Trend’s your friend until it ends. And it looks like a trend just ended – specifically, the inflation (TIPS) – long-term Treasuries (TLT) ratio trend. Time to reshuffle the deck to long-TIPS?
Author Archives: econophysics2020
Black Monday: October 19, 1987
Nothing was ever the same after that day. From here, the Fed beginning a 34 year long suppression of interest rates at a level never seen before. Global Macro Monitor tells the tale: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/18/black-monday-1987-inside-the-u-s-treasury-2/ The following exchange took place between President Reagan and reporters after the market close on Black Monday, October 19, 1987. LeavingContinue reading “Black Monday: October 19, 1987”
Living in Potemkin World
The Burning Platform: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2021/10/17/living-in-a-potemkin-world “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in whichContinue reading “Living in Potemkin World”
Insurrection!!!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10098329/Dozens-climate-activists-arrested-clash-cops-Interior-Department.html We need a 10-15 Commission!!! Where are trigger-happy Capitol Cops when they are most needed? Call up the National Guard!!! Deploy the barbed wire fence. Lock em’ up in solitary!!! Not since 9-11 and the Civil War!!! God save the Republic!!!! The woke storm DC: Dozens of ‘extreme’ climate change activists dubbed ‘People vsContinue reading “Insurrection!!!!”
What Next?
So here we are – ~150 pts below the 50 dma with what could be a sideways wedge forming. No mans land. If the market is going to recover, it needs a decisive move up over the 50-dma. And so we wait
Bonds Away!
The US bond market may be closed, but it was fully open in China, and locals took advantage of this fact to do one thing: sell. In the aftermath of our viral post “”Catastrophic” Property Sales Mean China’s Worst Case Scenario Is Now In Play“, China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball onContinue reading “Bonds Away!”
Peak Ponzi: Domino Theory
Evergrande: Companies like Evergrande. Junk companies borrowing USDs at 20%+ comprising ~35 “significant” companies representing 12.5% of the current market cap of the Red Ponzi property sector has already lost some $500 billion to date. These companies develop and sell the 85% of homes bought as investment property – speculators – facing to be a seriousContinue reading “Peak Ponzi: Domino Theory”
Ball. Court. Germany: how do you like those 2000EURs/month heating bills?
Gold, Goats, and Guns: https://tomluongo.me/2021/10/06/european-energy-crisis-gas-you-think-burning/ The European Gas Crisis keeps hitting new high after new high as gas prices around the world go ballistic. While this isn’t just a European problem, if you read the MSM, that’s all they seem to care about. You know, it snows in Japan as well folks, and China.Continue reading “Ball. Court. Germany: how do you like those 2000EURs/month heating bills?”
Fed End Game or “Ending the Game of Fed”
US debt is currently ~$29 trillion – up ~$6 trillion in 2 years. All signs are Joe “10% for the Big Guy” intneds to double that rate this year even as supply chains are incapable of handing the modest economic growth to date. No surprise, the 14% inflation we’re seeing (yes – it’s 14%) isContinue reading “Fed End Game or “Ending the Game of Fed””
Coal for Christmas – China’s Supply Chain in Crisis
Human Terrain: https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/coal-for-christmas In mid-April 2021, I began receiving reports from sources in China and the United States that certain regions in China had begun to experience ongoing power disruptions at their warehouses and manufacturing facilities. Most notable of these was in south China’s Guangdong megaregion, where in June operations at the Taishan Nuclear PowerContinue reading “Coal for Christmas – China’s Supply Chain in Crisis”