The note answers two market questions: How does one detect a structural break in global oil markets subjected to geopolitical shocks (e.g., the Iran War)? When did the Iran War signal a regime change in global oil markets? Signal Detection The Bai-Perron (2003) procedure endogenously detects multiple, unknown structural breaks in time series data. ItContinue reading “Iran War Regime Change in Oil Markets”
Tag Archives: #iran
90 Seconds to Midnight
I spent most of my twenties as a commissioned officer in the US Navy’s nuclear propulsion program. Assigned to nuclear attack submarines and a nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser as a nuclear engineering watch officer. Later qualified Chief Engineer by Admiral Rickover. Every Navy nuke officer has his Rickover interview stories. You had to survive hisContinue reading “90 Seconds to Midnight”
High Seas Seizure
Iran seized Hankuk Chemi along with her cargo of ethanol. No doubt just a coincidence, ROK is holding Iranian assets seized for sanction violations. For additional information: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irans-irgc-navy-seizes-south-korean-flagged-tanker-gulf-arrests-crew https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/HANKUK-CHEMI-IMO-9232369-MMSI-440172000
Run Silent, Run Deep
Two attack submarines in the Gulf – one Israeli and the other American. Here’s the why, courtesy of Al Monitor: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/israel-us-iran-yemen-egypt-suez-canal-donald-trump-submarine.html
