Less Global Warming Than IPCC Forecasts

“Science is real”. Hear that a lot, don’t you? Usually from people who aren’t scientists, never studied science in college or grad school, and probably too a science course in their lives. If you listen to “St. Greta”, mankind faces an imminent calamity. IPCC models forecast rapidly rising temperatures. But as the graph above demonstrates,Continue reading “Less Global Warming Than IPCC Forecasts”

The Limits of Climate Change due to GHG Sensitivity

Stefani (2021): The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as a proxy for solar activity, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19thContinue reading “The Limits of Climate Change due to GHG Sensitivity”

Solar Minimum, Weakened Jet Stream, and Extended Cold Ahead

7-day NOAA GFS forecast (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2021021612&fh=6 With a weakening solar cycle, no surprise we are seeing new cold records being set. And, this is what’s ahead – a slight warming trend late-decade to be followed by a return to cold temperatures.

Solar Activity and Climate Change

Courtillot, 2021 presents compelling evidence that planetary dynamics can materially influence the solar radiance. The sharpened decline of solar activity since 1990 is evident in sun spot data: Finding whether the planets of the solar system, and in particular the Jovian planets, have an influence on planet Earth is currently undergoing a revival and hasContinue reading “Solar Activity and Climate Change”

Climate Change – Solar Minimum Edition

Arctic air is set to hamer North America from the midwest to the northeast. The temperature anomalies are expected to drive temperatures some 20C below winter average, piling onto the declining climate temperature trends observed in recent months. Unprecdented amounts of snow is also expected. The weakened solar cycle translates to disrupted jet streams, revertingContinue reading “Climate Change – Solar Minimum Edition”

Variability as Climate Change Driver

Per Roy Spencer: Significantly, extrapolating to zero population density would give essentially no warming in the United States during 1973-2011. As we shall see (below) official temperature datasets say this period had a substantial warming trend, consistent with the warming in the highest population density locations. How can one explain this result other than, atContinue reading “Variability as Climate Change Driver”

Cooler Canada

The anthropogenic hypothesis holds the rising concentration of greenhouse gases is due to human activities alone with no contribution from natural sources. Natural sources can be the result of temperature change from non-greenhouse gas drivers and from natural sources (e.g., ocean, landmass). Atmospheric GHG has been growing steadily with no material change in slope forContinue reading “Cooler Canada”

Climate Change – Grand Solar Minimum Hits

Tens of millions of Americans in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states were blanketed with more snow in one setting than the 2019-2020 season.  This isn’t just an isolated event – record snowfall and cold is increasingly evident throughout the world as the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) takes shape ending the temperature ramp-up begun with the end ofContinue reading “Climate Change – Grand Solar Minimum Hits”

ENSO and Climate Temperature

There are a lot of ways physics can explain climate warming. But the best explanations are those that successfully backtest – where the physics can reliably hindcast the past from the present. Two issues, in particular, plague the IPCC CMIPx model series: (1) cloud formation and (2) the role of el Nino and the SouthernContinue reading “ENSO and Climate Temperature”