Author Archives: econophysics2020
Transport Volumes Up
Carloads and intermodal units up 2.2% YoY. Four carload commodities showed increases over 2019, led by grain, up 23.9%; six were down, most notably coal (minus-20.1%) and petroleum and petroleum products (minus-19.1%). For the year to date, total traffic is down 9.8%, with intermodal units down 5.1% and carloads down 14.9%. https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2020/10/21-intermodal-traffic-remains-up-carloads-still-down-aar-statistics-show
Red Ponzi Saber-rattling
“Every rocket force brigade in Fujian and Guangdong is now fully equipped.” Chang asserts that this is evidence of the communist regime’s invasion plans: “The size of some of the missile bases in the Eastern and Southern theatre commands have even doubled in recent years, showing the PLA is stepping up preparations for a warContinue reading “Red Ponzi Saber-rattling”
“When the European Union speaks as a superior, Russia wants to know: Can we do any business with the EU?”
Lavrov: “No matter what we do, the West will try to hobble and restrain us, and undermine our efforts in the economy, politics, and technology. These are all elements of one approach.” Question: “Their national security strategy states that they will do so.” Lavrov: “Of course it does, but it is articulated in a way thatContinue reading ““When the European Union speaks as a superior, Russia wants to know: Can we do any business with the EU?””
Systemic Risk in the Red Ponzi
According to Reuters, Beijing now wants a full accounting of everything going on at local developers. “The government is monitoring everything now, unless you want to cheat, but they will be able to tell from your monthly figures,” said a senior executive at one of the developers in the pilot scheme. Following concerns of too much developerContinue reading “Systemic Risk in the Red Ponzi”
Enjoy Oligarchy
“ “Step one, help yourself to tasty assets from the public trough. Step two, figure out how to keep them. “The best investment in Ukrainian history may be about to become even better—Burisma’s recruiting of Hunter Biden to its board. After a government minister allegedly awards himself lucrative gas rights, the Ukrainian people overthrow aContinue reading “Enjoy Oligarchy”
Adrift in the Range Bound
Bouncing off support.
George Friedman on Why the Future Is Never What We Expect
China as a rising nation. It is a nation that has risen. Source: George Friedman on Why the Future Is Never What We Expect
LA Port Traffic
September imports strong and exports weak. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/10/la-area-port-traffic-strong-imports.html?m=1
Loss Loss Reserves – and CECL Relief
With Senator Chuck Schumer covering their backs under CARES Act stimulus, mega banks don’t need to think much about reserving for losses on financial instruments under Current Expected Credit Losses or CECL (pronounced Cecil). So, what kind of reserves are indicated? A lot less than the Crash.