US Regional Banks at Ground Zero of the Hormuz Commodity Shocks

With the greatest global commodity shock dynamic propagating, it’s timely to examine the banking landscape at the water’s edge just before the tsunami sweeps in. Per FDIC, the banking industry’s loss provision expense was $20.8 billion in the third quarter 2025, down $9.2 billion QoQ mostly due to Capital One’s acquisition of Discover Financial Services.Continue reading “US Regional Banks at Ground Zero of the Hormuz Commodity Shocks”

Credit Market Stress and Cascading Failures

Market chatter seems to be rising reflecting growing fears credit market stress is ascending as Treasury yields fall and other economic warning signs are lighting up. Manufacturing data and labor markets are retreating and the Fed is shutting down its QT policy ahead of possible rate cuts. A bank liquidity crisis occurs when a bankContinue reading “Credit Market Stress and Cascading Failures”

Starting a Trade War? Or Ending One?

If you had a bad week in markets since “Liberation Day”, here’s your “Daisy”. Stephen Miran. American economist and current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers since March 2025. (Sorry Mark, you’re STILL a “bridesmaid” and a hilarious talking head for a very sketchy operation — LOL) Back to Stephen – Senior Strategist atContinue reading “Starting a Trade War? Or Ending One?”