The Mathematics Against Lockdowns

In a bioRxiv preprint first posted October 21, 2020 (and later published in Molecular Biology and Evolution), Dellacour et al. (2020) report their studies of the spatial density of available SARS-CoV-2 genomes mapped in the Belgium epidemic.

Their phylodynamic analysis demonstrates real-time dispersion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages.

Among other things, their spatially-explicit phylogeographic analyses highlight that the national lockdown had a relatively low impact on both the lineage dispersal velocity and long-distance dispersal events within Belgium.

Simply put, the Belgian lockdowns show no statistical evidence of materially impacting pandemic dispersion.

Reference

Simon Dellicour, Keith Durkin, Samuel L. Hong, Bert Vanmechelen, Joan Martí-Carreras, Mandev S. Gill, Cécile Meex, Sébastien Bontems, Emmanuel André, Marius Gilbert, Conor Walker, Nicola De Maio, Nuno R. Faria, James Hadfield, Marie-Pierre Hayette, Vincent Bours, Tony Wawina-Bokalanga, Maria Artesi, Guy Baele, Piet Maes (2020) A phylodynamic workflow to rapidly gain insights into the dispersal history and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages bioRxiv 2020.05.05.078758; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.05.078758

Now published in Molecular Biology and Evolution doi: 10.1093/molbev/msaa284

Hack

In June, Attorney General Bill Barr sat for an interview in CNN’s Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer and predicted widespread fraud with mail in voting. He said: “People trying to change the rules to this, to this methodology – which, as a matter of logic, is very open to fraud and coercion – is reckless and dangerous and people are playing with fire.”

At the time, Barr was the nation’s top law enforcement officer with an obligation to prevent election fraud under a bevy of federal statutes.

And he did … nothing.

Worse than that – read Tom Farnan’s piece below.

The Banality of Bill Barr.

Deer in the Headlights

Biden's vice presidential pick won't matter during the 2020 campaign - Business Insider

“Most Americans think there was wholesale fraud in the election. Almost all of Trump’s voters think the election was stolen. How can The Pretender rule when close to half the people think he’s illegitimate? If he gets the Epstein treatment and Willy Brown’s concubine is installed, how can the political class keep pretending America is a democracy? That seems unlikely.

“Given all the problems the ruling class of the American Empire created in 2020, it is natural to assume 2021 must be better. The thing is, the bumbling fools who created this mess are still in charge, The odds of them working through these problems without creating more trouble are very low. It is entirely possible that a year from now, people will look fondly back on 2020 as an age of relative calm.”

Indeed. Z-Man nails it.

Now What?

Asset Bubble Dynamics

Popping Bubbles

J. Wolinsky:

“Based on the dot.com experience, popping bubbles are often associated with the complete collapse of companies like eToys, Pets.com or Webvan, but that is as much the exception as the rule. It is equally common that following an immense and unsustainable rise in stock price, the bubble pops without much change in the operations and profitability of the company. Instead, the bubble is based on the development of a wildly enthusiastic prediction of the company’s future and is popped by the recognition that the forecasts were wildly enthusiastic. All of this can happen without much change in ongoing operations. The best way to illustrate what can happen is with some examples.”

Kyriazis et. al (2020) review the asset bubble literature for cryptocurrency and apply the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) methodologies to the pricing data. They conclude from the academic research Bitcoin appears to have been in a bubble-phase since June 2015, while Ethereum, NEM, Stellar, Ripple, Litecoin and Dash present evidence of bubble-like characteristics since September 2015.

Returning to Wolinsky, individual bubble dynamics do not appear associated with “mass extinction” events.

References:

Kyriazis, N., Papadamou, S., & Corbet, S. (2020). A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices. Research in International Business and Finance, 54(101254), 101254.

jwolinsky. (n.d.). Popping Bubbles. Retrieved December 28, 2020, from Slopeofhope.com website: https://slopeofhope.com/2020/12/popping-bubbles.ht

Blessed be the Quants for they shall inherit the Earth

Fundraiser by Bobby Piton : Just In Case: Audit the Vote
Mathematician Bobby Piton Finds More Than 500,000 Unique Last Names in Pennsylvania: ‘Sophisticated State Actor Was Able to Optimize Desired Outcome’

To be clear, I have not reviewed his analysis – YET. But I did download his analysis of Arizona fraud by going to his firm’s website and providing contact details: https://www.preactiveinvestments.com/

Per Gateway Pundit:

“Piton revealed this weekend that he examined just over 9 million records in Pennsylvania and has identified 521,879 unique last names.

“In other words, these people have no parents, siblings, aunts, uncles or cousins who share the same last name (phantom voters).”

Between 695,000 to 958,000 voters voted and then vanished out of Pennsylvania according to his analysis.

The good news – he has a CFA. The bad news – he has an MBA and not an MS or PhD in a quant science. But, some MBAs – usually the ones with a CFA – are competent in statistical analysis.

So, we shall see.

“A Personal Financial Disaster”

Quite a year:

  • Socialist governments have slaughtered small businesses by the thousands, with more than 70 million new claims for unemployment benefits have been filed since the COVID pandemic first started.
  • A brutal, government-mandated economic depression.
  • A Federal government carrying over $27 trillion in debt.
  • A OnePoll survey reports 55% of Americans consider 2020 a “personal financial disaster.”
  • Among employed respondents (59% in total), seven in 10 say they need a raise at their job in order to make ends meet. Sixty-two percent plan on taking on a second job in 2021 to meet their financial goals next year.

Before the latest “stimulus” on the Congressional table, inflation was evident in food and shelter prices as the M2 rose exponentially. Injecting $900 billion more constituted an extraordinary shock.

Michael Snyder:

“In the short-term, ‘stimulus payments’ from the federal government will definitely help tens of millions of suffering Americans.

“But of course every additional dollar that our government borrows and spends just makes our long-term problems even worse.

“A national economic meltdown has begun, and our politicians will try lots of things to mitigate the damage, but all of their “solutions” will only help temporarily.

“This is going to be an exceedingly dark chapter for America, but most Americans still do not understand the true nature of the crisis that is now unfolding all around us.”

For 55 Percent Of Americans, 2020 Has Been “A Personal Financial Disaster”

Andaman and Nicobar – Indian Force Multiplier

Confronted by a growing presence by the PLA Navy, the Indian Navy launched a new airbase in the strategically located Andaman and Nicobar islands in 2019. The new base will monitor PLA Navy activity in the region.

The Andaman Sea can become the next flashpoint of Sino-Indian maritime rivalry in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) given Beijing’s interest in the region and continued operations in Indian waters without permission.

Just last month, the Indian Navy test-fired a new supersonic anti-ship missile, the BrahMos class, which is reportedly the world`s fastest operational system in its class.

Indian Navy test-fires anti-ship version of BrahMos supersonic cruise in Andaman Nicobar Islands

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/dec/01/anti-ship-version-of-supersonic-cruise-missile-testfired-from-andaman-nicobar-islands-2230348.html

Sublease inventory in top US markets now exceeding levels of the Dot Com bust and the Great Financial Crisis.

Office spaces could be down 10 to 15% even after the economy recovers, adding that rents in top markets such as New York and San Francisco will continue to experience declines in 2021. 

CRE crisis unfolding.

Let me guess what follows – “bailouts ahead.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/companies-dump-office-space-inventory-swells