GFS Precip Forecast Through Dec 18, 2020
Sic semper tyrannis
A banana republic.
Here’s W. Patrick Lang (Sic Semper Tyrannis):
“I will put this simply–Donald Trump is the duly elected President of the United States. Not Joe Biden. Thanks to a brave judge in Michigan, we now have indisputable, concrete evidence that the votes tabulated in any county or jurisdiction in the United States using electronic voting machines supplied by Dominion Voting Systems Corporation were tainted and the audit trail required to prove the integrity of those machines has been erased.
“You can (and you should) read the damning results of the forensic investigation of the Dominion Voting System machines used in Antrim County, Michigan. Here are the key facts from this investigation:
- The machine tabulated results reported on November 3, 2020 show there were 12,423 votes for President–with Joe Biden receiving 7,769 and Donald Trump garnering 4,509. The machine count for 3 November shows that only 56% of the registered voters cast a ballot for President. But a subsequent tabulation three weeks later (21 November) put Trump on top with 9,748 votes to Biden’s 5,960. The total votes for President increased by 3,526 and the turnout approached 73%.
- A staggering number of the ballots cast in Antrim required ADJUDICATION. The Dominion system classifies ballots into two categories, 1) normal ballots and 2) adjudicated ballots. Ballots sent to adjudication can be altered by administrators, and adjudication files can be moved between different Results Tally and Reporting (RTR) terminals with no audit trail of which administrator actually adjudicates (i.e. votes) the ballot batch.
- In Central Lake Township, for example, 81.96% of the 1,491 total ballots cast were adjudicated, which means that the decision about who received the vote was made by election personnel.
- All the ADJUDICATION logs for the November 2020 election cycle are missing while the files for previous years still exist. The lack of current records prevents any form of audit accountability.
- All server security logs prior to 11:03 pm on November 4, 2020 are missing. This means that all security logs for the day after the election, on election day, and prior to election day are gone. These logs contain domain controls, authentication failures, error codes, times users logged on and off, network connections to file servers between file accesses, internet connections, times, and data transfers.
- An unauthorized user unsuccessfully attempted to zero out election results on November 21, 2020.
- The Election Event Designer Log shows that Dominion Image Cast Precinct Cards were programmed with new ballot programming on 10/23/2020 and then again after the election on 11/05/2020. Specifically, the Central Lake Township tabulator tape totals were significantly altered by utilizing two different program versions (10/23/2020 and 11/05/2020), both of which were software changes during an election–a clear violation of election law.
- Antrim County used two software packages with the Dominion machines–one counted actual votes (i.e. tabulated) and the other CALCULATED ballot totals.
- The tabulator tape totals prove there were large numbers of votes switched from the November 3, 2020 tape to the November 6, 2020 tape. This was solely based on using different software versions of the operating program to calculate votes.
- A high “error rate” in the election software (in this case 68.05%) means an algorithm was used that weighted one candidate greater than another (for instance, weight a specific candidate at a 2/3 to approximately 1/3 ratio). The Antrim logs show that the RCV or Ranked Choice Voting Algorithm was enabled (see image below from the Dominion manual), which allows the user to apply a weighted numerical value to candidates and change the overall result.
- The Dominion voting machines used in Antrim County are used in 48 other Michigan counties, which calls into question the entire results of the Presidential election.
“This is not a conspiracy theory. The report presents and explains verifiable facts. The Dominion voting systems were used to manipulate the results reported for the Presidential election and other issues on the ballot in 2020 in Antrim County, Michigan. The hardware and software used in Antrim are not unique to that location. The Dominion system used in Michigan is used across the United States.
“The nature of the fraud is illustrated in the results reported in the Ellsworth School Board election in Antrim County. On November 3, 2020, the Dominion machines reported 663 votes (this was the calculated result). Two days later the actual votes were tabulated–only 3 people voted for two different candidates for a total of six votes. The disappearance of 657 votes is not “human error.” That is machine manipulation. It happened to the school board and it happened to Donald Trump.
“It is now imperative that Republican legislators and voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada demand a full forensic audit of the Dominion systems. This is widespread fraud and it is up to the people to demand that there be an accounting.”
Bearish Bill Blain
“The consequence of the Pandemic has been to deepen the existing distortions. The result has been the extraordinary apparent “resilience” of the stock and bond markets. It doesn’t feel remotely real:
“- We can see it in the widening disconnect between the real economy of defaults, job losses, food banks and crashing educational achievement versus massively inflated financial asset values in stock and bonds.
“- We can feel it in the way markets demand further stimulus and are being driven primarily by the massive amounts of money sloshing around financial markets (rather than the real economy).
“- Our sense of financial reality feels battered. Investors act on the basis of ongoing distortions fuelling prices are permanent and irreversible. Fundamentals are out the door. Its spawned and reinforced the dangerous belief that this time is somehow different and prices will go up for ever.”
“Markets are going up on retail and ill-informed bluster.
“- The consequences multiply: while everyone talks about how the Pandemic is accelerating the adoption of new technologies, capitalism is failing to discipline failing unprofitable zombie companies which linger too long and block new niches.
“- The consequences of an economy split between a very small number of haves and rising number of have nots, and rising inequality, has fuelled political populism – although Trump has come undone in the States he has massively destabilised the political consensus and rocked democracy for decades to come. Next year we have Germany and France, either of which could rock Europe.
“- The reality next year won’t suddenly change. Stocks will likely remain massively inflated. Bond yields will remain frighteningly low with $18 Trillion of debt now trading at negative yields. Sentiment and expectations will be lifted by the improving vaccination news – but the fundamentals of markets versus the economy are unlikely to be addressed.
“My view is financial assets will remain fundamentally distorted and increasingly vulnerable to correction. I’m sticking with a healthy weight of gold and looking for alternatives.”
The Insurrection Act
Amidst the leftist insurrections that exploded on cue 6 months ago, President Trump observed:
“If a city or state refuses to take the actions necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.”
The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law (10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255; prior to 2016, 10 U.S.C. §§ 331–335; amended 2006, 2007) that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion.
The act provides a “statutory exception” to the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, which limits the use of military personnel under federal command for law enforcement purposes within the United States.
Before invoking the powers under the Act, 10 U.S.C. § 254 requires the President to first publish a proclamation ordering the insurgents to disperse. As part of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, these provisions are now codified as amended.
There are Constitutional exceptions to Posse Comitatus restrictions rooted in the President’s own constitutional authority. Defense Department guidelines describe “homeland defense” as a “constitutional exception” to Posse Comitatus restriction, meaning that measures necessary to guarantee National Security from external threats are not subject to the same limitations.
The Act has been invoked more than 30 times in our nation’s history.
The Epoch Times published an editorial today that observed:
“The degree and scale of voter fraud was unprecedented. In swing states, President Donald Trump had large leads on election night. Then, late at night counting was stopped, while election observers were ushered out. And then, huge, statistically impossible vote dumps occurred, giving Biden the lead.
“This pattern, which occurred only in the states where Biden had to reverse the results, and hadn’t occurred in previous elections, points to a coordinated effort to steal the election.
“This effort likely involved manipulation of the vote by Dominion Voting System, and various forms of ballot harvesting and election irregularities attested to in a thousand affidavits.
“There are reports—needing confirmation—of foreign influence helping to undermine our election.
“President Trump has referred to our election system as being under ‘coordinated assault and siege.'”
On September 17, 1861, Abraham Lincoln ordered the arrest and jailing of twenty-seven Maryland state legislators (one-third of the Maryland General Assembly) using Lincoln’s suspension of habeas corpus and in defiance of the US Supreme Court’s ex-parte Merryman ruling.
The Epoch Times advocates:
“Trump should use those powers as President to safeguard the future of our Republic and arrest those who have conspired to deprive people of their rights through election fraud. The Insurrection Act enables Trump to use the military to seize the key electoral evidence in contested states and deliver a transparent, accurate accounting of the vote.”
Interesting times.
Vitamin D and Covid
In a comment reported in The Lancet, Adrian R Martineau and Nita G Forouhi observe:
“The striking overlap between risk factors for severe COVID-19 and vitamin D deficiency, including obesity, older age, and Black or Asian ethnic origin, has led some researchers to hypothesise that vitamin D supplementation could hold promise as a preventive or therapeutic agent for COVID-19.”
…
“Two ecological studies have reported inverse correlations between national estimates
of vitamin D status and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in European countries.4,5 Lower circulating 25(OH)D concentrations have also been reported to associate with susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection6 and COVID-19 severity. Recently, we have shown that airway diseases are associated with dysregulated vitamin D metabolism, raising the possibility that vitamin D deficiency might arise as a consequence of pulmonary inflammation.”
After reviewing the literature and trials to date, they observe:
“Pending results of such trials, it would seem uncontroversial to enthusiastically promote efforts to achieve reference nutrient intakes of vitamin D, which range from 400 IU/day in the UK to 600–800 IU/day in the USA. These are predicated on benefits of vitamin D
for bone and muscle health, but there is a chance that their implementation might also reduce the impact of COVID-19 in populations where vitamin D deficiency
is prevalent; there is nothing to lose from their implementation, and potentially much to gain.”
Indeed
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213858720302680
Banana Republic News: Kamela warming up in the Bullpen
According to AP, subpoenaed for “…information related to more than two dozen entities, including Ukraine gas company Burisma, according to a person familiar with a Justice Department tax investigation of President-elect Joe Biden’s son.”
Reportedly includes tax evasion, money laundering, Chinese dealings, and racketeering.
Alleged co-conspirator Jim “The Bagman” also under investigation.
Which, of course, leaves us with “The Big Guy.”
Probe was launched in 2018 but, of course, had nothing to do in the 2019 coup atte… I mean, “impeachment”.
As Tyler Durden observes: “We’re sure Kamala Harris is genuinely concerned over the outcome of this investigation and hopes it doesn’t result in Joe Biden’s unceremonious exit from the teleprompter scene.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hunter-biden-subpoenaed-over-burisma-two-dozen-other-entities
The Supremes’ Texas Decision – Cole Porter had it decades ago
Here’s the text of the decision:
“Times have changed
And we’ve often rewound the clock
Since the Puritans got the shock
When they landed on Plymouth Rock
If today
Any shock they should try to stem
‘Stead of landing on Plymouth Rock
Plymouth Rock would land on them.”
Opinion written by Cole Porter.
Great footwork by the Supremes, don’t you think?
On Viral Loads for SARS-CoV-2
From Sender et al.
Reference:
Sender, R., et al. (2020). The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions in an infected. htpps://doi.org/10/1101/2020.11.16.20232009
Banana Republic: Allan West on the Texas Punt by the Supremes
“The Supreme Court, in tossing the Texas lawsuit that was joined by seventeen states and 106 US congressman, has decreed that a state can take unconstitutional actions and violate its own election law. Resulting in damaging effects on other states that abide by the law, while the guilty state suffers no consequences. This decision establishes a precedent that says states can violate the US constitution and not be held accountable. This decision will have far-reaching ramifications for the future of our constitutional republic. Perhaps law-abiding states should bond together and form a Union of states that will abide by the constitution.”
Perhaps indeed.
ENSO and Climate Temperature
There are a lot of ways physics can explain climate warming. But the best explanations are those that successfully backtest – where the physics can reliably hindcast the past from the present.
Two issues, in particular, plague the IPCC CMIPx model series: (1) cloud formation and (2) the role of el Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Dr. Roy Spencer: “Since El Nino produces global average warmth, and La Nina produces global average coolness, I have been using our 1D forcing feedback model of ocean temperatures (published by Spencer & Braswell, 2014) to examine how the historical record of ENSO variations can be included, by using the CERES satellite-observed co-variations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative flux with ENSO.”
Spencer’s one dimensional model of mid-latitude climate dynamics generates the requisite net radiative feedback parameter corresponding to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.91 degree C, matches the sea surface temperature (SST) observations during 1979-2020, and corresponds to IPCC HadSST1 or HadSST4 data.
As Dr. Spencer explains:
“ENSO can then be turned off in the model to see how it affects our interpretation of (and causes of) temperature trends over various time periods. Or, one can examine the affect of assuming some level of non-equilibrium of the climate system at the model initialization time.
“If nothing else, the results in Fig. 3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic forcings became significant, and how those variations affected temperature trends on various time scales. For if those naturally-induced temperature trend variations existed before, then they still exist today.”
So which is the dominant driver of climate – natural variation or anthropogenic GHG emissions?
Econophysics2020 