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Tactical Picture The Russian Army appears to be employing an encirclement strategy intended to isolate and degrade Ukrainian brigades in major cities – rather than incurring the casualties (military and civilian) from direct assault on urban areas. This move eliminates the bulk of the Ukrainian Army but for ~2 brigades in metro Kiev and scatteredContinue reading “Donbass Pocket Closes”

Courtesy of niccolo.substack.com “Fuck it!” Russia’s Final Break With the West US-Russian joint tactical victory, European and Ukrainian defeat Celebrations have been taking place in the self-declared Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in what is almost universally recognized Ukraine. Having declared independence eight years ago, events have now forced Russia’s hand in which these twoContinue reading “Пришло время прощаться”

Wonder what this means for the price of food? Gro Intelligence says a 23% increase in the normalized cost of fertilizer. And fertilizer is ~20% of the cash cost of wheat before we even get to the demand curve reshape from sanctions. Do the math

Pozsar: “We Could Be Looking At The Early Stages Of A Classic Liquidity Crisis” Courtesy of ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pozsar-we-could-be-looking-early-stages-classic-liquidity-crisis Last week, some on Wall Street were quietly gloating when the “Lehman Weekend” consequences predicted by repo guru Zoltan Pozsar failed to materialize and central banks did not flood global markets with a torrent of liquidity, in aContinue reading ““Does going from AAA to junk trigger margin calls? You bet!””

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers asContinue reading “John Mearsheimer: the Invasion of Ukraine, the Insane Biden Double-down and Fighting to the Last Ukrainian”

Map courtesy of The Vineyard of the Saker http://thesaker.is/ Reproduced above is the Saker’s summary of the Ukraine theater as seen from the Russian side as of 11 PM local, March 3, 2022. It is notable that for all the PsyOp news coverage in Western media since Russia invaded, we never see a theater map.Continue reading ““The first casualty when war comes is truth””

Michael Every, Rabobank: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-you-cant-trade-geopolitics *You* can’t trade geopolitics We aren’t in WW3 yet – despite worries Russia, not bad weather, just took down a Romanian military helicopter and jet – but this crisis is answering a question I have long pondered: how would our 24/7 clickbait, read-no-history, central-bank-liquidity-addled, algo-driven markets have traded WW2? The answer: stupidly. EveryContinue reading ““You Can’t Trade Geopolitics””

The map above is from The Skar. Note the black lines – they appear to be emergent threat axes for two double envelopments – one east of the Dnieper and a second well west of the Dnieper along a line anchored by Odessa and Kiev. The operations at Kiev are starting to appear to beContinue reading “The Davos War: “Spooks Start Civil Wars, Militaries End Them””

We also have the text for tonight’s State of the Union, courtesy of Simon Black of Sovereign Man March 1, 2022 My fellow Americans. Now that my approval ratings are roughly at the same level as my blood pressure, i.e. barely detectable, and my credibility is nonexistent, I thought I might actually try being honestContinue reading “My Fellow Jamaicans”

ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-global-banks-largest-exposures-russian-sanctions Following Zoltan Pozsar’s blueprint for how the US/UK/EU sanctions unveiled over the weekend could lead to problems in the “plumbing” of the global financial ecosystem, we have seen several cracks appear already. Dollar liquidity is drying up – and thus getting more costly – especially against the Euro… And while both US and European bankContinue reading “LTCM 2.0: Global Banks Most Exposed to US Sanctions”