Tim Knight (Slope of Hope) on “Cruisin for a Bruisin”: https://slopeofhope.com/2021/04/cruising-for-a-bruising-4.html
I believe the entire cruise industry has topped out; each of these three cruise giants have stalled beneath years of overhead supply and, I believe, are sailing into treacherous waters:
"Tubes one and two, fire when matched!"
Robert Gore teaches some great truths in his “Everything I Know About Business I Learned From The Godfather.”
I grew up in that neighborhood so I never needed to read Gore. I got it every day. Bodies dumped in allies, Grazy Joey Gallo, Colombo. I lived within 200 feet of Don Carlo Gambino’s house. Very generous to all the kids visiting for trick or treat. Safest block in Brooklyn.
One of my favorite movies is “Margin Call.” Jeremy Irons plays John Tuld who runs an investment bank who suddenly finds itself sitting on illiquid assets far in excess of their risk capital.
Tuld has some great quotes as risk management briefs the executive committee, including “There are three ways to make a living in this business. Be first, be smarter, or cheat.” Knowing they need to exit ahead of market recognition of the bottom falling, Tuld plans to exit his positions ahead of everyone else.
Navesink offers a great summary of the Archegos debacle: https://navesinkinternational.com/2021/04/04/archegos-the-questions-nobody-asks/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Navesink-International-April-2021.
Unlike “John Tuld”, Archegos wasn’t first to the exit. Nor was CS.
There has been a lot of press articles on the Archegos blow-up already, but many important questions have still not been asked.
Archegos was estimated to have $10 bn of capital at the time of the events.
Note: by comparison, in 2007, Lehman’s leverage was 31, while its large mortgage securities portfolio made it highly susceptible to the deteriorating market conditions. On March 17, 2008, due to concerns that Lehman would be the next Wall Street firm to fail following Bear Stearns’ near-collapse, its shares plummeted nearly 48%. They subsequently pulled off a capital raise, and boosted its liquidity pool to an estimated $45 billion, decreased gross assets by $147 billion, reduced its exposure to residential and commercial mortgages by 20%, and cut down leverage from a factor of 32 to about 25. By September 2008, they were down to $1 billion.
Back to the Archegos story.
Now, there are inconsistencies in the currently available information. Here are some of the questions which needs to be asked:
IMO, we do not have enough information at this stage to truly understand what happened. In other words, the SEC needs to open an investigation… if it has not started already.
This investigation will be private, but some statements will surely follow in the months and years to come…
Clearly, somebody needs to explain where the $10 billion came from in words simple enough a golden retriever can understand.
The BLS jobs report shows a trend that’s years from a recovery.
Total nonfarm payroll employment up 916,000 in March, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.0 percent. But when you unpack things, it’s a bit squishy.
The 916K was led by gains in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.
Leisure and hospitality took 280,000 of the total. Construction grabbed 110,000 while government schools claimed 76,000.
Let’s look back a year to see what the trend was then – 347,000 in March 2020 which was essentially continuing the flatline from Summer 2019.
When you throw in the U-6 and the “not in the workforce but looking” cohort, that 6.0 percent unemployment looks more like 13.4% – reinforcing the “flatline” trend.
Teachers finally going back to work, construction projects restarted, and hospitality reopening – not anything related to “America back to work”. After all, we’re still seeing jobless claims north of 700K.
Like a year ago, we’re still ~10 million jobs short of the labor top.
And today’s leading gigs are not going to drive the labor market anywhere.
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) presenting an increasingly well-defined ascending triangle.
Consolidation likely in-process.
Trade wisely, my friends
As the Sun enters the Modern Minimum, we continue to see temperatures fall versus the the 20-year warming period that just ended.
Full dataset available here: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
No surprise, the snowpack is starting to build at 2-3 sigma above long-term trends, and now at 500 gigtaons north of the 1982-2012 average.
Babylon Bee Exclusive: https://babylonbee.com/news/mlb-games-to-no-longer-require-id-for-buying-alcoholic-beverages
US — Major League Baseball has announced that they will no longer be requiring any form of valid ID for the purchase of alcohol at all games.
“We stand firm against racism and will never again require ID, and unfairly restrict people from purchasing alcohol,” said MLB spokesman Doug Wisacre. “Drinks are for everyone and hydration should always be easier to access, not harder!”
“Not everyone has the same level of access to acquiring an ID and we want to create an inclusive environment.” Mr. Wiseacre continued. “That’s why we will serve beer to all fans, no fuss no muss!”
In addition to not checking for ID, MLB is committing to no longer requiring locker room passes, or security badges which are harmful and unfairly discriminate against those who would want to enter restricted areas for nefarious reasons. They hope that this important step will provide more fairness and increase safety at all games.
No IDs at the tap – no IDs at Will-Call.
Less hate’n – more participat’n.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Immortalized by Tennyson in his 1854 poem “The Charge of the Light Brigade” published in The Examiner, praising the brigade (“When can their glory fade? O the wild charge they made!”) while trenchantly mourning the appalling futility of the charge (“Not tho’ the soldier knew, someone had blunder’d… Charging an army, while all the world wonder’d”).
I won’t retrace the insanity of the Crimean War. You might want to check it out for yourself.
Wiki has a nice summary.
The Charge of the Light Brigade was a failed military action involving the British light cavalry led by Lord Cardigan against Russian forces during the Battle of Balaclava on 25 October 1854 in the Crimean War. Lord Raglan had intended to send the Light Brigade to prevent the Russians from removing captured guns from overrun Turkish positions, a task for which the light cavalry were well-suited. However, there was miscommunication in the chain of command and the Light Brigade was instead sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery, one well-prepared with excellent fields of defensive fire. The Light Brigade reached the battery under withering direct fire and scattered some of the gunners, but they were forced to retreat immediately, and the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains.
What is it with the Brits and their taste for pointless gestures? The “last stand” legacy of their colonial wars that reached its apex in the Great War and the disaster at Mons? The pointless slaughter at Ypres and the Somme?
Repeated again a generation later with their futile guarantee of Polish independence when the socialist dictatorships swept away the Versailles construct that was “Poland” and restored imperial borders. Poland never had a chance, and the Brits couldn’t guarantee the borders. But their gesture got themselves into a war in which they could not win.
In World War 2.0, the BEF once again advanced into Belgium to the line of the Dyle River. And, again, just as quickly retreated after the German breakthrough at the Battle of Sedan (12–15 May). The BEF, French and Belgian forces north of the Somme River outran the German Army to Dunkirk which, as with all Brit “last stands” manufactured a “victory” in defeat.
And so, now it’s our turn in Crimea?
Seems that’s what our Sock Puppet President wants.
Crimea was colonized by the Greeks, the Persians, the Romans, the Byzantine Empire, the Crimean Goths, the Genoese and the Ottoman Empire, while at the same time its interior was occupied by a changing cast of invading steppe nomads and empires, such as the Cimmerians, Scythians, Sarmatians, Goths, Alans, Bulgars, Huns, Khazars, Kipchaks, Mongols and the Golden Horde. Crimea and adjacent territories were united in the Crimean Khanate during the 15th to 18th century.
In 1783, Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire as the result of the Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774).
Following the Russian Revolution of 1917, Crimea became an autonomous republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic in the USSR. During World War II, Crimea was downgraded to the Crimean Oblast after its entire indigenous population, the Crimean Tatars, were deported to Central Asia, an act recognized as a genocide by Ukraine and three other countries. In 1954, it was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SFSR.[5]
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was reestablished as an independent state in 1991, and most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, while the city of Sevastopol retained its special status within Ukraine. The 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet partitioned the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet and allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea: both the Ukrainian Naval Forces and Russian’s Black Sea Fleet were to be headquartered in Sevastopol. Ukraine extended Russia’s lease of the naval facilities under the 2010 Kharkiv Pact in exchange for further discounted natural gas.
In February 2014, following the 2014 Ukrainian revolution backed by the Obama Administration, that ousted the elected Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, Russia annexed Crimea after a military intervention by pro-Russian separatists and Russian Armed Forces.
A Crimea-wide referendum was held on the issue of reunification with Russia; its official results showed over 90% support for reunification, however, the vote was boycotted by many loyal to Ukrain and declared illegitimate by Western governments and the United Nations. Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014, incorporating the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol as the 84th and 85th federal subjects of Russia.
That brings us to the present.
Less than a month ago, the Oligarch’s Sock Puppet was awakened from his nap to sign off on $125 million in military supplies to Ukraine – or maybe “Dr.” Jill signed off – whatever. (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/03/01/us-announces-125-million-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/)
Recall Corrupt Joe Inc. (a family business) has been cashing in on Ukraine for quite some time. Seems we’re into guaranteeing Ukraine’s military adventure.
Should we expect Russia might guarantee Venezuelan adventures in reply. What might we do in that case?
Well, I presume some serious military mobilization.
Sort of like what Michael Snyder describes is happening right now.
At this hour, more Russian military forces are massed near Ukraine’s borders than we have ever seen before. Western military leaders say that they are concerned that the troop movements that we have witnessed in recent days may be leading up to an invasion, and if an invasion does happen it will greatly test the resolve of the Biden administration, EU leaders and NATO brass. In particular, the hawks in the Biden administration would almost certainly not be willing to just sit back and let the Russians conquer all of Ukraine. There would likely be a major response by the United States, and that could set off a chain reaction that could ultimately spark World War 3.
So what made the Russians suddenly move a massive invasion force toward Ukraine?
Well, it turns out that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky essentially signed a declaration of war against Russia on March 24th. The document that he signed is known as Decree No. 117/2021, and you won’t read anything about it in the corporate media.
Read the rest here – some great road photos of Russian artillery and armor heading to the border:
As Russian Tanks Move Toward Ukraine, The Globe Braces For The Possibility That World War 3 Could Soon Erupt
Note – the Russians aren’t sending their “National Guard” – Федеральная служба войск национальной гвардии Российской Федераци. Nope, they are sending first-line troops to the border: the 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade. The brigade was first formed in 1979 and fought in the Soviet–Afghan War, the 1st & 2nd Chechen War.
Check them out:
So, when US-backed provocation is met by Russian counter-force, what’s the US/Ukraine response?
Let’s let Southfront explain it.
I get that Joe Biden Inc. has some dough on the line in Ukraine. But, is all this worth it? Is confronting Russia on its border in land that is demographically Russian worth the risk?
And when Russia doubles-down – as they said they will – how far will we meet each “raise”?
Can we prevail in Crimea? Doubtful unless we are willing to go “all-in”.
To what end?
Energy imbalance is central to understanding and explaining climate change.
The NASA-Goddard simplified representations does not show any long-term imbalance; others (Trenberth, Fasullo, & Kiehl, 2009) show an “net absorbed” of 0.9 W·m-2. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) indicates a “Surface imbalance” of 0.6 ±0.17 W·m-2 (one appreciates the margin precision).
Judith Curry observes taking into account all potential errors leaves the true range of validity of this imbalance of the order of hundreds of percent, thus challenging the narrative of a ticking time bomb accumulated in the ocean depths.
The take-away is a small change in energy balance can have measurable impacts on climate temperature.
Zharkhova (2021) modeled the daily ephemeris of Sun-Earth distances in two millennia (600–2600), and explains the two-millennial variations (Hallstatt’s cycle) of the baseline solar magnetic field measured from Earth. These S-E distance variations translate to variation of total solar irradiance (TSI) with increases in February–June by up to 10–12 W-m-2 in M1 and 14–18 W-m-2 in M2. Note these variations exceed the imbalances attributed to measured GHG concentration increases.
The annual TSI magnitudes, calculated from the daily S-E distances reveal a much larger annual increase of the total solar irradiance by about 20–25 W-m-2 by 2500 in M2 compared to millennium M1. This means there is an excess of solar radiation input into the terrestrial atmosphere in millennium M2 not accounted for by any other consideration that has to be considered for the solar forcing.
For the present, the Sun entered the period of a reduced solar activity in 2020: the Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053). Zharkova anticipates a decrease of solar irradiance during this GSM is expected to be about 3 W-m-2, or 0.22%.
References:
Curry, J. A. (2021, March 28). A pertinent climate question. Retrieved April 1, 2021, from Judithcurry.com website: https://judithcurry.com/2021/03/28/a-pertinent-climate-question/
Kramer, R. J., He, H., Soden, B. J., Oreopoulos, L., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., & Smith, C. J. (2021). Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(e2020GL091585). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091585
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., & Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth’s global energy budget.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(3), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1
Zharkova, V., (2021). Millennial Oscillations of Solar Irradiance and Magnetic Field in 600–2600. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.96450
Tim Knight (Slope of Hope): https://slopeofhope.com/2021/03/rates-and-banks.html#more-195553
Let’s start with the conjecture that bonds, by way of TLT, are going to have a multi-week bounce as interest rates ease back.
If that holds true, I would speculate financial institutions are going to likewise ease back as interest rates beat a retreat.
That lead quote can easily adapt to our Monetary Politburo – why have a market if the whole thing is nothing but a show?
Of course, the “market” is about enriching those close to the Fed’s spigot.
But, as I often do, I digress.
Consider Imperium – the Emerald City astride the Potomac – and look at it as you might look at Rome astride its Tiber.
We’ve seen this movie before. Here’s the story as told by Cassius Dio in his Roman History, Vol. VIII, Book LXIII
There was a Gaul named Gaius Julius Vindex, an Aquitanian, descended from the royal race and by virtue of his father’s status a Roman senator. He was powerful in body and of shrewd intelligence, was skilled in warfare and full of daring for any great enterprise; and he had a passionate love of freedom and a vast ambition. This was the man who stood at the head of the Gauls.
This Vindex called together the Gauls, who had suffered much by the numerous forced levies of money and were still suffering at Nero’s hands. And ascending a tribunal he delivered a long and detailed speech against Nero, saying that they ought to revolt from the emperor and join the speaker in an attack upon him, “because,” as he said, “he has despoiled the whole Roman world, because he has destroyed all the flower of the senate, because he debauched and then killed his mother, and does not preserve even the semblance of sovereignty.
Simply put, Vindex spoke to the crowds and said: “Iterum fac Romae magna”
“Make Rome Great Again”.
Z-Man writes in Taki Mag, invoking Vindex in his recent essay: “President in Name Only” (https://www.takimag.com/article/president-in-name-only/).
In AD 65, unrest spread throughout the Roman Empire, in response to the increasingly despotic rule of Nero. It started with the Pisonian conspiracy, which was an attempt to restore the Republic. Nero’s suppression of it reduced his support in the Senate, which led to further instability. In AD 68, Gaius Julius Vindex rebelled against Nero’s tax policy in Gaul. His plan was to replace Nero with a provincial governor named Galba.
This revolt was put down by the legions stationed at the border with Germania. Vindex committed suicide and Galba was declared an enemy of the state. The instability opened the door for an ambitious Praetorian Guard prefect to launch a plot whereby the guard would shift their loyalty from Nero to Galba. Not long after, Nero committed suicide and what followed was the Year of the Four Emperors.
The relevance to this age is that what followed was a long period in which the real power in the Roman Empire had no official role. The Praetorian Guard could make or break an emperor, so they had real power, but they existed outside the rest of the political structure. The American Empire appears to have entered a similar period, in which it is not entirely clear who is in charge of the state.“Why have elections if the whole thing is nothing but a show?”
This was made clear last week when Joe Biden held his first official press conference of his administration. Biden was disoriented and slow in his responses, even though the questions were submitted in advance and he had prepared answers. At one point he stopped pretending and just read a statement about North Korea off his sheet. His struggle to do that underscored the fact that he is president in name only.
Now, this is not a revelation. During the campaign it was clear that Biden was a shambling husk of a man. The internet was full of hackneyed jokes about his campaign being “Weekend at Biden’s” or operating out of a nursing home. It was clear that while Biden was the candidate, he had no role in his campaign, other than to shuffle out on stage when told to by his handlers. He was just a figurehead.
To be fair, few politicians in the modern age have control of their lives. They are more like prizefighters than political leaders. An organization exists around them that is composed of the interests financing their campaigns. The job of the politician is to perform when needed, but the day-to-day running of his office and political life is left to the professionals who manage him, just like a prizefighter.
Even so, it is assumed that the organization that forms around a politician is an organic thing, arising from his popular appeal and stated positions. Rand Paul Inc. is the result of Rand Paul being a goofy libertarian. Chuck Schumer Inc. is the result of his crisp understanding of whose interests he serves. Wall Street did not hire Chuck Schumer as their senator. They were drawn to him by his willingness to serve their interests.
With Joe Biden, we have something different. An existing organization, most likely the remnants of the Obama administration augmented by units from the semipermanent ruling class, has installed Biden as the titular head of the cabal. Most likely, they auctioned off the VP slot. Kamala Harris proved to be as popular as rectal cancer in the primaries, but she somehow ended up as VP.
The result is we have the first purely theatrical presidency. Biden-Harris are just actors playing a role. Neither of them has any say in policy. Biden is unable to form enough sentences to articulate anything more than a lunch order. Harris is just a marionette that no one would bother asking for an opinion. Biden’s struggles with dementia underscore the absurdity of her placement on the ticket.
All of this makes for some amusing commentary, but running the empire is serious business and it has an impact on our lives. The whole point of popular government is the people have some say in who is in charge and hold them accountable. If who is in charge is a secret, then the whole reason for popular government goes out the window. Why have elections if the whole thing is nothing but a show?
The Praetorian Guard problem for Rome lasted until 312 AD when Constantine defeated them at the Battle of the Milvian Bridge. Things move faster in this age, so it will not take 300 years for the problem of a shadow government to be resolved. It will not take a few emperors before people figure out we have a shadow government that is beyond the reach of the official political system.
The question for now is who is really in charge? The Praetorian Guard were visible for all to see, even if their role was not always clear. Our shadow government operates outside public view. Wall Street and Silicon Valley provide the money, for sure, but who is the hub of this wheel of intrigue? Who is running this conspiracy of shadows? Biden’s sad performance is putting that question in everyone’s mind now.
In another piece, Taki nails our future:
I believe it was Abe Lincoln who predicted that America would become a great superpower whose demise would come by suicide. Like a venereal disease uncontrollably spreading, wokeness will cause the final collapse of the republic. Major publications owned by white billionaires are digging America’s grave, spreading the poison that white is evil and has to be eradicated along with white history, white art, white literature, and white movies. Oprah is a self-made lady who realized earlier than most that self-centeredness had become the most cherished value in American minds. Nothing else mattered but me, me, me, me. As long as thirty years ago, the “Oprahization” of America was discussed in these here pages. H and MM were naturals for her. A dysfunctional family is to Oprah what a French fortified town is to a Panzer commander: meat for the taking. Narcissism is to TV what Paganini was to the violin. Meghan will one day replace Oprah as America’s auntie, will make billions, and will permit Harry to graze peacefully at a California farm. You read it here first.
Econophysics2020