if nothing else, a history of obstinate persistence overcoming appalling losses.

“He realized that monarchy was essential to peace, and that the price of freedom was violence and disorder.”

Tacitus, “Histories”

The year 238 AD began with Maximinus I as Emperor of Rome– a former peasant who had worked his way up through the ranks of the military before being chosen as Emperor by his troops.

By August of that year, Maximinus was dead, and five other men had briefly held the title of Emperor. Only one (Gordian III) was still alive by the end of 238 AD.

This is known in Roman history as the ‘Year of the Six Emperors’, and it was an obvious watershed moment in the decline of the empire.

It’s not like Rome hadn’t seen plenty of turmoil before–

There had been full-blown civil war between Julius Caesar and Pompey the Great nearly three centuries prior in 49 BC. Caligula managed to engineer a major supply chain crisis during his reign in the early 1st century AD.

Much of the city of Rome burned to the ground under Emperor Nero in 64 AD. Caracalla heavily debased the currency and caused widespread inflation in the early 200s.

And more than a dozen emperors had been assassinated up to that point in Roman history.

People were used to crisis and chaos. But the Year of the Six Emperors felt different. It was as if Romans suddenly realized they were no longer the dominant superpower.

“Prosperity is the measure or touchstone of virtue, for it is less difficult to bear misfortune than to remain uncorrupted by pleasure.

Tacitus

Although the crisis of the 3rd century was not the absolute beginning of Rome’s decline, it nevertheless did impose a severe strain on the empire as Romans waged war on one another as they had not done since the last days of the Republic.

Within the space of a single century, twenty-seven military officers declared themselves emperors and reigned over parts of the empire for months or days, all but two meeting with a violent end. 

The time was characterized by a Roman army that was as likely to be attacking itself as it was an outside invader, reaching a low point around 258 AD. Ironically, while it was these usurpations that led to the breakup of the Empire during the crisis, it was the strength of several frontier generals that helped reunify the empire through force of arms.

The next few decades, in fact, are known as the “Crisis of the Third Century”, with more than two dozen emperors seizing the throne in a power struggle, murdering their political enemies, and then being assassinated themselves.

Some emperors, like Silbannacus, Quintillus, and Saloninus, literally sat on the throne for a matter of days before being killed.

The government was extremely unstable, and notoriously corrupt. They rigged elections. They sent Praetorian guards to harass and intimidate their opponents. And they sewed social conflict so that Romans turned on one another.

“We are corrupted by prosperity. And when the state is corrupt, then the laws are most multiplied.”

Tacitus

In the meantime, the Roman economy was collapsing. Inflation became so rampant that Diocletian infamously had to implement extreme price controls, and then threaten to kill anyone who didn’t follow them.

They also lost control of their borders, as countless barbarian tribes poured into the empire and squatted on Roman lands.

The barbarian migration eventually turned into full-blown invasions and military conflict, and the Roman military lost a number of major battles.

In 251 AD, for example, Rome suffered a crushing defeat by the invading Goths at the Battle of Abritus. The Goths decimated three Roman legions, killed the emperor, and stole TONS of gold.

Even the lowest peasant was able to figure it out: dominant superpowers don’t lose battles.

They maintain secure borders. They have strong currencies. They don’t blow through six leaders in a single year. They aren’t in a constant state of social revolution. And they aren’t bankrupt.

We could easily apply the same logic today.

And this is especially true after last week’s watershed moment in which the US national debt reached $30 trillion for the first time.

It’s hardly controversial to assert that dominate superpowers don’t accumulate $30 trillion in debt (which, by the way, is 25% larger than the entire US economy).

But it’s not just the debt. It’s so much more.

Dominant superpowers don’t surrender tens of billions of dollars of military equipment to their sworn enemy, and then fly away with local civilians clinging to the side of their aircraft.

Dominant superpowers don’t abandon their own citizens abroad.

Dominant superpowers don’t engineer historically high inflation… and then ignore it. Nor do they embrace socialism, i.e. the literal opposite of the capitalist economic system that created so much wealth and power to begin with.

Dominant superpowers don’t send their government agents to harass innocent citizens, or tell parents they have no say in the education of their children.

Dominant superpowers don’t suspend their Constitutions because of a virus. They don’t give people incentives to NOT work. They don’t constantly make it difficult for small businesses to succeed.

Dominant superpowers don’t deliberately reduce their military’s physical fitness standards in the name of diversity and inclusion. They don’t prioritize “equity” over national security. And they certainly don’t fire experienced intelligence operatives because of individual medical decisions.

Dominant superpowers don’t placate their adversaries and bow to their demands. They aren’t afraid to offend their rivals.

Dominant superpowers don’t create incentives for countless people to illegally cross the border and go live under a bridge.

And above all else, dominant superpowers are able to deal with challenges.

Yes, there’s always been conflict and disagreement. But dominant superpowers have stable, effective governments who can do what is necessary to solve problems. And they have societies whose people can coexist peacefully without being at each others’ throats all the time.

It might not be pleasant to think about, but these are all true statements about the United States. And like Rome, they are all obvious signs of decline. Simply put, the US is no longer the dominant superpower.

“The gods are on the side of the stronger”

Tacitus, “Histories”

Before we begin, we need to get into the mood.

And what could possibly put us into the mood but the Russian National Anthem, led by none other than Vlady himself.

Please, Товарищ, join me in either Russian or English. As Russian Insight warns, “Goosebumps Guaranteed.”

Wasn’t that fun?

Ok, let’s now see what Michael Every of Rabobank has to say of the coming economic war with our Russian “partners”.

Every: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-russia-prepared-declare-economic-war-west-inflicting-huge-economic-pain

Rabobank: Russia Is Prepared To Declare Economic War On The West, Inflicting “Huge Economic Pain”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Choosing wallpaper during the Blitz

There seems no way to bridge the fundamental differences in interpretations of the 1975 Helsinki European security agreement that says all states are sovereign and free to decide which defence alliance they want to join, and that no state should join an alliance seen as a threat by another. Which clause has primacy? The former, if you view NATO as defensive. The latter, if you see NATO as offensive.

As in the 1920s/30s, you also get passionate, polarized views on who is to blame. There are those who see Putin as Hitler and Ukraine as the Sudetenland – or Poland. There are those who see the ‘US Deep State’ driving things. And both can be true, which just makes matters worse.

Meanwhile, the scandal-plagued UK government (this time it is about prosecco, not cake) and its Polish and Ukrainian counterparts are to sign a trilateral defence treaty. Of course, such defense pacts are not new – back in September 1996 the same trio were saying the same thing. Yet the UK guaranteeing not just Ukraine’s but Poland’s border…are history, and the UK government, slurring old lyrics, rhyming or repeating themselves?

There is also pressure building in the Balkans: Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia –maybe even EU member Bulgaria– are all in a pot Russia is helping to stir. Its Foreign Minister just stated he does not accept that Montenegro and North Macedonia should be NATO members when they already are.

Yet NATO member Hungary’s PM just visited Moscow, and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs oozed: “Hungary has invariably confirmed its reputation as a reliable partner in the transit of Russian fuels. Naturally, we are willing to build up mutually advantageous cooperation in this area.” In other words, don’t expect any EU energy sanctions if Budapest has a veto? Yet that means the West has no pressure point against Russia except the military, where it is outgunned.

Meanwhile, Russia just banned the export of ammonium nitrate for two months (while Lithuania has fully blocked the rail shipment of potash from Belarus). The potential upside impact on fertilizer prices in Europe should be obvious. So should the fact that Russia clearly understands the geopolitical and geoeconomic pressure points that *it* controls. They can see the US does not want to raise rates but has to. They can also see that they can force inflation far higher, inflicting huge economic pain, even if they take some too. That is how economic wars work. Are we ready to fight one, or are we going to redraw borders to avoid one?

The scale of what is happening over markets’ heads –and the naval-gazing drivel on Bloomberg this morning– is summarized by former Portuguese politician Bruno Maçães in a Time magazine article, “What Happens Next in Ukraine Could Change Europe Forever”. In it, he notes: “The Russian television anchor Dmitry Kiselyov, known as a reliable Kremlin mouthpiece, explained on air during the past weekend that the current crisis is not about Ukraine: ‘The scale is much bigger.’” I concur: which is why I called it a metacrisis.

Maçães adds another line I have been stressing since 2017: “We no longer live in the old liberal order where rules must be enforced, and violators punished. We live in a new order where power must be balanced with power.” And the EU has no such power! If only its preparations had been made as far back as 2017 when ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’ came out.

As such, Maçães argues “The US must reflect on whether it can afford to reduce its presence in Europe before a proper counterweight to Russia has been created in Brussels. The pivot to Asia may need to wait for a solution to the European crisis. As for Europeans, they need to quickly prepare themselves for a new world, where their sovereignty and security may well be at stake.” Except the dynamic in the US is not moving in that direction. Asia is the priority, regardless.

He continues: “The existing order is starting to buckle, and Washington needs to decide how best to replace it with new arrangements. Does it prefer to reach a grand bargain with Moscow whereby the two powers divide Europe among themselves? Or does it prefer to encourage and support the development of a new European pole capable of balancing Russian power?” He is literally talking about a new partition of Europe into spheres of interest: and European markets are looking at what the ECB will do on Thursday. I can tell you ECB rates are unlikely to rise ahead –what’s new there?– but I can’t tell you what the geography and political architecture of the EU where you borrow that money will look like in 5 years. Keeping a focus just on the screens at times like this is akin to happily choosing new wallpaper during the London Blitz.

Maçães concludes: “To me the choice seems an obvious one, but what is frustrating about the current crisis is how we keep avoiding the larger questions of political order. By hesitating we allow others to assume the role of reformers and innovators. Eurasia, the supercontinent, is being reshaped before our eyes.” Yes – as the EU is talking about its usual soft, cuddly 2005-vintage talking points. But don’t worry – the Conference on the Future of Europe is waiting for your input! The website hasn’t added Russian as a language option yet.

We do perhaps see key movement from Germany – not against Russia, but China. It is reported Chancellor Scholz is to officially prioritize engagement with democratic partners in the Indo-Pacific instead of China, will travel to Japan to hold consultations, and fully supports Lithuania against Chinese coercion; hawkish Foreign Minister Baerbock will be allowed to champion initiatives against China; and German diplomats in the Indo-Pacific are “being encouraged to push the envelope and resist old habits to self-censor” when developing new China strategies. Obviously, this will greatly exacerbate EU-China economic tensions – but there is no military component. So, are these steps a quid pro quo to try to ensure the US stays committed to the EU’s defence, rather than –as Maçães says– carving it up with Russia and looking to Asia?

Perhaps. Yet if you have decided to turn your economy into a weapon, as the EU thinks it has, then using it involves taking hits: armies take damage in war – economies take damage during economic wars. That is how economic wars work. The US is most unlikely to change its mind on strategic options vis-à-vis Asia unless the EU is prepared to take pain on the sanctions front to send Russia a message. Even then, what to do about Hungary, should consensus be required?

Let’s all go and look at wallpaper patterns instead, why not?

Well, now, wasn’t that on point?

So, how else might we wrap that one up but Sean Connery’s famous speech from “The Hunt for Red October”.

Many of us know it by heart.

Sing it!!!!

Russian Cyrillic	Russian Romanization	English translation
Россия — священная наша держава, Россия — любимая наша страна. Могучая воля, великая слава – Твоё достоянье на все времена! Припев: Славься, Отечество наше свободное, Братских народов союз вековой, Предками данная мудрость народная! Славься, страна! Мы гордимся тобой! От южных морей до полярного края Раскинулись наши леса и поля. Одна ты на свете! Одна ты такая – Хранимая Богом родная земля! Припев Широкий простор для мечты и для жизни Грядущие нам открывают года. Нам силу даёт наша верность Отчизне. Так было, так есть и так будет всегда! Припев	Rossiya — svyashchennaya nasha derzhava, Rossiya — lyubimaya nasha strana. Moguchaya volya, velikaya slava – Tvoyo dostoyanye na vse vremena! Pripev: Slav’sya, Otechestvo nashe svobodnoye, Bratskih narodov soyuz vekovoy, Predkami dannaya mudrost’ narodnaya! Slav’sya, strana! My gordimsya toboy! Ot yuzhnyh morey do polyarnogo kraya Raskinulis’ nashi lesa i polya. Odna ty na svete! Odna ty takaya – Hranimaya Bogom rodnaya zemlya! Pripev Shirokiy prostor dlya mechty i dlya zhizni Gryadushchiye nam otkryvayut goda. Nam silu dayot nasha vernost’ Otchizne. Tak bylo, tak yest’ i tak budet vsegda! Pripev	Russia is our sacred state, Russia is our beloved country. A mighty will, great glory – Your dignity for all time! Chorus: Be glorified, our free Fatherland, The age-old union of fraternal peoples, Ancestor-given wisdom of the people! Be glorified, country! We are proud of you! From the southern seas to the polar edge Our forests and fields are spread out. You are the only one in the world! You are the only one – the native land so kept by God! Chorus A wide scope for dreams and for life The coming years open to us. We are given strength by our fidelity to the Fatherland. So it was, so it is and it will always be so! Chorus

Biden plays wag the dog. So, maybe it’s time for a few updates to a famous rag.

Well come on all of you big strong men, Corrupt Joe Biden demands your help again,

He got himself into ANOTHER jam, defending SOMEONE ELSE’s border in Ukraine-stan,

So drop your masks, get jabbed, and pick up a gun, we’re gonna have a whole lotta fun

And its 1, 2,3 what are we fighting for? Don’t ask me I don’t give a damn, the next stop is Ukraine-stan,

And its 5, 6,7 open up the pearly gates, well there ain’t no time to wonder why, WHOOPEE we’re all gonna die.

Well, come on Wall Street don’t be slow, why man this is war go-go-go,

There’s plenty good money to be made, and Hunter Biden’s ready to trade

While in Air Force One up in the sky, 10% goes to The Big Guy.

And its 1, 2,3 what are we fighting for? Don’t ask me I don’t give a damn, the next stop is Ukraine-stan,

And its 5, 6,7 open up the pearly gates, well there ain’t no time to wonder why, WHOOPEE we’re all gonna die

Well come on generals let’s move fast, your big chance has come at last,

Gotta go out and get those reds, 30 years after the Cold War’s end.

But unlike Afghanistan and also Iraq, Russians boys are much better shots.

Or, if you prefer, here’s the original from Country Joe himself.

Sounds about the same.

Cui bono?

In a world of Sock Puppets, who makes Neil speak? And Joni Mitchell and Nils Lofgren?

Saagar Enjeti suggests “Hedge Funds for Neil”:

“You see a recent trend in the music business in that iconic artists such a Neil Young sell their catalogs to big-money groups who then reap the profits in perpetuity. Young actually sold his catalog in Jan. 2021 to a company called Hipgnosis. Now Hipgnosis is a $1 billion company that recently announced an ownership agreement with Blackstone.”

Enjeti said Blackstone is focused on taking over single-family housing and turning America into a nation of renters, but it also has interests everywhere.

“Blackstone, BlackRock and these big private equity giants are ruthless in their pursuit of profits and they’re savvy political players who know how to play the game,” Enjeti said. “They have all sorts of ties to the pharmaceutical industry, including announcing the former CEO and chairman of Pfizer would be joining Blackstone as a senior advisor.”

“Do you really think it’s a coincidence that days after Neil Young’s music was pulled off of Spotify he debuts a 4-month free trial to any person who wants to sign up for Amazon music — who has struggled to gain market share and has long-standing connections with all of the big money people in the game?” Enjeti asked.

Of course – Emperor Jeff.

“I have foreseen it.”

Hey!!

Yeah, you, I’m talking to you! Get over here!

Nice business you got here.

Would be a real shame if *something* happened to it.

Or you find your career prematurely “terminated.”

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Hate to see something unfortunate happen.

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