Pretty much as predicted over the past 5 years, we are seeing lower troposphere temperatures turning south and solar activity declines. The plot above presents April 2021 data reported from AMSU-B radiometers aboard NOAA satellites. April 2021 dipped -0.05C below the 1991-2000 average. AMSU-A + AMSU-B have flown together on the 3 NOAA KLM satellites:Continue reading “Solar Minimum Cooling Accelerates”
Category Archives: Atmospheric, Climate, and Oceanography
Less Global Warming Than IPCC Forecasts
“Science is real”. Hear that a lot, don’t you? Usually from people who aren’t scientists, never studied science in college or grad school, and probably too a science course in their lives. If you listen to “St. Greta”, mankind faces an imminent calamity. IPCC models forecast rapidly rising temperatures. But as the graph above demonstrates,Continue reading “Less Global Warming Than IPCC Forecasts”
Solar Minimum Cold and Snow
The GIF published above presents NOAA’s temperature anomaly forcasts over the next 2 days. As is evident, we’re looking at lower-48 temperature anomalies of upwards of a dozen degrees C below norms. I routinely track the effects of the Solar Minimum that has begun and will run at least through 2050 due planetary dynamics reducingContinue reading “Solar Minimum Cold and Snow”
Solar Driver of Climate Change
Energy imbalance is central to understanding and explaining climate change. The NASA-Goddard simplified representations does not show any long-term imbalance; others (Trenberth, Fasullo, & Kiehl, 2009) show an “net absorbed” of 0.9 W·m-2. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) indicates a “Surface imbalance” of 0.6 ±0.17 W·m-2 (one appreciates the margin precision). Judith Curry observes taking into account all potentialContinue reading “Solar Driver of Climate Change”
A European Polar Spring Amidst a Solar Minimum
Scotland’s coldest winter in a decade will drag on in what the Weather Outlook calls a three-week “polar spring”. Central UK faces an 85% chance of snow with potential for southernto experience unseasonable lows of -5C (23F). Central Europe expect a spring burial, with the Alps adding to the 3 meters (10 feet) of snowContinue reading “A European Polar Spring Amidst a Solar Minimum”
Nonlinear Dynamics of the Maunder Minimum
As discussed in Wikipedia (Wikipedia, 2021), the Maunder Minimum, also known as the “prolonged sunspot minimum”, is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers. The term was introduced after John A. Eddy[1] published a landmark 1976 paper in Science.[2] Astronomers before Eddy had also named theContinue reading “Nonlinear Dynamics of the Maunder Minimum”
Whole Lotta Shakin’ Going On
The solar cycle is at a minimum with the onset of Solar Cycle 25. As is also apparent, the more active solar period that peaked in the first decade of the 22nd century is now entering a 30 year low activity period. Higher seismic activity correlates with low solar activity. We are already seeing evidenceContinue reading “Whole Lotta Shakin’ Going On”
Climate Temperatures Continue Decline Following a 2016 Peak
The UAH lower troposphere temperature trends are turning south as the weaker Solar Cycle 25 continues into the Modern Solar Minimum. The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for February, 2021 should be available within the next few days here. The global and regional monthly anomalies for the variousContinue reading “Climate Temperatures Continue Decline Following a 2016 Peak”
Second Largest Gas Withdrawal Recorded
EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46916 Significant demand for natural gas in mid-February led to the second-largest reported withdrawal of natural gas from storage in the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). Weekly stocks fell by 338 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ending February 19, 2021, nearly three timesContinue reading “Second Largest Gas Withdrawal Recorded”
Dr. Judith Curry on Estimating Climate Risk Using Models that Fail Backtests
IPCC AR5 (2014) presents 4 emission pathways which are at the heart of the climate change debate. There are a range of other topics that are also debated – notably, the atmospheric and ocean physics effects from GHG concentrations assumed. Those effects are further attenuated by factors that modeled by IPCC such as a moreContinue reading “Dr. Judith Curry on Estimating Climate Risk Using Models that Fail Backtests”
Econophysics2020 