A big surprise just how ugly the December print was, with the BLS reporting that a whopping 140K jobs were lost last month, the first monthly job loss since April’s record drop. The -140K print was worse than all but three of 66 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7Continue reading “Job Loss”
Author Archives: econophysics2020
Office Apocalypse
As reported in Bloomberg, new leases in the fourth quarter dropped 64% YoY to 4.6 million square feet. Average asking rents for the highest-quality offices fell 8.6% to $90.42 a square foot, a decline that doesn’t capture concessions such as free months or tenant-improvement allowances. And, as the graph above indicates, this may just beContinue reading “Office Apocalypse”
Oligarchical Collectivism and the Outer Party
Recall in the world of 1984, it is the middle class – the Outer Party – that is most feared by the Inner Party. The Party employs a Ministry of Truth, historical revisionism, and memory holes to rob Proles and the Outer Party of their history and the present. “Who controls the past controls theContinue reading “Oligarchical Collectivism and the Outer Party”
False Flag or Staged Event?
As the story goes, police actually opened up the barricades that were surrounding the U.S. Capitol and purposely allowed protesters to storm the building. Just as a debate about the evidence of election irregularities was about to begin in the halls of Congress, these riots conveniently broke out. Members of Congress were quickly evacuated, andContinue reading “False Flag or Staged Event?”
A Blue Wave of Helicopter Money
Corporate elites get their payday. As for the rest? Qu’ils mangent du gâteau. And remember what history teaches happens next: après moi le déluge https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-are-full-blue-wave-implications-politics-markets-and-economy
Record Margin Debt
Margin debt at all-time high reaching $722.1 billion through November. Such peaks coinciding with spiking money supply and slowing monetary velocity signals haircuts ahead. Recall what they say about reefing sails – you do it the moment the thought first crosses your mind.
Supply Chain Disruption
As Tyler observes, ISM falsely shows an uptick when, in fact, delivery time extension is more indicative of a supply chain disruption. Recall US industrial production remains stalled 5.6 percentage points below the long-run average. Nothing like this ever happened before. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ism-manufacturing-unexpectedly-soars-supplier-delivery-times-spike
CoVid Immunity
Rodda et al. (2020) performed a longitudinal assessment of individuals recovered from mild COVID-19 to determine whether they develop and sustain multifaceted SARS-CoV-2-specific immunological memory. They determined that recovered individuals developed SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulin (IgG) antibodies, neutralizing plasma, and memory B and memory T cells that persisted for at least 3 months. Their data further revealsContinue reading “CoVid Immunity”
Yikes!
If I may respectfully quote Tim Knight: “Let’s start with Bitcoin. Sunday evening, out of seven billion people on the planet, I was the only one stupid enough to actually say the following: ‘my wild guess at this point is that cryptos have – – for the time being – – peaked..’ Well, this sucker plunged FIVE THOUSANDContinue reading “Yikes!”
Opening Bell
Where’s Jack? Lost in a memory hole? Maybe just like those American jobs lost – never to be seen again. https://dealbreaker.com/2021/01/opening-bell-1-4-2021
Econophysics2020 