“You Met Me at a Very Strange Time in My Life”

Fight Club | 20th Century Studios

Tyler Durden: “We are consumers. We’re the by-products of a lifestyle obsession.”

Tyler had a point. How’s that working out for you? Being clever. Obsessing about lifestyle.

Well, Chris Hamilton has a point of view as we sit on the edge of plutocracy’s apparent recapture of the US executive branch:

“To begin, I’ll divide the world into two roughly equal groups, consumers and non-consumers, using the World Bank gross national income per capita.

“‘Consumers’ are half the worlds population, have average income per capita above $4,045…enjoy 80%+ of the income, savings, access to credit and likewise consume 80%+ of the worlds exported commodities and 80%+ of the worlds energy. 

…

“‘Low or Non-consumers’, the other half of the worlds population, have average income per capita of a few hundred dollars to $4044…earn less than 20% of world income, savings, access to credit and consume less than 20% of all exported commodities and burn less than 20% of global energy. They have average income of about $1,200 a year…10x less per person among non-consumers than the average ‘consumer'”

A Pareto distribution.

Or, if you prefer, my old professor, Murray Rothbard: “The necessary result…of the unequal fiscal action of the government is to divide the community into two great classes…tax-payers and tax-consumers.”

Of course, Rothbard was merely quoting Calhoun who said: “… it must necessarily follow, that some one portion of the community must pay in taxes more than it receives back in disbursements; while another receives in disbursements more than it pays in taxes… The necessary result, then, of the unequal fiscal action of the government is, to divide the community into two great classes; one consisting of those who, in reality, pay the taxes, and, of course, bear exclusively the burthen of supporting the government; and the other, of those who are the recipients of their proceeds, through disbursements, and who are, in fact, supported by the government; or, in fewer words, to divide it into tax-payers and tax-consumers.” (J. Calhoun, Disquisition on Government (1848)):

Rothbard: “For taxation, Calhoun’s inspired division of society into taxpayers and tax-consumers is applied. Inflation is shown to be binary intervention because it consists of fraudulent issuance of ‘counterfeit’ warehouse receipts.” (M. Rothbard, Man, Economy, and State: A Treatise on Economic Principles (1962))

Back to Chris in the present:

“For those paying attention, inflation (as represented by the Federal Reserve set Federal Funds Rate) has been declining nearly in tandem with the declining consumer nation births, and global debt has blasted off inversely…with the impact of pulling demand forward against a future with organically declining demand. The question here, how would an ever smaller future of consumers pay off or outgrow ever more debt??? [Comment – the old fashioned way states have dealt with this problem: asset inflation and wealth debasement]

“Narrowing in on high income nation births versus low income nation births…Not hard to see where this is going.

“Given 30 years of declining consumer nation births, no surprise the childbearing population among consumer nations is now in decline versus ongoing growth in the low consumer nations childbearing population.”

Murray Rothbard: “The State says that citizens may not take from another by force and against his will that which belongs to another. And yet the State…does just that.”

Tyler Durden: “Listen up, maggots. You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You’re the same decaying organic matter as everything else.”

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/12/you-met-me-at-very-strange-time-in-my.html

What Risk?

Chris Hamilton (Econimica.com) is known for his insightful statistical analysis of the economy. And, last week, Chris did a great job poking through the CoV data in response to Oregon’s lockdown order.

But, first, the order.

Last week State Potentate Kate Brown issued the following statement:  “As we near 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in Oregon, and with hospitals and health care workers stretched to their limits, there is no doubt that COVID-19 continues to pose a public health threa. These are the darkest days in the pandemic”.

“Darkest days.” OK, that’s a pretty dramatic statement.

Now for Chris and Oregon public health data.

The graph on the top shows current year death rate following the long-term trend. Certainly the “darkest days” are not obvious in that plot.

OK, so maybe it’s the hospitalization rate – you know the usual “stretched to their limit” comment.

Personally, I don’t know what “stretched to the limit” means.

Oregon’s Department of Health and Human Services (updated last 12/15, link HHS) reports Oregon is among the states with a below average percentage of Covid patients in the hospitals (10.6% of beds occupied by Covid patients), among normal total hospital utilization (75% of available beds are filled), and among slightly elevated ICU utilization (about 75% of ICU beds are occupied).

Anyway, here’s Chris: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/12/response-to-coronavirus-in-oregon-has.html

Random Walk Down Wall Street

Jeremy Grantham (GMO):

“My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth ‘real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career.  The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one.”

Ask any sailor when you should reef sails: “the FIRST time it crosses your mind.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/granthams-real-mccoy-bubble-world-gone-mad

The Myth of Asymptomatic Spread

Here’s “The Science”:

“The screening of the 9,865,404 participants without a history of COVID-19 found no newly confirmed COVID-19 cases, and identified 300 asymptomatic positive cases with a detection rate of 0.303 (95% CI 0.270–0.339)/10,000. The median age-stratified Ct-values of the asymptomatic cases were shown in Supplementary Table 1. Of the 300 asymptomatic positive cases, two cases came from one family and another two were from another family. There were no previously confirmed COVID-19 patients in these two families. A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases were traced, and they all tested negative for the COVID-19. There were 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 cases who participated in the screening. Of the 34,424 participants with a history of COVID-19, 107 tested positive again, giving a repositive rate of 0.310% (95% CI 0.423–0.574%).” Cao et al., 2020

On June 7, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, told a press conference that from the known research, asymptomatic spread was “very rare.” “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual.” She added for emphasis: “It’s very rare.”

So, given “The Science!”, remind me again why we have these lockdowns.

References

Cao, S., Gan, Y., Wang, C., Bachmann, M., Wei, S., Gong, J., … Lu, Z. (2020). Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China. Nature Communications, 11(1), 5917. Available at Nature website: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Tucker, J. (2020, November 22). Asymptomatic spread revisited. Retrieved December 20, 2020, from Aier.org website: https://www.aier.org/article/asymptomatic-spread-revisited/

Pepe Escobar: When Deplorables Become Ungovernables

Concord Bridge

By the rude bridge that arched the flood,
Their flag to April’s breeze unfurled,
Here once the embattled farmers stood,
And fired the shot heard round the world.

“Concord Bridge,” Ralph Waldo Emerson

That was then.

Today, Pepe Escobar opines on the ungovernable fragments that are the “United?” States and what it means for the rest of the world:

“The hyper-modern Pacific-Atlantic nodes congregate high-tech and finance, profit from Pentagon techno-breakthroughs and benefit from the ‘America rules the waves’ ethos that guarantees the global primacy of the U.S. dollar.

“The rest of America is largely considered by the Pacific-Atlantic as just a collection of flyover states: the South – which regards itself as the real, authentic America; and the Midwest, largely disciplined and quite practical-minded, squeezed ideologically between the littoral powerhouses and the South.

“Superstructure, though, is key: no matter what happens, whatever the fractures, this remains an Empire, where only a tiny elite, a de facto plutocratic oligarchy, rules.”

Take in Pepe and see what started at Concord Bridge evolved into.

When Deplorables Become Ungovernables

Climate Change – Grand Solar Minimum Hits

Tens of millions of Americans in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states were blanketed with more snow in one setting than the 2019-2020 season. 

This isn’t just an isolated event – record snowfall and cold is increasingly evident throughout the world as the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) takes shape ending the temperature ramp-up begun with the end of the little ice age.

The GSM is a low frequency oscillation of the baseline solar magnetic field attenuating total solar irradiance (TSI) and baseline terrestrial temperature. The baseline oscillations present a period of 2100-2200 years. Similar oscillations detected in carbon 14C isotope abundances and with wavelet analysis of solar irradiance are also evident.

Zharkova et al, 2019 reports solar inertial motion (SIM) can drive these millennial variations because of a change of the distance between the Sun and Earth.

Double dynamo actions inside the Sun amplify solar irradiance variations and predict two grand solar minima: one in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415. Such minima correspond with temperature declines (see Figure 7, Zhaorkova, 2019).

Historically, we see TSI rising over the past few hundred years which is reflected in rising climate temperatures.

Looking ahead as the GSM unfolds, we should be mindful that the last one resulted in a 1C decline in lower troposphere temperature.

If that experience is repeated, we can expect the GSM we are now entering and scheduled to run through 2053 could unwind most of the 1.4C gain since 1700.

Reference

Valentina, Zharkova, Simon, Shepher, and Elena Popova (2019), “Millennial solar irradiance forcing (Hallstatt’s cycle) in the terrestrial temperature”, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 2020, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020EGUGA..2211107Z},

Zharkova, V. (2020). Solar activity, solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature. arXiv: Solar and Stellar Astrophysics.

Feet of Snow Forecast to Pound the Northeast Midweek, with the West on track for a Christmas Burial

Drop 50 – Fire for Effect

The U.S. Supreme Court is pictured in Washington on Feb. 1, 2020. (Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images)

“This Court should not turn a blind eye to unconstitutional election laws that permit massive vote dilution and have a significant impact on election outcomes, as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did”

Read the petition below

Click to access 20201211142442551_Petition%20for%20Writ%20of%20Certiorari%20FINAL.pdf

Will the Supremes gutlessly duck again?

Well, they decided Obamacare was legal because the fees were a “tax.”

Banana republic justice.

Basic Fraud Statistics

A Clark County election worker checks a voting machine among others that are boxed up at the Clark County Election Department in Las Vegas, Nev., on Nov. 6. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

“A man who’s made a living developing fraud detection algorithms has discovered a curious phenomenon: Counties that started using Dominion Voting Systems machines have on average moved by 2 to 3 points to the Democrat presidential candidate from the Republican compared to counties that didn’t adopt the machines.

“The difference persisted even after he controlled for a number of factors, including county population and various demographic characteristics.”

An audit would be nice.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/fraud-analyst-flags-pro-biden-shift-in-counties-that-used-dominion_3619566.html