Last quarter, we saw collapsing consumer loan supply, tighter loan conditions, and consumer demand falling to record low levels. That was then. This is now. the latest round of bank earnings saw a collapse in loan loss provisions across the US banking sector, which miraculously plunged from near all time highs back to pre-covid levelsContinue reading “Commercial Loan Demand Crash”
“China imported 1.1 million tons of corn in September, a jump of 675% from a year earlier, according to official customs data. That was the highest level since 2016. Between January and September, inbound shipments climbed 73% to 6.67 million tons, the highest since at least 2005, data showed.” https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/china-s-2020-corn-imports-are-already-the-highest-in-15-years#:~:text=China%20imported%201.1%20million%20tons,at%20least%202005%2C%20data%20showed.
Carloads and intermodal units up 2.2% YoY. Four carload commodities showed increases over 2019, led by grain, up 23.9%; six were down, most notably coal (minus-20.1%) and petroleum and petroleum products (minus-19.1%). For the year to date, total traffic is down 9.8%, with intermodal units down 5.1% and carloads down 14.9%. https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2020/10/21-intermodal-traffic-remains-up-carloads-still-down-aar-statistics-show
“ “Step one, help yourself to tasty assets from the public trough. Step two, figure out how to keep them. “The best investment in Ukrainian history may be about to become even better—Burisma’s recruiting of Hunter Biden to its board. After a government minister allegedly awards himself lucrative gas rights, the Ukrainian people overthrow aContinue reading “Enjoy Oligarchy”
China as a rising nation. It is a nation that has risen. Source: George Friedman on Why the Future Is Never What We Expect
September imports strong and exports weak. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/10/la-area-port-traffic-strong-imports.html?m=1
With Senator Chuck Schumer covering their backs under CARES Act stimulus, mega banks don’t need to think much about reserving for losses on financial instruments under Current Expected Credit Losses or CECL (pronounced Cecil). So, what kind of reserves are indicated? A lot less than the Crash.