Doomberg on the EU’s Carbon Credits: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-banana-worth-squeezing?r=9ozk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email “To me, left unchecked, the price of carbon goes to infinity.” – Lawson Steele On Friday, October 24, 2008, Volkswagen’s (VW) stock closed at EUR 210 per share, down 50% over the prior two weeks. Like many manufacturing companies, VW was reeling from the global financial crisis. BecauseContinue reading “The Market Clearing Price for a National Suicide Pact”
Category Archives: Risk
Supply Chain Systemic Risk
James Rickards explains the obvious: https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-supply-chain-collapse/ The Great Supply Chain Collapse What’s at the root of the supply chain breakdown? That’s a critical question but the answer is almost irrelevant. The supply chain is a complex dynamic system of immense scale. It is of a complexity comparable to the climate as a system. This meansContinue reading “Supply Chain Systemic Risk”
Judgment Day for Evergrande
Sarah Connor (Terminator 2): “The Survivors of the nuclear holocaust called the war Judgement Day. They lived only to face a new nightmare: the way against the machines.” ZeroHedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evegrande-default-inevitable-sp-warns-chinese-developer-misses-dollar-bond-payments Evergrande Default Is “Inevitable” – S&P Warns As Chinese Developer Misses Dollar Bond Payments Having sold its Gulfstream Jets, dumped assets (at fire-sale prices), and seenContinue reading “Judgment Day for Evergrande”
“Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-500-futures-had-bad-week-worse-lies-ahead S&P 500 Futures Had a Bad Week, Worse Lies Ahead By Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst S&P 500 futures have a distinctly bearish tone after a week of whiplash trading, which began with the post-Thanksgiving Day meltdown. Though it hasn’t been a one-way street lower, intraday bounces for the contract have been fadingContinue reading ““Six-one going down, Six-one going down. Hold on!””
Less is More
Chris Hamilton of Econimica: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2021/11/housing-employment-inflation-and-2022.html Housing, Employment, Inflation, and 2022 Some times saying less can say more. Given that, I’m going to offer four variables relating to housing and hopefully let them and their relationships do the talking. 1- US median home price versus total US employees. 1970 through 2021 (YE est.). Since 2019: —HomeContinue reading “Less is More”
House of Pain
Tim Knight: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/11/burning-down-the-house-2.html Burning Down the House One of today’s train wrecks is Zillow (symbol Z) which I only found out recently decided that no one knew more about real estate data than they did, so they would become the world’s biggest house-flippers. Well, that’s not working out so great. It would be like takingContinue reading “House of Pain”
Black Monday: October 19, 1987
Nothing was ever the same after that day. From here, the Fed beginning a 34 year long suppression of interest rates at a level never seen before. Global Macro Monitor tells the tale: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/18/black-monday-1987-inside-the-u-s-treasury-2/ The following exchange took place between President Reagan and reporters after the market close on Black Monday, October 19, 1987. LeavingContinue reading “Black Monday: October 19, 1987”
Bonds Away!
The US bond market may be closed, but it was fully open in China, and locals took advantage of this fact to do one thing: sell. In the aftermath of our viral post “”Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play“, China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball onContinue reading “Bonds Away!”
Fed End Game or “Ending the Game of Fed”
US debt is currently ~$29 trillion – up ~$6 trillion in 2 years. All signs are Joe “10% for the Big Guy” intneds to double that rate this year even as supply chains are incapable of handing the modest economic growth to date. No surprise, the 14% inflation we’re seeing (yes – it’s 14%) isContinue reading “Fed End Game or “Ending the Game of Fed””
Coal for Christmas – China’s Supply Chain in Crisis
Human Terrain: https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/coal-for-christmas In mid-April 2021, I began receiving reports from sources in China and the United States that certain regions in China had begun to experience ongoing power disruptions at their warehouses and manufacturing facilities. Most notable of these was in south China’s Guangdong megaregion, where in June operations at the Taishan Nuclear PowerContinue reading “Coal for Christmas – China’s Supply Chain in Crisis”
Econophysics2020 