The BLS jobs report shows a trend that’s years from a recovery.
Total nonfarm payroll employment up 916,000 in March, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.0 percent. But when you unpack things, it’s a bit squishy.
The 916K was led by gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.
Leisure and hospitality took 280,000 of the total. Construction grabbed 110,000 while government schools claimed 76,000.
Let’s look back a year to see what the trend was then – 347,000 in March 2020 which was essentially continuing the flatline from Summer 2019.
When you throw in the U-6 and the “not in the workforce but looking” cohort, that 6.0 percent unemployment looks more like 13.4% – reinforcing the “flatline” trend.
Teachers finally going back to work, construction projects restarted, and hospitality reopening – not anything related to “America back to work”. After all, we’re still seeing jobless claims north of 700K.
Like a year ago, we’re still ~10 million jobs short of the labor top.
And today’s leading gigs are not going to drive the labor market anywhere.
US — Major League Baseball has announced that they will no longer be requiring any form of valid ID for the purchase of alcohol at all games.
“We stand firm against racism and will never again require ID, and unfairly restrict people from purchasing alcohol,” said MLB spokesman Doug Wisacre. “Drinks are for everyone and hydration should always be easier to access, not harder!”
“Not everyone has the same level of access to acquiring an ID and we want to create an inclusive environment.” Mr. Wiseacre continued. “That’s why we will serve beer to all fans, no fuss no muss!”
In addition to not checking for ID, MLB is committing to no longer requiring locker room passes, or security badges which are harmful and unfairly discriminate against those who would want to enter restricted areas for nefarious reasons. They hope that this important step will provide more fairness and increase safety at all games.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!” Was there a man dismayed? Not though the soldier knew Someone had blundered. Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. Into the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
Immortalized by Tennyson in his 1854 poem “The Charge of the Light Brigade” published in The Examiner, praising the brigade (“When can their glory fade? O the wild charge they made!”) while trenchantly mourning the appalling futility of the charge (“Not tho’ the soldier knew, someone had blunder’d… Charging an army, while all the world wonder’d”).
I won’t retrace the insanity of the Crimean War. You might want to check it out for yourself.
Wiki has a nice summary.
The Charge of the Light Brigade was a failed military action involving the British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava on 25 October 1854 in the Crimean War. Lord Raglan had intended to send the Light Brigade to prevent the Russians from removing captured guns from overrun Turkish positions, a task for which the light cavalry were well-suited. However, there was miscommunication in the chain of command and the Light Brigade was instead sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery, one well-prepared with excellent fields of defensive fire. The Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, but they were forced to retreat immediately, and the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains.
What is it with the Brits and their taste for pointless gestures? The “last stand” legacy of their colonial wars that reached its apex in the Great War and the disaster at Mons? The pointless slaughter at Ypres and the Somme?
Repeated again a generation later with their futile guarantee of Polish independence when the socialist dictatorships swept away the Versailles construct that was “Poland” and restored imperial borders. Poland never had a chance, and the Brits couldn’t guarantee the borders. But their gesture got themselves into a war in which they could not win.
In World War 2.0, the BEF once again advanced into Belgium to the line of the Dyle River. And, again, just as quickly retreated after the German breakthrough at the Battle of Sedan (12–15 May). The BEF, French and Belgian forces north of the Somme River outran the German Army to Dunkirk which, as with all Brit “last stands” manufactured a “victory” in defeat.
And so, now it’s our turn in Crimea?
Seems that’s what our Sock Puppet President wants.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was reestablished as an independent state in 1991, and most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, while the city of Sevastopol retained its special status within Ukraine. The 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet partitioned the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet and allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea: both the Ukrainian Naval Forces and Russian’s Black Sea Fleet were to be headquartered in Sevastopol. Ukraine extended Russia’s lease of the naval facilities under the 2010 Kharkiv Pact in exchange for further discounted natural gas.
A Crimea-wide referendum was held on the issue of reunification with Russia; its official results showed over 90% support for reunification, however, the vote was boycotted by many loyal to Ukrain and declared illegitimate by Western governments and the United Nations. Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014, incorporating the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol as the 84th and 85th federal subjects of Russia.
Recall Corrupt Joe Inc. (a family business) has been cashing in on Ukraine for quite some time. Seems we’re into guaranteeing Ukraine’s military adventure.
Should we expect Russia might guarantee Venezuelan adventures in reply. What might we do in that case?
Well, I presume some serious military mobilization.
Sort of like what Michael Snyder describes is happening right now.
At this hour, more Russian military forces are massed near Ukraine’s borders than we have ever seen before. Western military leaders say that they are concerned that the troop movements that we have witnessed in recent days may be leading up to an invasion, and if an invasion does happen it will greatly test the resolve of the Biden administration, EU leaders and NATO brass. In particular, the hawks in the Biden administration would almost certainly not be willing to just sit back and let the Russians conquer all of Ukraine. There would likely be a major response by the United States, and that could set off a chain reaction that could ultimately spark World War 3.
So what made the Russians suddenly move a massive invasion force toward Ukraine?
Well, it turns out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky essentially signed a declaration of war against Russia on March 24th. The document that he signed is known as Decree No. 117/2021, and you won’t read anything about it in the corporate media.
Read the rest here – some great road photos of Russian artillery and armor heading to the border:
Note – the Russians aren’t sending their “National Guard” – Федеральная служба войск национальной гвардии Российской Федераци. Nope, they are sending first-line troops to the border: the 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade. The brigade was first formed in 1979 and fought in the Soviet–Afghan War, the 1st & 2nd Chechen War.
Check them out:
So, when US-backed provocation is met by Russian counter-force, what’s the US/Ukraine response?
I get that Joe Biden Inc. has some dough on the line in Ukraine. But, is all this worth it? Is confronting Russia on its border in land that is demographically Russian worth the risk?
And when Russia doubles-down – as they said they will – how far will we meet each “raise”?
Can we prevail in Crimea? Doubtful unless we are willing to go “all-in”.
Judith Curry observes taking into account all potential errors leaves the true range of validity of this imbalance of the order of hundreds of percent, thus challenging the narrative of a ticking time bomb accumulated in the ocean depths.
The take-away is a small change in energy balance can have measurable impacts on climate temperature.
Zharkhova (2021) modeled the daily ephemeris of Sun-Earth distances in two millennia (600–2600), and explains the two-millennial variations (Hallstatt’s cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field measured from Earth. These S-E distance variations translate to variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) with increases in February–June by up to 10–12 W-m-2 in M1 and 14–18 W-m-2 in M2. Note these variations exceed the imbalances attributed to measured GHG concentration increases.
The annual TSI magnitudes, calculated from the daily S-E distances reveal a much larger annual increase of the total solar irradiance by about 20–25 W-m-2 by 2500 in M2 compared to millennium M1. This means there is an excess of solar radiation input into the terrestrial atmosphere in millennium M2 not accounted for by any other consideration that has to be considered for the solar forcing.
For the present, the Sun entered the period of a reduced solar activity in 2020: the Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053). Zharkova anticipates a decrease of solar irradiance during this GSM is expected to be about 3 W-m-2, or 0.22%.
Kramer, R. J., He, H., Soden, B. J., Oreopoulos, L., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., & Smith, C. J. (2021). Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(e2020GL091585). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091585
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., & Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth’s global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(3), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1
Zharkova, V., (2021). Millennial Oscillations of Solar Irradiance and Magnetic Field in 600–2600. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.96450
That lead quote can easily adapt to our Monetary Politburo – why have a market if the whole thing is nothing but a show?
Of course, the “market” is about enriching those close to the Fed’s spigot.
But, as I often do, I digress.
Consider Imperium – the Emerald City astride the Potomac – and look at it as you might look at Rome astride its Tiber.
We’ve seen this movie before. Here’s the story as told by Cassius Dio in his Roman History, Vol. VIII, Book LXIII
There was a Gaul named Gaius Julius Vindex, an Aquitanian, descended from the royal race and by virtue of his father’s status a Roman senator. He was powerful in body and of shrewd intelligence, was skilled in warfare and full of daring for any great enterprise; and he had a passionate love of freedom and a vast ambition. This was the man who stood at the head of the Gauls.
This Vindex called together the Gauls, who had suffered much by the numerous forced levies of money and were still suffering at Nero’s hands. And ascending a tribunal he delivered a long and detailed speech against Nero, saying that they ought to revolt from the emperor and join the speaker in an attack upon him, “because,” as he said, “he has despoiled the whole Roman world, because hehas destroyed all the flower of the senate, because he debauched and then killed his mother, and does not preserve even the semblance of sovereignty.
Simply put, Vindex spoke to the crowds and said: “Iterum fac Romae magna”
In AD 65, unrest spread throughout the Roman Empire, in response to the increasingly despotic rule of Nero. It started with the Pisonian conspiracy, which was an attempt to restore the Republic. Nero’s suppression of it reduced his support in the Senate, which led to further instability. In AD 68, Gaius Julius Vindex rebelled against Nero’s tax policy in Gaul. His plan was to replace Nero with a provincial governor named Galba.
This revolt was put down by the legions stationed at the border with Germania. Vindex committed suicide and Galba was declared an enemy of the state. The instability opened the door for an ambitious Praetorian Guard prefect to launch a plot whereby the guard would shift their loyalty from Nero to Galba. Not long after, Nero committed suicide and what followed was the Year of the Four Emperors.
The relevance to this age is that what followed was a long period in which the real power in the Roman Empire had no official role. The Praetorian Guard could make or break an emperor, so they had real power, but they existed outside the rest of the political structure. The American Empire appears to have entered a similar period, in which it is not entirely clear who is in charge of the state.“Why have elections if the whole thing is nothing but a show?”
This was made clear last week when Joe Biden held his first official press conference of his administration. Biden was disoriented and slow in his responses, even though the questions were submitted in advance and he had prepared answers. At one point he stopped pretending and just read a statement about North Korea off his sheet. His struggle to do that underscored the fact that he is president in name only.
Now, this is not a revelation. During the campaign it was clear that Biden was a shambling husk of a man. The internet was full of hackneyed jokes about his campaign being “Weekend at Biden’s” or operating out of a nursing home. It was clear that while Biden was the candidate, he had no role in his campaign, other than to shuffle out on stage when told to by his handlers. He was just a figurehead.
To be fair, few politicians in the modern age have control of their lives. They are more like prizefighters than political leaders. An organization exists around them that is composed of the interests financing their campaigns. The job of the politician is to perform when needed, but the day-to-day running of his office and political life is left to the professionals who manage him, just like a prizefighter.
Even so, it is assumed that the organization that forms around a politician is an organic thing, arising from his popular appeal and stated positions. Rand Paul Inc. is the result of Rand Paul being a goofy libertarian. Chuck Schumer Inc. is the result of his crisp understanding of whose interests he serves. Wall Street did not hire Chuck Schumer as their senator. They were drawn to him by his willingness to serve their interests.
With Joe Biden, we have something different. An existing organization, most likely the remnants of the Obama administration augmented by units from the semipermanent ruling class, has installed Biden as the titular head of the cabal. Most likely, they auctioned off the VP slot. Kamala Harris proved to be as popular as rectal cancer in the primaries, but she somehow ended up as VP.
The result is we have the first purely theatrical presidency. Biden-Harris are just actors playing a role. Neither of them has any say in policy. Biden is unable to form enough sentences to articulate anything more than a lunch order. Harris is just a marionette that no one would bother asking for an opinion. Biden’s struggles with dementia underscore the absurdity of her placement on the ticket.
All of this makes for some amusing commentary, but running the empire is serious business and it has an impact on our lives. The whole point of popular government is the people have some say in who is in charge and hold them accountable. If who is in charge is a secret, then the whole reason for popular government goes out the window. Why have elections if the whole thing is nothing but a show?
The Praetorian Guard problem for Rome lasted until 312 AD when Constantine defeated them at the Battle of the Milvian Bridge. Things move faster in this age, so it will not take 300 years for the problem of a shadow government to be resolved. It will not take a few emperors before people figure out we have a shadow government that is beyond the reach of the official political system.
The question for now is who is really in charge? The Praetorian Guard were visible for all to see, even if their role was not always clear. Our shadow government operates outside public view. Wall Street and Silicon Valley provide the money, for sure, but who is the hub of this wheel of intrigue? Who is running this conspiracy of shadows? Biden’s sad performance is putting that question in everyone’s mind now.
In another piece, Taki nails our future:
I believe it was Abe Lincoln who predicted that America would become a great superpower whose demise would come by suicide. Like a venereal disease uncontrollably spreading, wokeness will cause the final collapse of the republic. Major publications owned by white billionaires are digging America’s grave, spreading the poison that white is evil and has to be eradicated along with white history, white art, white literature, and white movies. Oprah is a self-made lady who realized earlier than most that self-centeredness had become the most cherished value in American minds. Nothing else mattered but me, me, me, me. As long as thirty years ago, the “Oprahization” of America was discussed in these here pages. H and MM were naturals for her. A dysfunctional family is to Oprah what a French fortified town is to a Panzer commander: meat for the taking. Narcissism is to TV what Paganini was to the violin. Meghan will one day replace Oprah as America’s auntie, will make billions, and will permit Harry to graze peacefully at a California farm. You read it here first.
Sort of reminds me of some Fortune 500 Woke companies I’ve frequented in my career.
But, I digress.
QUEENS, NY—In a courageous new episode of Sesame Street, the puppets teach kids about social justice by introducing a new character, Todd– a white male puppet who is blamed for everything wrong in the world.
Minutes into the episode, Todd is introducing himself to the other puppets and a prescriptively diverse cast of guest children, when he is confronted by Grover about Todd’s culpability regarding a distant ancestor who fought for the Confederacy.
Later on, Todd works alongside the puppet Abby Cadabby to stock the shelves of Hooper’s store with Goya beans. His accidental revelation that he gets paid 30% more than her leads to Abby singing a tearful rendition of ‘Workforce Woes.’
The episode’s final sketch portrays Todd selling cookies without the requisite health warning labels, forcing Cookie Monster into obesity and skyrocketing healthcare costs.
In an upcoming 17-part series entitled “R is for Racism”, Todd appears in multiple educational scenarios including a math teacher forcing minority puppets to learn 2 + 2 = 4, an ignorant puppet who thinks some cops might be good, and in a particularly jarring sketch, a shady character teaching kids to face life’s unfairness with hard work, self-sacrifice, and hope for the future.
I had one of those racist math teachers. More than a few math teachers who considered mathematics the only thing worth knowing. They were nuns who took a vow of poverty and no grief from punk Brooklyn kids. I still recall Sister Delores in class smacking around more than a few 13 year old boys who had trouble with respecting authority.
The Civil War was long done when my immigrant grandparents got here with no money and no handouts available to them. They told me they wouldn’t accept a dime anyway.
Metzl begins by taking a baseball bat to the WHO “investigation”, blasting it as a “Study Tour”
Jamie Metzl: I wouldn’t really call what’s happened now an investigation. It’s essentially a highly-chaperoned, highly-curated study tour.
Lesley Stahl: Study tour?
Jamie Metzl: Study tour. Everybody around the world is imagining this is some kind of full investigation. It’s not. This group of experts only saw what the Chinese government wanted them to see.
Jamie Metzl: We would have to ask the question, “Well, why in Wuhan?” To quote Humphrey Bogart, “Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, why Wuhan?” What Wuhan does have is China’s level four virology institute, with probably the world’s largest collection of bat viruses, including bat coronaviruses.
Lesley Stahl: I had seen that the World Health Organization team only spent 3 hours at the lab.
Jamie Metzl:While they were there they didn’t demand access to the records and samples and key personnel.
That’s because of the ground rules China set with the WHO, which has never had the authority to make demands or enforce international protocols.
Jamie Metzl: It was agreed first that China would have veto power over – over who even got to be on the mission. Secondly –
Lesley Stahl: And WHO agreed to that.
Jamie Metzl: WHO agreed to that. On top of that, the WHO agreed that in most instances China would do the primary investigation.
And then just share its findings –
Lesley Stahl: No.
Jamie Metzl: – with these international experts. So these international experts weren’t allowed to do their own primary investigation.
Lesley Stahl: Wait. You’re saying that China did the investigation and showed the results to the committee and that was it?
Jamie Metzl: Pretty much that –
Lesley Stahl: Whoa.
On the other side is Peter Daszak, a member of the WHO team, and from the EcoHealth Alliance.
EcoHealth Alliance, Daszak’s nonprofit group, routed $600,000 in taxpayer funds to the WIV in form of subgrants as part of a project to study bat-based coronaviruses in China, funding that was terminated by the National Institutes of Health in May 2020.
From the onset of the pandemic, Daszak has denied he has a conflict of interest with the WIV, a claim that Rutgers University professor of chemical biology Richard H. Ebright said in April was a “brazen lie.”
After several minutes of equivocating, Stahl forced Daszak to admit the incontrovertible truth: that the WHO has no real evidence to disprove the lab leak. Essentially, the team is just taking China’s word for it, according to Daszak. What choice did they have?
Peter Daszak: The theory is that somehow that virus got from a bat into one of these wildlife farms. And then the animals were shipped into the market. And they contaminated people while they were handling them, chopping them up, killing them, whatever you do before you cook an animal.
Lesley Stahl: Wild animals?
Peter Daszak: Yeah, these–
Lesley Stahl: Like what?
Peter Daszak: They’re a traditional food. Civets, these are like ferrets. There’s also an animal called a ferret badger. Rabbits, which we know can carry the virus. Those animals were coming into the market from farms over 1,000 miles away.
Lesley Stahl: Were you able to test any of the animals found in the Wuhan market for the virus?
Peter Daszak: Well, the China team had done that, and they found a few animals left in freezers. They tested them, they were negative. But the fact that those animals are there is the clue.
Lesley Stahl: But there’s no direct evidence that any of those animals were actually infected with the bat virus?
Peter Daszak: Correct. Now what we’ve gotta do is go to those farms and investigate. Talk to the farmers. Talk to their relatives. Test them. See if there were spikes in virus there first.
Lesley Stahl: So, the team doesn’t actually know if any of the farmers or the truckers were ever infected?
Peter Daszak: No one knows yet. No one’s been there. No one’s asked them. No one’s tested them. That’s to be done.
Hilariously, Daszak said Chinese government “minders” were in the room with the investigators at all times.
Peter Daszak: We met with them. We said, “Do you audit the lab?” And they said, “Annually.” “Did it you audit it after the outbreak?” “Yes.” “Was anything found?” “No.” “Do you test your staff?” “Yes.” No one was–
Lesley Stahl: But you’re just taking their word for it.
Peter Daszak:Well, what else can we do? There’s a limit to what you can do and we went right up to that limit. We asked them tough questions. They weren’t vetted in advance. And the answers they gave, we found to be believable– correct and convincing.
Lesley Stahl: But weren’t the Chinese engaged in a cover-up? They destroyed evidence, they punished scientists who were trying to give evidence on this very question of the origin.
Peter Daszak: Well, that wasn’t our task to find out if China had covered up the origin issue.
Lesley Stahl: No, I know. I’m just saying doesn’t that make you wonder?
Peter Daszak: We didn’t see any evidence of any false reporting or cover-up in the work that we did in China.
Lesley Stahl: Were there Chinese government minders in the room every time you were asking questions?
Peter Daszak:There were Ministry of Foreign Affairs staff in the room throughout our stay. Absolutely. They were there to make sure everything went smoothly from the China side.
Lesley Stahl: Or to make sure they weren’t telling you the whole truth and nothing but the truth–
Peter Daszak: You sit in a room with people who are scientists and you know what a scientific statement is and you know what a political statement is. We had no problem distinguishing between the two.
Speaking of political statements…
Geopolitics loomed over the entire inquiry with some tit for tats: Beijing said COVID-19 originated in the U.S.; the Trump administration accused China of a cover-up.
Matt Pottinger: There was a direct order from Beijing to destroy all viral samples — and they didn’t volunteer to share the genetic sequences.
Econophysics2020 