Simplicius: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/first-leg-of-afus-offensive-has-begun
Today is the first day we can probably say the offensive has truly begun in the sense that Ukraine has launched large maneuver attacks in exactly the primary directions long-predicted as being at the heart of the offensive. Yesterday’s push much farther east near Velyka Novosilka had long been forecasted as the ‘diversionary’ direction, and today they struck the true direction right under Orekhov where for a long time their main force buildup was observed by Russian recon/intel units.
With the large NATO Air Defender exercises—called ‘the largest ever’—set to begin on June 12, we can only assume that today was the opening act of what’s meant to be a ramp up that will crescendo during the exercises in less than a week. Presumably, Kiev is timing it to make initial breakthroughs from now til then, and then inject their much larger reserve force into the breakthrough zone right at the time of the exercises to achieve a truly triumphal propaganda syzygy.
But, judging by today’s results, that syzygy is more a zugzwang. Russian forces dealt a crushing blow to AFU’s meat-vanguard. Let’s break down how it happened in detail; however, before that, first let’s update a few things about the last advance over the past couple days on Zaporozhye’s eastern flank.
I reported last time how Russia managed to retake Novodonetsk under Velyka Novosilka. But I just wanted to add some of the official numbers to contextualize things. In a somewhat uncommon gesture, Shoigu himself actually gave the exact figures of Russian losses during this assault. They were:
71 Russian servicemen killed, 210 wounded.
So as one can see, Russian forces do take losses in these meat assaults by Ukraine. However, Shoigu’s listed losses for Ukraine for the period were:
Ukraine’s losses from June 4 to June 6 were 3,715 soldiers, 52 tanks, 207 armored vehicles, 134 vehicles, 5 aircraft, 2 helicopters, 48 artillery systems and 53 drones, Mr. Shoigu announced.
Many have scoffed at his figure of 3700 casualties, some saying that you can divide this by 10 and it’s still a lot. We must remember this includes wounded, so the KIA is likely much lower. The above figure is for major assaults over the course of three days. If you break down the 3,700 as probably 1000+ killed and 2700 wounded (give or take), how is that an unrealistic number for three days’ time of June 4, 5, and 6? That would mean 300 killed per day. That’s a light day for AFU even in Bakhmut when they were on defense. Now imagine them on offense, exposed and easy to hit.
Another thing, you see those figures like 52 tanks, 200+ armored vehicles—which too sounds like a lot. Once again that’s over three days. But interestingly, just in today’s new assault in west Zaporozhye, we have visual confirmation of 42 pieces of armor destroyed. That’s just from a couple videos from one unit out of dozens/hundreds of units on these lines. And this is just the videos of mass armor knockouts, there are dozens of videos showing individual pieces being knocked out like Lancets taking out artillery, of which there were at least 5-7 new videos today alone. So imagine what the total destroyed figures are when you extrapolate this out?
So, to get back to today’s offensive and the videos which the above graphics are sourced from, here is one of them, showing by some counts 11 armor/vehicles destroyed at once in one of the directions. It was said some of them hit mines while others were finished off by a combination of artillery and Russian attack choppers:
And another of Ukrainian BMP-2s and other pieces of disabled armor being finished off by Russian drones:
Even Jihad Julian threw one of his famous hissy fits:
Russian Spetsnaz group near Lobkov right on one of the directions:
Another Russian unit on the front says you can’t imagine how many enemies died today, “the number is measured in thousands”, confirming Shoigu’s reports:
Meanwhile, this was an AFU units post regarding the new French AMX-10 tanks they used for the first time in combat yesterday. First, note that we also have video confirmation for the first time of the tanks heading to the frontline:
It was initially once again misgendered as a Leopard, but sharp-eyed experts properly aligned it with an AMX-10 profile:
Of course, I already posted 3 of them destroyed/disabled/abandoned last time. But now here’s what the AFU unit operating them says about the mighty French wunderwaffe’s performance:
Not quite a rousing selling point for French engineering, eh?
Here’s a detailed description of the exact assaults that took place:
About the situation on the Zaporizhzhya front to the present moment.
In the area of the settlement of Stepovoye – Pyatikhatki, the enemy advanced with forces up to the MPV from the 128th Guards Brigade with the support of artillery.
Wedged into the defense up to 1 km in depth, was stopped on the northern outskirts of the Lobkovoe settlement, suffered losses, had no success, stepped up efforts with a tank platoon (4 tanks), made an attempt to bypass Lobkovoe from the west and reach the Kamenskoye settlement, with success did not have, lost all 4 tanks and retreated to the previously occupied line.
On the Gulyaipole-Mezhirich direction, he attacked with the forces of the RTGR from the 23rd Ombr, had no success, got stuck in the defense of the RF Armed Forces and retreated.
On the direction of Olgovskoye – Levadnoye, forces up to the RTGR from the 23rd Ombr wedged into the positions of the RF Armed Forces to the depth of the ROP, stopped, as a result of the counteroffensive of our troops, was thrown back and retreated.
On the Novopol – Novodarovka direction, with the help of the RTGR from the 23rd Ombr, with the support of a tank platoon, he tried to attack our positions, but he had no success, he retreated.
In the area of the Vremievsky ledge, west of the Neskuchnoye settlement, forces up to the RTGR from the 31st Ombre, wedged to a depth of more than a kilometer and managed to enter a height of 178.2, 2 km west of the Storozhevoye settlement.
In summary: the enemy seeks to capture the dominant heights in order to begin to create a springboard for a broad offensive and the introduction of 4 reserve brigades from 10 AK into battle.
The above map shows roughly the settlements they attacked on the western flank. But as can be seen from the description above, they made several other axes further east, close to Velyka Novosilka (on its western side).
Bar none the best military analyst on Twitter @MNormanDavies drew up this map of the AFU’s potential plans. The “A” line is the feint around Velyka Novosilka:
Enemy radio networks are overloaded. A large number of enemy equipment, we are told from the ground, has set in motion.
The NgP intelligence channel details: The enemy deployed the forces of 4 brigades of the 10th Army Corps for offensive operations in the direction of Orekhov – Tokmak – Melitopol.
🔴 Composition: 115, 116, 117, 118 OMBR.
🔴 In total: up to 20 thousand people, up to 90 tanks, up to 180 AFVs, up to 120 MLRS, up to 80 field artillery guns and mortars.
➡️ The goal of the enemy: a rapid breakthrough to the south and the blocking of Melitopol from the north.
The plans of the enemy are also known in advance, the calculation of the factor of surprise did not materialize, and this time, a warm welcome is provided.
Several of the above mentioned brigades are part of the special 9 developed by the West and armed with Western armor. However, they have not been committed yet but appear to be getting ready to be used as the breakthrough force after the meat assaults punch a hole in the Russian defenses first.
I said last time that the AFU strategy will be as follows:
They will increase the pressure on all these fronts in order to try to find a weak point. In a sense, it’s a larger scale continued recon-by-fire, but it seems a final preparatory one rather than the initial, much smaller speculative ‘feeler’ ones we’ve had for weeks.
But here’s the kicker. If they don’t find a weak spot and continue to be brutally rebuffed as they have been so far, the AFU plans to simply never announce this as the offensive. They will just pretend they are ‘testing’ Russia and the mythical offensive is still yet to come at some arbitrary and obscure future time.
But if they do find a weak spot, they will throw everything to punch through it and then ex post facto claim this was the major offensive all along. In short, they’re playing the dual psychological game I had already described long ago, the sort of phantom Schrodinger’s Offensive, where the plan is to characterize the actions afterwards depending on their success.
Another analysis from today:
⚡️Explanation to the previous summary.
According to the latest data, the forces from the 10th army corps of the strategic reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which we wrote about in the previous report, were attached to the current grouping in the Orekhov-Pologi direction, consisting of 3 brigades: 65 ombr, 128 ogshbr, 108 brigades.
The personnel of the 115th, 116th, 117th, 118th ombres took part in combat coordination on the territory of the Sumy region;Also, in the operational reserve, the enemy keeps 3 formations: 5 brigade 10 AK, 23 ombr, 5 oshbr, which is planned to be brought into battle to develop success, if such is achieved by the forces of the main group.
The enemy made a big bet on the mobility of his formations, and through this on the factor of the sudden appearance of a grouping at the front – this calculation is untenable.
At the moment, they are trying to break into the defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with forces of 108 obt, and then expand the wedging with the main forces, a classic meat assault with a “spent” terodefense, all according to the “zaluzhny”.
The common theme is that they’re probing in force, but the main breakthrough force is being positioned at the rear and ready to swing in as soon as the vanguard units find an opening. But the danger is that this breakthrough force is gigantic, and it is likely comprised of the main elite Western-trained brigades.
Turks continue to leak insiders
According to them, in the north of the Zaporozhye region, the Ukrainian army is preparing a new, larger corps of 30,000 people for a breakthrough from the Orekhovsky line towards Melitopol.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to strike with the forces of 100-150 tanks, 300 guns and MLRS, and from 500 to 1000 units of light armored vehicles, overcome minefields with masses of equipment and manpower, break through the Russian defensive lines, and then create a bridgehead where it is planned to introduce a group of not more than less than 50,000 bayonets. It is designed to expand the breakthrough.
To mask the main direction of attack, small attacks and artillery shelling continue along the front line.
The moment Ukraine launches an offensive of this magnitude, it will literally enter the final phase of its military effort, and the cessation of such attacks will be the clearest sign of Ukraine’s final defeat.
Ukraine has no other choice but to win, otherwise, in the face of a war of attrition, its current 4 million people in the form of already drafted, killed, commissioned and mobile resources will sooner or later be exhausted.
All Russia needs to do is properly use its firepower and manpower reserves to prevent any attempt to push its group back.
But recall what I said: if they do not achieve a breakthrough, they will scuttle this and pretend there was never anything serious, it was all just Russian propaganda and they were merely conducting testing strikes. This is my caveat to future people who may accuse me of having announced the final offensive. The truth is, this is it, but they are still dipping one toe in with the other foot on shore so they can pretend they never intended to launch should things go sour. And of course, I still predict that they will not get a breakthrough so that is to say don’t actually expect the “big one” to come. However, the forces are positioned to launch this ‘big one’ the moment a breakthrough comes, so there is a chance—I simply give it a higher probability that they won’t breach.
Recall that, as large as those numbers above sound—a 30,000 man breakthrough force followed by a 50,000 man reserve to expand the breakthrough once it’s unleashed—I’ve noted previously that some sources estimate Russia has close to 200k men on this front waiting for these advances. Most of them would likely be way in the rear, or not even injected into the actual theater yet (i.e. could be in Crimea, etc.) but that is the totality of what they can bring to bear there in a short amount of time to plug holes on any ‘breakthroughs’.
With that said, the intel remains very dangerous for UA’s capabilities here. For instance, top Russian analyst channel Two Majors has the following analysis of today. Note the sophisticated use of EW warfare, accurately reconnoitered fires to Russia’s rear, professional de-mining operations, and advanced equipment like nightvision for incoming nighttime operations:
The Two Majors résumé of the day: Zaporozhye Front. Preliminary Conclusions.
Fighting and artillery duels continue. The enemy is actively using drones.
Today, the enemy threw in the frontline units of the strategic reserve—the 10th Army Corps and the 128th Alpine Assault Brigade in the direction of Kamensky and Orekhovo. The goal was to conduct battle reconnaissance and de-mine the terrain with Soviet and NATO systems. The enemy engaged in active electronic warfare.
On average, in various tactical direction, the Ukrainians used up to two motorized infantry companies per direction, supported by tanks, and, in the course of combat, regrouped and reinforced the forward units with tanks and infantry. The enemy conducted strikes on our command posts in the rear with artillery and rocket fire.
The Ukrainian forces suffered significant losses among the forward groups and retreated.
The goal of the AFU’s actions was:
▪️To uncover our defense system
▪️To verify the location of our artillery positions
▪️To test the electronic warfarE in relation to our nodes and communication channels
▪️To de-mine the first echelons of the Russian Armed Forces’ defense
▪️ To compromise the effectiveness of the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces in our defense zone and neighboring formations.
The main enemy forces have not yet been engaged in combat. According to military command estimates, the AFU has amassed about 20,000 personnel for the main strike in order to reach Melitopol via Tokmak.
Our troops are ready – night and morning strikes are likely. The enemy has massively supplied the drivers and mechanics with night vision implements.
The enemy is also driven forward by the anticipation of the change in the weather—heavy rains are expected after the 12th/13th, and the specific density of the ground in such conditions will be a serious factor for the passability of equipment.
The battle continues. Right now there are artillery duels and enemy UAVs are operating.
And Rybar has further intel which appears to indicate much larger coming pushes soon:
In the tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Marun”, which, apparently, will form the shock backbone of the offensive forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the organization of communication and combat control systems between the airborne assault units (46 oaembr, 82 odshbr, 71 ebr and 132 reconnaissance units) is currently being debugged.
Most likely, the next attempts, and more massive ones, will be made in the near future. Additional batteries, ammunition and uniforms were issued to the Ukrainian formations on the front line today, and they were put on alert for active combat operations. (Rybar)
Thus far, Russian forces are holding admirably and giving almost no ground at all as far as I can tell. There was one complaint from an analyst about an alleged small breakthrough just west of Lobkove in the Kamyanske direction (far west of Orokhov/Orikhiv). However, I haven’t seen any actual confirmation this actually happened, so his complaints may be premature.
The fighting happened just like in the Novodonetsk direction. The AFU would push with a lot of light armor and MRAPS which would hit minefields then be picked apart by Russian Ka-52s and artillery. And there are several new videos showing the Ka-52s in action:
What’s funny is that Russian troops state that the airmen tell them they love the American Maxxpros in particular as their very tall outlines presents such a juicy fat target to destroy:
Ka-52 + Vikhr = Max Pro goes to hell.
Our guys tell us that all those American tall huge boxes are awesome targets.
But now, let’s get back to the Novodonetsk battles of the past three days near Velyka Novosilka, as there are a few other important updates to make on that.
We’ve already covered how absolutely shredded the AFU got in that advance attempt. But now we also have further confirmations from their own side streaming en masse. There have been two separate videos released of their own 37th brigade pleading with leadership, saying they were told it was an ‘empty village’ and they got slaughtered:
Fear and Loathing in Novodonetsk
Yesterday the Ukrainian army stormed Novodonetsk, and today there have already been revelations from one of the participants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
They marched without artillery preparation, without tank support – and they got it in full in the village. About 60 people died in the battalion, many were injured.
The soldier already understands that they have become cannon fodder and the president has deceived them, but it is too late, alas….ragulo goes to the right side THE RUSSIAN ARMY FIGHTS FOR GOOD
One was a lone drunk soldier, the other was an entire unit:
The personnel of the 505th of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, sent to capture a deserted village in the Zaporozhye region, were attacked by Russian UAVs and artillery for 5 hours, saying that they suffered heavy losses and reacted harshly to the poor command and indifference of the officers.
In the Bakhmut area, a similar incident occurred with the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade, and it was forced to evacuate forward positions as a result of heavy shelling.
Some claimed the ‘drunk’ one was a fake, yet the same soldier actually released multiple videos lambasting the AFU command; unfortunately it’s not subtitled.
Ukrainian accounts quickly sprang into action to claim it’s “fake”, but here’s the kicker, Russian forces recovered massive amounts of documents from the hundreds of casualties that this group incurred:
They published all of them in full, you can easily find the zoomed in, detailed scans.
Demilitarisation,Denazification,Denulandisation,DeNATOization,DeMaidanization,DeUkrainization continues…
Soldiers fomr the 40th Marine Brigade searched the abandoned bodies and equipment of their “colleagues” Marines from the 37th separate communications Regiment of the AFU in Novodonetskoye and brought various documents.
It’s not just passports that are interesting here. You should have seen how much waste paper the enemy brought with him to the assault.
There are reports, and lists of personnel, and callsign tables along with combat control signals, staff schedules, handouts of dry rations and ammunition… Someone even went on the attack with a medical card, and someone holding a bank contract under his heart.
Now Novodonetskpoye is under Russian Army control again, the AFU has been successfully finished off and cleaned out during the counterattack. Previously, the AFU lost about 50 personnel.
The report above states there are tons of useful military documents recovered from their bodies, highly secret OPORD docs, etc.
What’s shocking is that the 37th is one of the 9 big elite Western-trained brigades. This is the one in the Pentagon leaks that was allocated the French AMX-10s as well as the Mastiffs. What’s interesting is that we now have confirmation of several mastiffs destroyed as well as yesterday’s AMX-10s, which proves this 37th is operating here:
Destruction of British armored vehicles during the enemy attack on Novodonetskoye
Fighters of the Southern Group destroyed British Mastiff armored vehicles during the battles for Novodonetskoye at the junction of the DPR and the Zaporozhye region.
The first Mastiff was hit from an ATGM on board, after which the combat vehicle caught fire. One of the crew members managed to get out and escape from the battlefield.
The second car was hit by a mine, after which the enemy hastily began to pull out their 300s. The footage shows how the militants leave the wrecked car and try to return to their original positions on foot.
Here you can clearly see the knocked out Mastiffs as well as many other vehicles. This settlement you see in the pictures is actually Novodonetsk:
And here are the geolocations of where the Mastiffs were destroyed:
#Geolocation of Ukrainian🇺🇦 forces while storming #Novodonetske two of their MRAPs got disabled.
Yesterday we receivied information that Russian🇷🇺 troops retake the full control over these village
S1📌47.751500, 36.958015
S2📌47.756374, 36.956753
So, basically: the 37th is already being shredded and this was one of the big bad NATO-trained formations that was supposed to slice through Russian forces like a hot knife through butter.
The Pentagon OPORD leaks had the brigade as:
37th BDE:
30 x Mastiff / Husky (UK)
30 x Mastiff / Wolf (UK)
30 x Senator (Canada)
14 x AMX-10 (France)
16 x Tanks (unknown)
12 x D-30 artillery
So out of the above we already have confirmation of a bunch of Mastiffs taken out, at least 3 AMX-10 visually confirmed and 1 Senator, as well as numerous tanks and countless infantry.
And if that wasn’t enough proof of the hiding they’re taking, check this weepy post about a unit from Ukraine’s 57th brigade. Not a single person returned from the offensive:
But worry not, one of AFU’s commanders said that the true purpose of the grand counter-offensive is to not allow Russian troops to advance:
😐🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺Alexander Tarnavsky, commander of the operational-strategic grouping of the AFU “Tavria”, said that the counteroffensive consists in the fact that the AFU does not allow Russian troops to advance…
Klitschko has found himself a worthy opponent…
Zaporozhye front. In the area against N. p. Novodanilovka.
So all this time, the counter-offensive was actually a reverse counter-offensive whose purpose was to simply keep Russia from conquering more territory. This is akin to Budanov’s statement that Crimea has already been conquered by Ukraine…psychologically.
Now, that things are heating up, and UA is starting to get aggressive with their usage of prime equipment, we’ve had a slew of confirmations of prestige system kills from today alone.
Firstly, what appears to be the first ever Swedish CV-90 IFV destroyed:
This is widely considered by many to be the world’s best infantry fighting vehicle, and was one of the most elite and advanced pieces of kit sent to Ukraine.
Now, the Russian Lancet has gotten the first ever confirmation kill on the German IRIS-T air defense. Ukraine has very few units of this and this is one of NATO’s most expensive and powerful AD systems:
🇷🇺🚀💥🔥🇺🇦🇩🇪 Confirmation of the destruction of part of the IRIS-T battery by a Russian “Lancet” drone.
Arrival of the “Lancet” into the locator of the multifunctional German radar Hensoldt TRML-4D from the IRIS-T SLM SAM.
The radar is clearly disabled,out of the game and will not serve the UkroReich anymore…
Radar is the most important component of the system,SAM system is literally blind without them,so this was excellent decision and excellent hit…
But even with these victories, I don’t want to get overcocky as Ukraine still has a lot of offensive potential left, and only one of the big 9 brigades has been fully committed thus far. Even as of this writing there is news that the AFU has regrouped and is spotted coming towards Russian positions again, this time at night.
Some believe they perhaps will attempt night attacks under the hope that their putatively ‘better’ Western nightvision/thermal optics in the new Western-supplied vehicles can outperform the equipment of Russian defenders. This is particularly in regard to if they are to finally use the American Bradleys, German Leopards, British Challengers, etc. (fat chance of that). Like I said, the next few days may only continue ramping up in intensity to hit a peak crescendo by the time of the NATO exercises at which point they may have some “surprise” in store.
In the meantime, former Ukrainian presidential advisor believes that Zelensky could be overthrown if he fails in this counter-offensive:
🇺🇦 Zelensky can be overthrown in a failed counteroffensive
This was stated by the former adviser to the second President of Ukraine Kuchma Oleg Soskin.
He believes that the consequences of the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the Kherson region are larger for Ukraine than the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
📝 “If the counter-offensive bogs down, then an internal uprising will begin. Zelensky’s power is melting like snow in the sun. The vital resources of Zelensky, Yermak and this group are evaporating. Now his homeland Krivoy Rog will perish without water,” the expert said in his blog.
And one of the best most level-headed war bloggers/correspondents/commentators, Sladkov, has this to say about the offensive:
👉Sladkov
Kyiv STRETCHES THE FRONT, WAR GETTING EXPENSIVE
Both for us and for the enemy. The calculation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to pull apart our defensive potential: either they will strike at Zaporizhia, then in Ugledar, then near Gorlovka, now the Belgorod sector has become more active.
I don’t understand, what’s the point of the military then? Any enemy activity, any attack is being prepared in the rear, and now we are masters in defeating Ukrainian rear clusters and formations, we don’t care where our missiles and Geraniums are directed, to this region of Ukraine or to this one.
Most likely, Kyiv, despite the American “come on, come on,” decided to give priority to the information front, not having confidence in a purely military victory. Logically. They create a “nix” on a lot of attacks, and talk a lot about it.
It would be more profitable for us to have their decisive attack, with a decisive defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Kyiv, they understand this, and imitate violent activity. Our combat potential, primarily due to the efforts of the military-industrial complex, is growing every day.
Now let’s move onto some sundry updates about various other ongoing situations.
First, let’s start with a small update on the Kakhovka dam. Earlier today, Twitter “community notes” attempted to debunk the narrative that Ukraine was playing with the water levels of the Kakhovka reservoir. But soon after, their own ‘fact check’ was destroyed when new footage was released from residents upriver showing that Ukraine’s hydro-electric plants had in fact massively opened up their sluice gates. Here are both of the videos compiled:
The man recording even says, “I’ve never seen this in my life.”
⚡️⚡️⚡️Meanwhile, at the moment, the locks are still open in DneproGES (Ukrainian controlled), which means that the Ukrainian leadership is not interested in stopping the flood…and the Western media is silent⚡️⚡️⚡️
Vladimir Rogov appears to believe that the lowering of the Kakhovka Basin water levels will actually increase the risk of Ukraine landing to try to seize the ZNPP nuclear plant at Energodar:
💥💥💥⚡️ The lowering of the water level in the Kakhovka Basin due to the weakening of the dam of the hydroelectric power plant of the same name located downstream of the Dnieper increases the risk of landings by militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to capture the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
This was stated by Vladimir Rogov, leader of the “We are together with Russia” movement.💥💥💥
And on the note of the Dnipropetrovsk hydro-electric plant being opened up by Kiev prior to the Kakhovka event to raise water levels, we have the first truly high level Russian confirmation of this. Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated the following:
Patrushev: Kyiv released water to Dnipropetrovsk HPP a day before the attack on Kakhovka Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolay Patrushev said today that, on the order of Kiev, water was released in the Dnipropetrovsk hydroelectric power plant, a day before the attack on the Kahovka HPP. “On the orders of Kyiv, 24 hours earlier there was a massive water release at the Dnipropetrovsk HPP, and then there was an attack on the Kahovka HPP, which led to terrible consequences,” said Patrushev, TASS reports.
One very ominous development is that the Kakhovka dam situation has markedly shifted the rhetoric from topic Russian leadership. The above-mentioned Patrushev, who is said to be in the innermost circle of Putin, and who not only used to be the director of the FSB but once considered as the leading candidate for the future presidency of Russia, stated in a new interview that the Kiev regime needs to be “replaced” and Ukraine itself must become a neutral state:
The new goal of the SMO is the demolition of the Nazi regime in Kiev.
It seems that new specifics have been added to the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine as the goals of the SMO.
“Washington and London created the Kiev Nazi regime, which must be replaced, giving Ukraine the status of a neutral state in practice,” said Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev (pictured) in an interview with Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich.
However, Russian state Duma deputy Elena Panina went even further stating that the only way to ensure Russia’s security is for the entirety of Ukraine to be incorporated into Russia as a federal district, i.e. total absorption of the state of Ukraine:
Elena Panina, director of the Institute of Russian Strategic Studies, draws the right conclusion: “Unfortunately, Ukraine already had the status of a neutral state – until February 2019, when a clause on striving for the EU and NATO was introduced into the country’s constitution. However, that status did not affect either on the terror of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass, nor on the systemic Russophobic policy of Kiev, which has been openly progressing since 1991.
Is it possible for a neutral, non-Nazi, peaceful regime to emerge in Ukraine today? Only if the current owners of Ukraine represented by the United States agree to this. Are there many chances for this? No.
Rather, one can imagine that for some incredible geopolitical reasons, after the completion of the SMO, Russia for some reason decides to create a new buffer state on the territory of Ukraine – with the same name and with some kind of neutral status. But this will be an extremely unfortunate decision, which sooner or later will again turn Ukraine into “Anti-Russia” – otherwise it is not clear why this part of the Russian world should be separated from the Russian Federation at all.
It turns out that the only promising implementation of the neutral Ukraine plan is the Ukrainian Federal District of the Russian Federation.”
Several days ago I already posted how Dmitry Medvedev called for the total “extermination” of the Kiev Nazi Regime. Today, he issued another statement calling not only for the total overthrow of the ‘Nazi Regime’, but he interestingly gave us a clue by stating that as soon as Russia defeats the Ukrainian ‘counter-offensive’, Russia must launch a massive offensive of its own:
From Dmitry Medvedev on Telegram:.
“The enemy has long promised a great counteroffensive.
And it looks like something has already started.
No surprises, since the Kiev regime has no choice. We must attack. It is necessary to justify the received loot and weapons. The disappointment of the owners can cost Zelensky&Co not only posts, but life itself.
A few reports from American agents, who have long been in command of the SBU, are enough, and the whole cocaine shobla will be instantly written off as scrap.
They will be accused of wasting American taxpayers’ money. Moreover, they will do it by someone else’s hands, as they like in Langley: they will give the order to radical scumbags to slap a drug addict for treason to the Republic of Ukraine and the Bandera cause, and then hang him by his feet along with his henchmen, as they once hung the Duce and his fascist junta on Loreto Square in Milan.
Therefore, the Kiev regime has only one way out – to go to the end, sending thousands of mobilized to death.
But in this case, we should not underestimate the enemy.
The enemy and the Western world that supports him are ready to do anything to wipe our country off the face of the earth.
Therefore, now the main thing is to concentrate as much as possible and give a decent answer. Our army has a significant advantage in aviation, armored forces, and high-precision weapons. And, of course, moral high ground.
We need to stop the enemy, and then launch an offensive.
Our goal today is not only to liberate our lands and protect our people. His goal is the complete overthrow of the Nazi Kiev regime, which entrenched itself in the country of 404.”
Yes, he actually called Ukraine ‘Country 404’. For some reason I thought that was only Saker’s trademark, but I guess Medvedev is now using it too.
The important thing to note about all this is that, for everyone who’s been worried on whether Putin will end up selling out and going soft on Ukraine, more and more recently his top siloviki have been giving us big clues as to the interior mood inside the Kremlin and their inner circle. It’s very difficult to imagine Putin would back down from maximalist objectives in light of how strongly his inner circle is now signaling their intentions.
Now, a few notes on the Belgorod region situations. Ukraine’s phantom offensive into the region continues generating nothing but fake psyop vapor while they continue to slowly be liquidated. Here is a large cache of high end mercenary gear recovered from a batch of liquidated agents in the Novaya Tavolzhanka region:
The biggest thing to note is the very expensive, $200k+, Black Hornet Nano used by U.S. special forces. Russian Archangel Spetsnaz group was said to have swept Novaya Tavolzhanka and even made a video challenging the cowardly RDK group to come and fight them and not hide in the forests as they have been doing.
The Black Hornet Nano was not adopted for service with regular troops due to its high cost:
200,000 dollars a unit
Nobody gives that equipment to units without extensive training, probably mercenaries from Western SoF corps.
This is where the cowardly group appears to be hiding from Russian Spetsnaz:
They get chased out then crawl through the forests playing peekaboo and popping out for five minutes to take some photos inside the village, then run away again. Also, their equipment is being systematically found by Russian recon in the forests and destroyed.
As for Belgorod, the AFU is spreading as much psyops and propaganda as possible about mass chaos and panic in Belgorod, Shebekino, etc., but that’s not the case. Not only have I personally seen a bunch of interviews with Belgorod residents who are either upbeat or not concerned at all, but this journalist confirms it:
“Belgorodites cannot be intimidated” – the psychological attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed.
Despite the massive shelling, terrorist attacks and rampage of sabotage groups, the inhabitants of the Belgorod region are not afraid and are ready to continue the fight against the Nazis, said Russian journalist Ivan Pankin, who is in the Belgorod region.
The studio asked if the psychological attack of the Ukronazis to intimidate the inhabitants of Russia was successful.
“If we are talking about Belgorod, the city lives its own life, everything is in order here. For example, I saw a huge number of weddings in the central square.
I don’t see any panic here at all. In terms of the psychological atmosphere, everything is in order,” Pankin said.
He stressed that the same sentiment prevails in areas closer to the border.
“And I observed the same thing yesterday in the districts. I went to those sections where the exit is not blocked – Krasnoye, Shchetinino, Golovino. I visited there, looked at some of the destruction, something is already being restored.
And people say, “It’s no big deal. Well, if they destroy it, we will rebuild it.” Such sentiments. So to intimidate – no, Belgorod residents cannot be scared,” summed up the journalist.”
A few other things, firstly I had promised to mention the Russian MOD blooper, when they misidentified the Ukrainian combine harvester or farming tractor for a Leopard:
But the interesting angle others haven’t covered is that the so-called ‘tractor’ appears as pitch black on the reverse-contrast thermal view. Typically very ‘hot’ objects would appear that dark, while cold objects appear lighter in color.
This would seem to indicate the farming equipment was active. So the big question is, why were there active farming tractors with engines running in the middle of a mass Ukrainian offensive? Either the ‘farmers’ were really oblivious and reckless or the AFU deliberately staged their tank advance through active farm fields in the midst of sowing/harvesting in order to disguise themselves behind civilian shields. Or perhaps it wasn’t a tractor after all, though it admittedly does look like one.
Either way, it appears the MOD made an embarrassing mistake here but my tu quoque argument will be: why do people pretend that a single mistake by the Russian MOD is so critical when the U.S. Pentagon is literally known worldwide as the kings of misattribution, misidentification, etc. How many Afghan weddings did they mistake for army groups? How many civilian cars did they mistake for various types of military gear? There are so many cases of the U.S. wrongfully identifying targets that it’s not even a competition—Russian MOD stands no chance at the U.S. crown here. I won’t even get into the needless deep-dive of U.S. failures but if we’re going to judge optics by critical ‘mistakes’ made then U.S. craft have the worst optics in the world, as the number of wrongfully struck targets and killed civilians they’re responsible for is nearly uncountable.
And some have laughably and disingenuously made fun of ‘Russian optics’, claiming the Ka-52’s EO/optics are so bad they can’t tell a farm tractor apart. Yet they fail to note that most of these kills are at ranges exceeding 10-15km. For that distance, those optics are excellent; anyone who doesn’t think so simply doesn’t know anything about military optics. You can’t compare a 15km missile kill to a video of an AH64 Apache guns kill which are at most like 500m to 1km since 30mm chainguns can’t fire that far.
I think I’ve recounted this before but all you must do is use a stopwatch to time how long the Ka-52’s missile takes to reach the target. In some of the video kills I posted it was upwards of 18-20 seconds. The 9K121 Vikhr missile they use has a speed of 600m/s which means 18s x 600m = 10.8km.
In other news:
A new WashPost article is calling Ukraine’s new offensive an all-or-nothing D-Day. What’s interesting is how all Western press now frames the offensive exclusively as revolving around the objective of freezing the conflict. They clearly no longer see victory as possible whatsoever:
Military campaigns are rarely all or nothing, but this one comes close. If Ukraine can drive back an already shaky Russian army, it stands a chance of forcing Moscow to bargain for an end of its failed invasion. But if Ukraine fails, it would be a bitter blow to the country’s weary population and could endanger continued support from some restless NATO members.
By the way, the article repeats a completely fabricated narrative invented by ISW and co. that Ukraine gained a massive 10km in their push. No such gains were made and in fact after suffering horrific losses, the AFU was pushed back pretty much to the starting line. But it shows the level of propaganda being pumped to a completely delusional Western audience that slurps up this slop and asks for seconds.
The hilarious article tries to stir up mythic images of improbable victory by invoking not only the American Revolutionary War and the Civil War but even the Battle of the Bulge of WW2.
It ends on an utterly cretinous passage that can only be characterized as gaslighting the poor Ukrainians into a further slaughter by propping them up on false hopes built on shaky foundations of fake propaganda:
Against these failed breakouts, D-Day stands as a reminder that an army must sometimes take huge risks to position itself for eventual victory. Any visitor to Omaha Beach in Normandy will recall the steep cliffs at Pointe du Hoc that American Rangers had to scale to dislodge German forces. The grave markers for the soldiers who died on D-Day seem to stretch almost to the horizon. But they won the battle — and the war.
Well, at least one positive from this drastic tone change is that even the twisted Western propagandists now clearly acknowledge that this is the final hail mary hurrah on which everything rests.
A last couple of items. I had mentioned some Taiwanese mercenaries last time, but now one of them has returned home and offers up some candid insights into the AFU’s losses. He states in an interview that his unit suffered 50% losses, the platoon was completely annihilated twice. And he said, they did not even fight in ‘the deadliest zone’ of the conflict:
🇹🇼🇺🇦💀Taiwan volunteer soldier describes his experience fighting for Ukraine – Taiwan News
(https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4911497)
Soldier’s unit suffered 50% casualties, 20% killed in action, platoon ‘annihilated twice’
A Taiwanese volunteer soldier in Ukraine’s foreign legion on Sunday (June 4) uploaded a detailed account of the realities of fighting in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The Taiwanese soldier, who goes by the handle “I don’t know Mount Lushan” (不識廬山), has recently returned from duty in Ukraine and Sunday uploaded an extremely detailed thread with advice to would-be volunteers considering joining the fight. Topics he covered were the expenses, physical demands, necessary language skills, combat training needed, and the mentality one should possess.
The volunteer’s post was generated in response to the many inquiries he received from readers about joining the International Legion of Territorial Defence of Ukraine (ILDU) and had the objective of helping the public fully comprehend the situation in Ukraine and “think twice before making a decision.” That same day, Lai Cheney-wei (賴正瑋), a former chemistry professional and war analysis blogger in Taiwan, posted full English and Japanese language translations of the soldier’s original Chinese post.
He said that many experienced soldiers from the West would break down and quit due to the many hardships and, unlike Ukrainian soldiers, the legion’s members are not protecting their homelands, and are therefore more prone to desertion.
Another tidbit was that Rybar appeared to have gotten confirmed intel that 20 seamen infact died on the Ukrainian ship Yuri Olefirenko which was destroyed by Russia last week, with another 23 badly wounded.
🇺🇦 We would like to add to our colleagues from the Turned in the War that the number of injured sailors on the medium landing ship “Yuri Olefirenko” may be more: 20 were liquidated and 23 were injured .
So we can say with confidence that the hit on Olefirenko turned out to be very accurate.
👉rybar
Another thing: many Ukrainian channels are claiming that the Kakhovka dam breach destroyed [enter ridiculous number here] amounts of Russian troops, gear, etc. But in fact no such thing happened. Not only have videos appeared showing orderly Russian military evacuations in the zone, but even perennial-pessimist Strelkov admitted that Russia evacuated from the at-risk zone with minimal losses of any kind:
Strelkov: According to my data (from the spot) the withdrawal in the flooded lower reaches of the Dnieper was carried out, albeit waist-deep in water, but in a fairly organized manner, with small losses. Troops are being hastily assigned to new frontiers. The evacuation was unexpected both for us and for the enemy. Both sides tried to take advantage of this by actively using artillery. However, according to local reports, the enemy moved a significant part of its reconnaissance and correction units to the Zaporozhye front and its fire was not accurate enough to seriously hinder the redeployment of our units. As for our artillery fire , I have no data on its accuracy. And, yes , apparently, I overestimated the degree of” creativity ” of the enemy command. Breaking the dam, apparently, was not linked to an offensive operation. The enemy was not ready for it, just like our troops. Nevertheless, all the previously described threats (including those to the Kinburn Spit) remain relevant.
Russia in the meantime used huge Mi-8 helicopters to bring troops and equipment in the danger zone to safety:
But not everything was perfect. Rybar reports the following:
One of the most acute problems of the post — Soviet armies is the lack of initiative. Several Russian soldiers who occupied advanced positions in the flood zone after the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station are missing. Why? They were waiting for the command from above. But she wasn’t. (Rybar)
As of this writing, AFU is renewing an assault in the middle of the night, there are already reports of casualties and a lot of destruction of AFU armor in the same direction from Orekhov in Zaporozhye region. We’ll see what happens and update again next time.
Econophysics2020 